Sep 11, 2018

Poll: Kavanaugh isn't a key issue for undecided voters in red states

Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

A group that opposes Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court is promoting a new survey that suggests his nomination won't be a key factor in the November elections for the majority of undecided voters in red states.

Why it matters: The poll by Demand Justice and YouGov counters the argument by Republicans that red-state Democrats will face a backlash from voters if they oppose his nomination.

It also suggests that Democratic senators will face more serious problems with their base voters if they do back Kavanaugh.

By the numbers:

Among likely Democratic voters in...

  • Missouri: 35% said they would be less likely to vote for Sen. Claire McCaskill if she votes for Kavanaugh.
  • Indiana: 35% said they would be less likely to vote for Sen. Joe Donnelly if he votes for Kavanaugh.
  • Florida: 31% said they would be less likely to vote for Sen. Bill Nelson if he votes for Kavanaugh.
  • West Virginia: 30% said they would be likely less to vote for Sen. Joe Manchin if he votes for Kavanaugh.
  • North Dakota: 26% said they would be likely less to vote for Sen. Heidi Heitkamp if she votes for Kavanaugh.

Among undecided voters...

  • The number of voters declaring themselves undecided in these states, or leaning toward a third-party candidate ranges between nine and 15 percent of all voters.
  • When asked specifically how the looming Kavanaugh vote would impact their preference in the Senate contest, the overwhelming majority of undecided voters in all five states said it will have no impact.
    • Florida: 80%
    • Missouri: 76%
    • Indiana: 68%
    • West Virginia: 80%
    • North Dakota: 80%

Key quote: "It is true that support for Kavanaugh’s nomination runs slightly higher in these states than it does nationally, but not by much," writes Brian Fallon, former press secretary for Hillary Clinton's campaign and head of Demand Justice. "More notably, close to a third of voters in these states aren’t sure or don’t know enough about whether Kavanaugh should be confirmed. The idea that there is some kind of groundswell of support for Kavanaugh in these states is simply not true."

Methodology: YouGov Blue partnered with Demand Justice to field a survey of 2,717 likely voters in five states: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and West Virginia. The survey was fielded online from Aug. 24 to Sept. 1, 2018. The data was weighted to a likely voter turnout universe.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 2 p.m. ET: 1,309, 439 — Total deaths: 72,638 — Total recoveries: 273,546Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 2 p.m. ET: 347, 003 — Total deaths: 10,335 — Total recoveries: 18,953Map.
  3. 2020 update: Wisconsin governor issues executive order to delay in-person primary voting until June.
  4. Public health latest: Asymptomatic children could play important role in coronavirus spread, new data from the CDC shows.
  5. States' latest: West coast states send ventilators to New York and other states experiencing a more immediate need — Data suggests coronavirus curve may be flattening in New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.
  6. Jobs latest: Unemployment could already be at 13% "and moving higher," per former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.
  7. What should I do? Pets, moving and personal health. Answers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingQ&A: Minimizing your coronavirus risk.
  8. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it.

Subscribe to Mike Allen's Axios AM to follow our coronavirus coverage each morning from your inbox.

Wisconsin governor issues order to delay in-person primary voting until June

Photo: Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) issued an executive order Monday delaying in-person voting for the state's primary election — currently scheduled for Tuesday — until June 9.

Why it matters: Wisconsin was slated to be the only state to vote on Tuesday amid the coronavirus pandemic, despite having a stay-at-home order in place.

Go deeperArrow29 mins ago - Health

U.S. coronavirus updates: Death toll reaches 10,000

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Recorded deaths from the novel coronavirus surpassed 10,000 in the U.S. on Monday, per Johns Hopkins data. More than 1,000 people in the U.S. have died of coronavirus-related conditions each day since April 1.

Why it matters: U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams said on Sunday the coming week will be "the hardest and saddest week of most Americans' lives" — calling it our "our Pearl Harbor, our 9/11 moment."

Go deeperArrowUpdated 35 mins ago - Health