Photo Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

Bernie Sanders has opened up leads in both Iowa and New Hampshire, according to most recent polls.

The big picture: Private equity might be hyperventilating into a paper bag, but it should be breathing a sigh of relief. At least temporarily.

The state of play: Buyout firms face an existential threat from either a Sanders or Warren presidency, but much more of a rhetorical threat from Warren's campaign.

  • Sanders wants to largely dismantle modern capitalism, which would include private equity. In short, burn down the house and rebuild from scratch.
  • Warren wants to "fix" modern capitalism, believing private equity is one of its most broken pieces. A remodel with private equity in the driveway dumpster.

Between the lines: If Sanders were to win the nomination, or remain a contender until the final primaries, it's unlikely that he'll mention private equity very often (outside of generalist broadsides against Wall Street and the 1%).

  • Warren, on the other hand, would keep hammering private equity hard, particularly if and when we get the next brand-name bankruptcy or Taylor Swift tweet.
  • Industry-specific rhetoric matters because, no matter the president, it can filter down into legislative perceptions and policies (including at the state and local levels).

The bottom line: Again, my needle-threading argument isn't about the ultimate White House winner. Private equity should fear both Sanders and Warren in the Oval. But if only one of them can remain viable for longer before falling, then buyout barons should hope for the self-described Democratic socialist.

Go deeper: Private equity firms fear a Democrat topping Trump in 2020

Go deeper

1 hour ago - Science

3 dead and thousands evacuated as Northern California fires explode

A building at the Meadowood Napa Valley luxury resort burns after the Glass Fire moved through the area on September 28, 2020 in St. Helena, California. Photo: by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Three people have died in a wildfire in Northern California and tens of thousands were evacuated across the state, as firefighters contended with strong winds and dry conditions that saw blazes explode across the state on Monday.

Driving the news: Shasta County Sheriff Eric Magrini confirmed the deaths occurred as the Zogg Fire spread across 15,000 acres, forcing the evacuation of 1,200 people. More than for 5o,000 people, per AP.

Updated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 9 p.m. ET: 33,273,720 — Total deaths: 1,000,555 — Total recoveries: 23,056,480Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9 p.m. ET: 7,147,241 — Total deaths: 205,031 — Total recoveries: 2,794,608 — Total tests: 102,342,416Map.
  3. Business: Companies are still holding back earnings guidance.
  4. Health: Trump announces plan to distribute 150 million rapid tests —The childless vaccine.
  5. Media: Fauci: Some of what Fox News reports about COVID-19 is "outlandish"
  6. States: Cuomo extends New York moratorium on evictions until 2021.
  7. World: More than 1 million people have now died from coronavirus — India the second country after U.S. to hit 6 million cases.
Dave Lawler, author of World
2 hours ago - World

Global coronavirus death toll crosses 1 million

Data: Our World in Data; Chart: Sara Wise/Axios

The global toll of confirmed deaths from COVID-19 crossed 1 million on Monday, according to data from Johns Hopkins.

By the numbers: More than half of those deaths have come in four countries: the U.S. (204,762), Brazil (141,741), India (95,542) and Mexico (76,430). The true global death toll is likely far higher.

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