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Photo illustration by Lazaro Gamio / Axios

Politicians are often like kids: "Why did you hit your brother?" "He hit me first."

This is the simplest way to understand how the highly consequential debate over Neil Gorsuch will unfold.

Republicans will argue Gorsuch is a mainstream conservative worthy of confirmation. They will demand fair and speedy hearings and a vote to get him on the bench, tiling the court their way for at least the next four years.

But Democrats are livid Republicans denied a vote on their Supreme Court nominee for almost all of 2016, creating a new, arbitrary precedent of refusing to approve a Justice during an election year. This denied their party a Supreme Court majority, a huge deal for a party now fully out of power.

The pressure to retaliate is immense. Liberals want payback, and have very few ways to exact it: So Democrats might very well hit Republicans simply because Republicans hit them first — and block the nomination, leaving a 4-4 court. They can do this, under current rules, by locking arms and using the 60-vote threshold.

Literally with minutes of the pick, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) announced he would vote no. Soon another eight Democratic senators piled on, signaling deep skepticism or outright opposition. Watch for more to join soon.

If the rest of the party follows...

Republicans, in turn, will likely retaliate with the so-called nuclear option, essentially changing the rules requiring 60 votes for confirmation to 51.

(Click here for how the nuclear option works.)

Since there are 52 Republicans, this would virtually guarantee confirmation — and the holy grail of politics: GOP control of the White House, Senate, the House and the Supreme Court. We can't stress enough how much power this will give President Trump and his party.

And guess what they will do to justify this? Bingo: they will blame the Democrats, who a few years back changed the 60-vote rule for some federal judges and political appointees for their benefit. They will throw quotes like this in Democrats' faces.

So, welcome to the next round of payback politics. "You're an obstructionist!" "I know you are, but what am I?"

Go deeper

DiDi to delist from NYSE under Chinese govt pressure

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Chinese ride-hail giant DiDi said it will delist from the New York Stock Exchange, following a Chinese government crackdown on foreign listings.

Why it matters: This reflects how geopolitical tensions are bleeding into the capital markets.

Updated 18 mins ago - Health

Omicron cases confirmed in 5 U.S. states

A healthcare worker inserts a Covid-19 rapid test into a machine in Denver, Colorado. Photo: Daniel Brenner/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Hawaii became on Thursday the fifth state to confirm the newly discovered Omicron variant after New York announced five new cases earlier in the day.

The latest: In Hawaii, the variant was found in an unvaccinated O'ahu resident with moderate symptoms who had previously been infected with COVID-19, per a state health department statement. The variant has also been confirmed in California, Colorado and Minnesota.

Senate Dems receive max donations from Nord Stream 2 lobbyist

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

A major Democratic donor and Nord Stream 2 lobbyist has made maximum campaign contributions this year to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and vulnerable Senate Democrats, campaign finance records show.

Why it matters: If pressure from the White House to vote against reimposing sanctions on the Russia-backed natural gas pipeline weren't enough, Democrats who back such legislation also will be at loggerheads with one of their party's top fundraisers.

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