Sign up for our daily briefing
Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.
Catch up on the day's biggest business stories
Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter
Stay on top of the latest market trends
Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.
Sports news worthy of your time
Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.
Tech news worthy of your time
Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.
Get the inside stories
Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver
Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines
Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities
Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay
Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte
Most economists polled are on record predicting the U.S. added 150,000 to 180,000 jobs in November, but following Wednesday's ADP private payrolls report, which came in strongly below estimates, some are bracing for a weak number.
The big picture: Cailin Birch, global economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit, expects job creation softened significantly last month and that the economy is slowing — though she sees a "minor risk" of a looming recession.
- "The prospects for the US economy in 2020 are fairly mediocre; we do not expect business investment to improve until there is greater clarity on the future of US trade policy and the next steps in the US-China trade war, which is unlikely until 2021," she says in an email.
- "That said, consumer demand shows no sign of flagging, and this should help to shore up overall growth and job creation, preventing a sharper slowdown in 2020."
Yes, but: Some economists expect the jobs report to outpace expectations because of the resolution of the UAW strike at GM plants across the country, putting job gains above 200,000 and giving a boost to lagging manufacturing jobs.
Go deeper: The U.S. services sector is holding on