Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

New polling shows that most of the public does not think President Trump has or will have a health care plan.

Driving the news: The results of the latest Kaiser Family Foundation’s tracking poll, which will be out Tuesday, show that most Republicans are sticking with Trump, but few other voters are buying his repeated promises about delivering a “phenomenal health plan.”

By the numbers: 81% of Republicans are somewhat or very confident Trump will deliver on his health care promises.

  • But 95% of Democrats and 61% of independents say they are not confident Trump will follow through on those promises.
  • In fact, just 37% of those polled were aware that Trump had promised to release a plan to replace the Affordable Care Act.

Between the lines: Trump’s argument that he’ll protect Medicare — intended as a counterweight to Medicare for All — also isn’t sticking, the poll found.

  • 49% of seniors trust Democrats to do a better job making sure seniors on Medicare are able to get the health care they need, compared with just 33% who said they trust Republicans.

What’s next: For now, this is all theoretical. But if the courts ultimately strike down the Affordable Care Act — as the Trump administration is urging them to do — then Trump will actually need a replacement.

  • Public opinion could shift quickly and sharply in that environment, even among many Republicans.

Go deeper

Supreme Court won't block Rhode Island's eased absentee voting rules

Photo: Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images

The Supreme Court said Thursday that it will not block Rhode Island's move to ease its requirements for absentee voting during November's election.

Why it matters: The decision is a loss for Republicans, who had requested an emergency order as the state is expected to begin mailing out its ballots.

Breaking down Uber and Lyft's threat to suspend services in California

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

Uber and Lyft are ratcheting up the fight with California’s state government over the classification of drivers with a move that would deprive Californians of their ride-hailing services (and halt driver income).

Driving the news: On Wednesday, both companies said that if a court doesn’t overturn or further pause a new ruling forcing them to reclassify California drivers as employees, they’ll suspend their services in the state until November’s election, when voters could potentially exempt them by passing a ballot measure.

Trump announces normalization of ties between Israel and UAE

Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu, Trump and UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed. Photo: Artur Widak/NurPhoto; Samuel Corum; Odd Andersen/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump announced a "historic" deal Thursday which will see Israel and the UAE open full diplomatic relations and Israel suspend its annexation plans in the West Bank.

Why it matters: This is a major breakthrough for Israel, which lacks diplomatic recognition in many Middle Eastern countries but has been steadily improving relations in the Gulf, largely due to mutual antipathy toward Iran.