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On health care, moderates quiet while conservatives yell

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Only hours after the release of the Senate health care bill, four conservative senators put out a statement saying they can't support the bill in its current form. As of now, moderates have held their fire, saying they need to finish reading and analyzing the bill.

Why this matters: The best way for a member to ensure they get the changes they want is to threaten to withhold their support. Moderates haven't done that yet; conservatives have. That means the bill could very well move to the right over the next few days.

The assumption: "Moderates always cave," one senior GOP aide told me. "I don't know if conservatives will cave. That's the pickle."