Expand chart
Data: BLS, ADP; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Most economists polled are on record predicting the U.S. added 150,000 to 180,000 jobs in November, but following Wednesday's ADP private payrolls report, which came in strongly below estimates, some are bracing for a weak number.

The big picture: Cailin Birch, global economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit, expects job creation softened significantly last month and that the economy is slowing — though she sees a "minor risk" of a looming recession.

  • "The prospects for the US economy in 2020 are fairly mediocre; we do not expect business investment to improve until there is greater clarity on the future of US trade policy and the next steps in the US-China trade war, which is unlikely until 2021," she says in an email.
  • "That said, consumer demand shows no sign of flagging, and this should help to shore up overall growth and job creation, preventing a sharper slowdown in 2020."

Yes, but: Some economists expect the jobs report to outpace expectations because of the resolution of the UAW strike at GM plants across the country, putting job gains above 200,000 and giving a boost to lagging manufacturing jobs.

Go deeper: The U.S. services sector is holding on

Go deeper

Updated 3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 10 p.m. ET: 32,471,119 — Total deaths: 987,593 — Total recoveries: 22,374,557Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 10 p.m. ET: 7,032,524 — Total deaths: 203,657 — Total recoveries: 2,727,335 — Total tests: 99,483,712Map.
  3. States: "We’re not closing anything going forward": Florida fully lifts COVID restaurant restrictions — Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam tests positive for coronavirus.
  4. Health: Young people accounted for 20% of cases this summer.
  5. Business: Coronavirus has made airports happier places The expiration of Pandemic Unemployment Assistance looms.
  6. Education: Where bringing students back to school is most risky.
Mike Allen, author of AM
6 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Biden pushes unity message in new TV wave

A fresh Joe Biden ad, "New Start," signals an effort by his campaign to make unity a central theme, underscoring a new passage in his stump speech that says he won't be a president just for Democrats but for all Americans.

What he's saying: The ad — which began Friday night, and is a follow-up to "Fresh Start" — draws from a Biden speech earlier in the week in Manitowoc, Wisconsin:

Trump prepares to announce Amy Coney Barrett as Supreme Court replacement

Judge Amy Coney Barrett. Photo: Matt Cashore/Notre Dame University via Reuters

President Trump is preparing to nominate federal appeals court Judge Amy Coney Barrett of Indiana, a favorite of both the social conservative base and Republican elected officials, to succeed Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Republican sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: Barrett would push the already conservative court further and harder to the right, for decades to come, on the most important issues in American politics — from abortion to the limits of presidential power. If confirmed, she would give conservatives a 6-3 majority on the high court.

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