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Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

A group that opposes Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court is promoting a new survey that suggests his nomination won't be a key factor in the November elections for the majority of undecided voters in red states.

Why it matters: The poll by Demand Justice and YouGov counters the argument by Republicans that red-state Democrats will face a backlash from voters if they oppose his nomination.

It also suggests that Democratic senators will face more serious problems with their base voters if they do back Kavanaugh.

By the numbers:

Among likely Democratic voters in...

  • Missouri: 35% said they would be less likely to vote for Sen. Claire McCaskill if she votes for Kavanaugh.
  • Indiana: 35% said they would be less likely to vote for Sen. Joe Donnelly if he votes for Kavanaugh.
  • Florida: 31% said they would be less likely to vote for Sen. Bill Nelson if he votes for Kavanaugh.
  • West Virginia: 30% said they would be likely less to vote for Sen. Joe Manchin if he votes for Kavanaugh.
  • North Dakota: 26% said they would be likely less to vote for Sen. Heidi Heitkamp if she votes for Kavanaugh.

Among undecided voters...

  • The number of voters declaring themselves undecided in these states, or leaning toward a third-party candidate ranges between nine and 15 percent of all voters.
  • When asked specifically how the looming Kavanaugh vote would impact their preference in the Senate contest, the overwhelming majority of undecided voters in all five states said it will have no impact.
    • Florida: 80%
    • Missouri: 76%
    • Indiana: 68%
    • West Virginia: 80%
    • North Dakota: 80%

Key quote: "It is true that support for Kavanaugh’s nomination runs slightly higher in these states than it does nationally, but not by much," writes Brian Fallon, former press secretary for Hillary Clinton's campaign and head of Demand Justice. "More notably, close to a third of voters in these states aren’t sure or don’t know enough about whether Kavanaugh should be confirmed. The idea that there is some kind of groundswell of support for Kavanaugh in these states is simply not true."

Methodology: YouGov Blue partnered with Demand Justice to field a survey of 2,717 likely voters in five states: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and West Virginia. The survey was fielded online from Aug. 24 to Sept. 1, 2018. The data was weighted to a likely voter turnout universe.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

California surpasses 50,000 COVID-19 deaths

A man prepares a funeral arrangement in in Los Angeles, California, Feb. 12. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images

California's death toll from COVID-19 surpassed 50,000 on Wednesday, per Johns Hopkins data.

The big picture: It's the first state to record more than 50,000 deaths from the coronavirus.

1 hour ago - Technology

Facebook bans Myanmar military

A protester holds a placard with a three-finger salute in front of a military tank parked aside the street in front of the Central Bank building during a demonstration in Yangon, Myanmar. Photo by Aung Kyaw Htet/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Facebook said on Wednesday it would ban the rest of the Myanmar military from its platform.

The big picture: It comes some three weeks after the military overthrew the civilian government in a coup and detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi, causing massive protests to erupt throughout the country. Military leaders have been using internet blackouts to try to maintain power in light of the coup.

It's harder to fill the Cabinet

Data: Chamberlain, 2020, "United States of America Cabinet Appointments Dataset" Chart: Will Chase/Axios

It's harder now for presidents to win Senate confirmation for their Cabinet picks, an Axios data analysis of votes for and against nominees found.

Why it matters: It's not just Neera Tanden. The trend is a product of growing polarization, rougher political discourse and slimming Senate majorities, experts say. It means some of the nation's most vital federal agencies go without a leader and the legislative authority that comes with one.