Saudi Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman al-Saud on Dec. 5. Photo: Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images

A new International Energy Agency report underscores why oil markets haven't been hugely impressed with last week's OPEC+ decision to deepen their output curbs.

Driving the news: The agency's latest closely watched monthly report projects that global oil stockpiles could increase by 700,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2020.

  • It also sees the "strong build in inventories" continuing in the second quarter.
  • That increase is projected even with less output from the OPEC+ countries — which deepened their cuts by 500,000 barrels per day — and slowing production growth projections for the U.S., Brazil and Ghana.

Why it matters: The projection is the latest sign of how OPEC is having a hard time exerting its sway amid the U.S. boom and other headwinds.

Where it stands: Brent crude is trading at roughly $63.97 this morning. The report notes that it was at $63-per-barrel on the eve of last week's OPEC+ meeting in Vienna.

  • "[T]he market has done its own sums and the reaction to oil’s new deal has so far been muted," IEA said.

The intrigue: The report also notes that the efficacy of the latest production-limiting deal is something of a question mark.

  • "[T]he overall effectiveness of the OPEC+ agreement depends on the willingness of all its parties to fully comply, including those whose compliance so far has been less rigorous."

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Updated 26 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 33,642,602 — Total deaths: 1,007,769 — Total recoveries: 23,387,825Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 7,191,061 — Total deaths: 205,998 — Total recoveries: 2,813,305 — Total tests: 103,155,189Map.
  3. Health: Americans won't take Trump's word on the vaccine, Axios-Ipsos poll finds.
  4. Politics: 7 former FDA commissioners say Trump is undermining agency's credibility
  5. States: NYC's coronavirus positivity rate spikes to highest since June.
  6. Sports: Tennessee Titans close facility amid NFL's first coronavirus outbreak.
  7. World: U.K. beats previous record for new coronavirus cases.
  8. Work: United States of burnout — Asian American unemployment spikes amid pandemic

In photos: Deadly wildfires devastate California's wine country

The Shady Fire ravages a home as it approaches Santa Rosa in Napa County, California, on Sept. 28. The blaze is part of the massive Glass Fire Complex, which has razed 46,600 acres at 2% containment. Photo: Samuel Corum/Agence France-Presse/AFP via Getty Images

Some 18,700 firefighters are battling 27 major blazes across California, including in the heart of the wine country, where one mega-blaze claimed the lives of three people and forced thousands of others to evacuate this week.

The big picture: 8,155 wildfires have burned across a record 3.86 million acres, killing 26 people and razing almost 7,900 structures in California this year, per Cal Fire. Just like the deadly blazes of 2017, the wine country has become a wildfires epicenter. Gov. Gavin Newsom has declared a state of emergency in Napa, Sonoma, and Shasta counties.

Mike Allen, author of AM
Updated 3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

The first Trump v. Biden presidential debate was a hot mess

Photos: Jim Watson and Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

This debate was like the country: Everybody’s talking. Nobody’s listening. Nothing is learned. It’s a mess.

  • We were told President Trump would be savage. Turned out, that was a gross understatement. Even the moderator, Fox News' Chris Wallace, got bulldozed.

Why it matters: Honestly, who the hell knows?