Jul 14, 2025 - Energy & Climate
How the new budget law will slow clean energy deployments
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Analysts trying to game out how the budget law will affect different technologies are coming up with stark conclusions.
The latest: A new Rhodium Group analysis explores three scenarios based on varying fossil fuel prices, GDP levels, and tech costs.
- All show big declines in new wind and solar projects relative to the status quo, though other tech is affected too.
- "We project that new clean capacity additions to the grid will shrink by 57-62% from 2025 through 2035 relative to the baseline," it states.
State of play: Other estimates include...
- A 2%-4% increase in consumer energy costs — including transport fuels and home energy — in 2035 relative to the pre-OBBB landscape.
- A 3%-4% rise in industrial energy costs, thanks largely to higher electricity prices but also higher natural gas and petroleum costs.
- "The loss of tax credits alone results in 27-41 million fewer EVs in the light-duty vehicle stock in 2035, a 20-34% reduction from baseline," it says.
- Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of clean tech manufacturing are at risk.
What we're watching: The Treasury Department.
- Its interpretation of the intricate bill — which President Trump wants to be restrictive — will affect tech deployment rates.
