Sign up for our daily briefing
Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.
Stay on top of the latest market trends
Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.
Sports news worthy of your time
Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.
Tech news worthy of your time
Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.
Get the inside stories
Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver
Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines
Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities
Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay
Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Photo: Kyodo News via Getty Images
Part of the reason China was willing to take a harder line against North Korea was to curry favor with the U.S., but Trump has proposed tariffs on Chinese exports anyways, ratcheting up trade tensions.
Why it matters: Beijing is now reassessing its priorities when it comes to North Korea, according to Jenny Town, managing editor of 38 North, and may be less willing to keep up the pressure.
Between the lines
Obviously China has other motivations in sanctioning North Korea, Town says: “they were frustrated with North Korea and they don’t want North Korea to have nuclear weapons.” But this trade war changes the calculus in Chinese-U.S. relations, including on North Korea.
- That's especially true given that Trump himself suggested in a NYT interview he would reconsider trade issues with China given its stance on North Korea:
"China...If they’re helping me with North Korea, I can look at trade a little bit differently, at least for a period of time. And that’s what I’ve been doing."— Trump in December, 2017
China's calculus
Robert Manning, a former senior strategist with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence under Barack Obama, says China's "concern for stability" informs the reluctance to pressure North Korea. They're worried "if they squeeze too hard," they could help precipitate a "collapse," he says.
- That is threatening to the Chinese for two reasons, per Manning. One, "the Chinese understand that missiles can be pointed in all directions," including at them, and they also share a border which, in the case of collapse, could mean a humanitarian crisis in Chinese territory.
What's next?
- “China will continue to use the North Korea issue as a bargaining chip with U.S., to the extent it can, and that includes the trade front," Yun Sun, the director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, told Axios.
- We “will see a softening of the sanctions that China has against North Korea,” Town says. That’s because although China has an interest in cutting off the North’s ability to fund its nuclear program, “when you cut off North Korean business from China it also affects the Chinese economy.” Bolstering trade channels with North Korea could also “ensure stability on the Korean peninsula.”
- Sun says that while China can’t ease UN sanctions on North Korea without violating UN resolutions, "what is tricky is whether China will loosen its implementation of the sanctions” by skirting them as in the past. China could also “raise the issue of easing sanctions, although U.S. will be fully capable of saying no,” Sun said.