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Illustration: Sam Jayne / Axios

Private equity persistence is the theory that a firm's future returns can be predicted by its past returns. But persistence is declining, and it could threaten the entire asset class.

Why persistence matters: Limited partners in private equity funds are asked to invest in blind pools, so persistence gives them greater confidence. Particularly if they are new to the asset class. Moreover, persistence enables industry growth, as top performers are able to raise larger and larger funds.

What's new: MIT economist Antoinette Schoar, whose early aughts research helped popularize persistence, recently presented preliminary data that shows persistence is declining, particularly in terms of top-quartile performance.

Per Schoar's analysis, which measures persistence against immediate predecessor funds:

Same-quartile persistence:
  • 1995-1999: 33%
  • 2000-2004: 33%
  • 2005-2009: 25%
  • 2010-2013: 22%
Top-quartile persistence:
  • 1995-1999: 31%
  • 2000-2004: 28%
  • 2005-2009: 13%
  • 2010-2013: 12%

Schoar says that her final data should be published within the next two months.

Go deeper

Updated 37 mins ago - World

Trudeau's government projected to win Canada election

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Photo: Jeff Vinnick/Getty Images

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal government has been reelected in the national election, the CBC and CTV News projected on Monday night.

By the numbers: The Liberal Party needs to win 170 seats in the 338-seat House of Commons to form a majority government. Preliminary figures show the party ahead with 156 seats at midnight ET, with nearly 66% of polling stations reporting.

Pelosi's back-to-school math problem

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) may need votes from an unlikely source — the Republican Party — if she hopes to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill by next Monday, as she's promised Democratic centrists.

Why it matters: With at least 20 progressives threatening to vote against the $1.2 trillion bipartisan bill, centrist members are banking on more than 10 Republicans to approve the bill.

By the numbers: Haitian emigration

Expand chart
Data: CBP; Chart: Sara Wise/Axios

The number of Haitians crossing the U.S.-Mexico border had been rising even before their country's president was assassinated in July and the island was struck by an earthquake a month later.

Why it matters: A spike during the past few weeks — leaving thousands waiting in a makeshift camp under a bridge in Del Rio, Texas — has prompted a crackdown and deportations by the Biden administration.