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Data: Money.net; Chart: Axios Visuals

The stock prices of AmerisourceBergen, Cardinal Health and McKesson plummeted yesterday after Bloomberg reported the drug distributors made an opening offer of $10 billion to settle their portion of the national opioids lawsuit.

Between the lines: That figure was a lot higher than Wall Street had expected for those companies, indicating that other defendants — including opioid manufacturers — likely would pay tens of billions of dollars to avoid going to trial.

The intrigue: The investment bank Barclays held an investor lunch in June to size up how much drug distributors could pay to settle allegations they were negligent in the shipping and monitoring of potent painkillers — allegations that have since been tied to newly released federal data.

  • A legal expert at the lunch pegged the drug wholesalers' liabilities between $1 billion and $2 billion, far below their reported initial offer and the $45 billion counter-offer from states.
  • "This may be just the starting point for negotiations, which suggests the actual liability could be higher," Barclays analysts warned Tuesday.

The bottom line: Millions of people have suffered from the opioid epidemic, and the litigation is so complex that a deal is far from certain. But the early numbers show that while a settlement would not bankrupt the major drug distributors, it's not an immaterial amount either.

  • "Even if paid out over multiple decades, it's a potentially meaningful drag," analysts at Robert W. Baird & Co. wrote.

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Trump's new TikTok threat

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump said twice Monday that the U.S. Treasury would need to get a portion of the sale price of TikTok, as a condition of regulatory approval.

Why it matters: This is akin to extortion — the sort of thing you'd expect to hear on a wiretap, not from the White House in front of reporters.

Ford names James Farley as new CEO amid ongoing turnaround effort

James Hackett, left, is retiring as Ford CEO. Jim Farley, right, takes over Oct. 1. Photo: Ford

Ford announced Tuesday that James Farley will take over as its next CEO, replacing James Hackett, 65, who is retiring after three years in the job.

Why it matters: It leaves Farley to complete the company's ongoing turnaround effort. The transition will be that much harder as the industry tries to navigate the coronavirus-induced economic slowdown which shuttered Ford plants for two months on the eve of some of its most important vehicle launches.

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Watch the full "Axios on HBO" interview with President Trump

In this episode of “Axios on HBO”, President Trump discusses his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the upcoming election and much more with National Political Correspondent Jonathan Swan.

The interview was filmed on Tuesday, July 28 and aired Monday, Aug. 3 on HBO.