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Expand chart
Data: Money.net; Chart: Axios Visuals

The stock prices of AmerisourceBergen, Cardinal Health and McKesson plummeted yesterday after Bloomberg reported the drug distributors made an opening offer of $10 billion to settle their portion of the national opioids lawsuit.

Between the lines: That figure was a lot higher than Wall Street had expected for those companies, indicating that other defendants — including opioid manufacturers — likely would pay tens of billions of dollars to avoid going to trial.

The intrigue: The investment bank Barclays held an investor lunch in June to size up how much drug distributors could pay to settle allegations they were negligent in the shipping and monitoring of potent painkillers — allegations that have since been tied to newly released federal data.

  • A legal expert at the lunch pegged the drug wholesalers' liabilities between $1 billion and $2 billion, far below their reported initial offer and the $45 billion counter-offer from states.
  • "This may be just the starting point for negotiations, which suggests the actual liability could be higher," Barclays analysts warned Tuesday.

The bottom line: Millions of people have suffered from the opioid epidemic, and the litigation is so complex that a deal is far from certain. But the early numbers show that while a settlement would not bankrupt the major drug distributors, it's not an immaterial amount either.

  • "Even if paid out over multiple decades, it's a potentially meaningful drag," analysts at Robert W. Baird & Co. wrote.

Go deeper

The new Washington

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The Axios subject-matter experts brief you on the incoming administration's plans and team.

Rep. Lou Correa tests positive for COVID-19

Lou Correa. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Rep. Lou Correa (D-Calif.) announced on Saturday that he has tested positive for the coronavirus.

Why it matters: Correa is the latest Democratic lawmaker to share his positive test results after last week's deadly Capitol riot. Correa did not shelter in the designated safe zone with his congressional colleagues during the siege, per a spokesperson, instead staying outside to help Capitol Police.

Far-right figure "Baked Alaska" arrested for involvement in Capitol siege

Photo: Shay Horse/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The FBI arrested far-right media figure Tim Gionet, known as "Baked Alaska," on Saturday for his involvement in last week's Capitol riot, according to a statement of facts filed in the U.S. District Court in the District of Columbia.

The state of play: Gionet was arrested in Houston on charges related to disorderly or disruptive conduct on the Capitol grounds or in any of the Capitol buildings with the intent to impede, disrupt, or disturb the orderly conduct of a session, per AP.