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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The domestic oil sector that emerges from the pandemic-fueled price and demand collapse will be different than what preceded it. And more signs arrive every day.

Driving the news: ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance, in a newly posted interview with IHS Markit's Dan Yergin, says "shale will come back."

  • But he adds that there will be "pressure on companies to confine their capital program, maybe not grow dramatically as they were before."
  • "I don't think the access to capital in the investor community, at least in the public side of the business, is going to be as robust as it was over the last decade," he said.

What's next: Asked whether U.S. production will return to its pre-crisis peak of roughly 13 million barrels per day, he replies, "If I were a betting man, today I would say it would be pretty difficult."

  • He sees a potential return to "encroaching on" 12 million, but cautions "a lot of that depends on the shape of this recovery.”

Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal feature looks at how the distribution of shale production will change as production and demand recover, with the Permian Basin — the heart of the now-interrupted boom — becoming even more central.

The big picture: With the economics of shale expected to remain tough for a long time, companies will "concentrate on their richest targets," they report. From their piece...

  • "The Permian Basin is set to return to growth by next year and continue through 2030, consulting firms Rystad Energy and Wood Mackenzie estimate."
  • "By contrast, the Eagle Ford region of South Texas is unlikely to top its average 2019 shale-oil output until 2024, and then will decline, the firms said."
  • WSJ also notes that Rystad doesn't see oil production from the prolific Bakken region in North Dakota reaching its 2019 average until 2026.

Go deeper: Oil faces tough road back from coronavirus

Go deeper

Amazon defends working with oil companies to reach its zero-carbon goal

Kara Hurst in Seattle.

Partnering with oil and gas producers is necessary for Amazon and other companies to achieve their climate goals, the tech giant's chief of sustainability, Kara Hurst, said during an Axios virtual event on Thursday.

The big picture: Amazon aims to hit carbon neutrality in 2040, 10 years earlier than the Paris climate accord. The company plans to reach its goal in part by helping companies develop climate-friendly technologies through a $2 billion venture fund. The first recipients were announced on Thursday.

The rebellion against Silicon Valley (the place)

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Smith Collection/Gado via Getty Images

Silicon Valley may be a "state of mind," but it's also very much a real enclave in Northern California. Now, a growing faction of the tech industry is boycotting it.

Why it matters: The Bay Area is facing for the first time the prospect of losing its crown as the top destination for tech workers and startups — which could have an economic impact on the region and force it to reckon with its local issues.

Erica Pandey, author of @Work
1 hour ago - Economy & Business

Telework's tax mess

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

As teleworkers flit from city to city, they're creating a huge tax mess.

Why it matters: Our tax laws aren't built for telecommuting, and this new way of working could have dire implications for city and state budgets.