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November jobs report could set the tone for the economy in 2020

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Expand chart
Data: BLS, ADP; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Most economists polled are on record predicting the U.S. added 150,000 to 180,000 jobs in November, but following Wednesday's ADP private payrolls report, which came in strongly below estimates, some are bracing for a weak number.

The big picture: Cailin Birch, global economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit, expects job creation softened significantly last month and that the economy is slowing — though she sees a "minor risk" of a looming recession.

  • "The prospects for the US economy in 2020 are fairly mediocre; we do not expect business investment to improve until there is greater clarity on the future of US trade policy and the next steps in the US-China trade war, which is unlikely until 2021," she says in an email.
  • "That said, consumer demand shows no sign of flagging, and this should help to shore up overall growth and job creation, preventing a sharper slowdown in 2020."

Yes, but: Some economists expect the jobs report to outpace expectations because of the resolution of the UAW strike at GM plants across the country, putting job gains above 200,000 and giving a boost to lagging manufacturing jobs.

Go deeper: The U.S. services sector is holding on

Go deeper

Alayna Treene, author of Sneak Peek
51 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Kellyanne Conway's parting power pointers

Kellyanne Conway addresses the 2020 Republican National Convention. Photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images

Kellyanne Conway has seen power exercised as a pollster, campaign manager and senior counselor to President Trump. Now that his term in office has concluded, she shared her thoughts with Axios.

Why it matters: If there's a currency in this town, it's power, so we've asked several former Washington power brokers to share their best advice as a new administration and new Congress settle in.

Go deeper (1 min. read)Arrow
Alayna Treene, author of Sneak Peek
1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

GOP holdouts press on with plans to crush Cheney

Screenshot of emails to a member of Congress from individuals who signed an Americans for Limited Government petition against Rep. Liz Cheney. Photo obtained by Axios

Pro-Trump holdouts in the House are forging ahead with an uphill campaign to oust Rep. Liz Cheney as head of the chamber's Republican caucus even though Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy told them to back down.

Why it matters: What happens next will be a test of McCarthy's party control and the sincerity of his opposition to the movement. Cheney (R-Wyo.) is seen as a potential leadership rival to the California Republican.

Go deeper (1 min. read)Arrow
Lachlan Markay
1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

Democrats aim to punish House GOP for Capitol riot

Speaker Nancy Pelosi passes through a newly installed metal detector at the House floor entrance Thursday. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

House Democrats plan to take advantage of corporate efforts to cut funding for Republicans who opposed certifying the 2020 election results, with a plan to target vulnerable members in the pivotal 2022 midterms for their role in the Jan. 6 violence.

Why it matters: It's unclear whether the Democrats' strategy will manifest itself in ads or earned media in the targeted races or just be a stunt to raise money for themselves. But the Capitol violence will be central to the party's messaging as it seeks to maintain its narrow majorities in Congress.

Go deeper (1 min. read)Arrow

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