Sep 23, 2018

OPEC steers clear of peak demand club

OPEC's headquarters in Vienna. Photo: Omar Marques/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

OPEC's latest long-term forecast sees global oil demand rising through at least 2040, effectively rebuffing analyses released since last year's edition that project an earlier peak in the world's crude thirst.

Why it matters: The timing of the eventual peak in crude oil demand is relevant to the long-term planning of oil producers and companies — not to mention the trajectory of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions.

By the numbers: The cartel's 2018 World Oil Outlook released Sunday sees global demand growing to reach 111.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2040, which is actually a tad higher than last year's 2040 projection of 111.1 million bpd.

The intrigue: The report underscores the lack of consensus on when the world's demand for oil — which is currently around 99 million bpd and rising — will eventually crest.

  • The International Energy Agency, like OPEC, also sees global crude demand growing through at least 2040 (the final year of their forecast period).
  • But a recent analysis by the energy-focused risk advisory firm DNV GL projects a peak in 2023.
  • Royal Dutch Shell, with several caveats, has said a peak could occur by the late 2020s.
  • The central scenario in BP's long-term outlook released in February said a peak could arrive as soon as the mid-2030s.
  • The middle scenario in Norwegian energy giant Equinor's latest collection of outlooks, released in June, sees a peak around 2030.

What's next: In the nearer-term, the report sees demand for OPEC crude declining for several years after 2020, thanks to surging output from the U.S. shale boom and some other sources.

  • However, the report sees the U.S. boom peaking in the late 2020s. "Demand for OPEC crude only returns to 2017 levels by the late 2020s, when US tight oil peaks, and rises steadily thereafter," the report notes.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

Warren sees bump in national poll following Nevada debate

Photo by David Becker/Getty Images.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren surged to 19% and second place in a CBS News/YouGov national poll released Sunday, trailing front-runner Sen. Bernie Sanders (28%) but edging out Joe Biden (17%) and Michael Bloomberg (13%).

Why it matters: The poll notes that only 42% of Democratic primary voters have made up their minds. While Warren underperformed in the first three states, her strong debate performance in Nevada last week may have given her campaign new life.

Pence aide says intel report of Russia helping Trump is "false information"

Marc Short. Screenshot: Fox News

Marc Short, chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence, claimed on "Fox News Sunday" that the White House has not received intelligence that Russia is seeking to help President Trump win re-election, calling it "false information" that has been selectively leaked by Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee.

The big picture: Short and national security adviser Robert O'Brien both dismissed reports published in the Washington Post and New York Times last week about a briefing provided by top election security official Shelby Pierson, an aide to outgoing acting director of national intelligence Joseph Maguire.

Bernie's juggernaut

Sen. Bernie Sanders speaks in San Antonio last night with his wife, Jane. Photo: Eric Gay/AP

Sen. Bernie Sanders won so big in the Nevada caucuses that Democrats are hard-pressed to sketch a way he's not their nominee.

Driving the news: With 60% of precincts counted (slow, but better than Iowa!), Sanders is running away with 46% of delegates — crushing Joe Biden's 20%, Pete Buttigieg's 15%, Sen. Elizabeth Warren's 10% and Sen. Amy Klobuchar's 5%.