Axios What's Next

August 13, 2024
Violent crime in cities dropped significantly in the first half of the year, Russell Contreras reports.
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Today's newsletter is 857 words ... a 3-minute read.
1 big thing: Violent crime drops across U.S.
New preliminary data from major U.S. cities shows a sharp drop in violent crime in the first half of the year, as the COVID-era crime wave recedes.
Driving the news: An Axios analysis of data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association found a 6% decline in violent crime among nearly 70 cities during the first six months of 2024, compared to the same period last year.
Zoom in: 54 of the 69 major cities in the report saw drops in violent crime — defined as homicide, rape, robbery and aggravated assault — in the first half of 2024.
- Columbus, Ohio, experienced the largest percentage decline in violent crime in the nation, with a massive 41% drop so far in 2024.
- Omaha, Nebraska, was second, with a 30% decrease.
- Miami and Washington, D.C., have each seen 29% declines in violent crime.
The intrigue: The number of homicides fell by more than 17% during the first half of 2024 compared to the last period last year.
- Boston experienced a dramatic 78% drop in homicides.
Caveat: The report did not include New York City — the nation's largest metropolis — since it did not submit violent crime numbers to the organization for the first half of 2024.
- Data from New York City, which is released separately online, isn't directly comparable to the numbers from this report.
- And as with other crime data, this analysis only captures crimes that are reported to police and included in departments' statistics.
What they're saying: President Biden immediately seized on the numbers as evidence that "Americans are safer today than when Vice President Harris and I took office," as he said in a statement.
- "I will continue to urge Congress to fund 100,000 additional police officers and crime prevention and community violence intervention programs, and make common sense gun safety reforms such as a ban on assault weapons," Biden continued.
The other side: Former President and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has repeatedly made misleading claims that Harris has helped free people the Trump campaign described as dangerous criminals, according to The Washington Post.
- "Harris is a pro-criminal extremist," Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told the Post.
- Trump also has falsely claimed that many migrants who have or are trying to cross America's southern border are coming from mental institutions and will commit violent crimes in large numbers.
Reality check: An Axios review of crime data along the U.S.-Mexico border found that those cities have some of the nation's lowest violent crime rates.
The bottom line: Facts and data about crime are important, but history shows political campaigns can ignore the facts to exploit people's fears about crime to change the narrative.
2. Dating apps' existential crisis
As society's feelings toward dating apps have shifted from taboo to fun to frustrating, the underlying businesses are being forced to rethink their products.
The big picture: Dating apps were initially novel, each with a unique twist — Tinder was about swiping for a hookup, Hinge connected mutual friends via Facebook, and Bumble had women make the first move.
- Over time, those lines have blurred, as the apps found themselves gravitating toward the same growth and monetization strategies.
- "There's really not a lot of growth to have in the mature markets," Stifel analyst Mark Kelley tells Axios. "In terms of the apps, they're all kind of converging to be the same thing."
Between the lines: People are tired of swiping and are seeking out in-person events.
- Jordana Abraham, co-founder of Betches Media and co-host of dating podcast "U Up?," says the "dream of most daters is to feel like they're meeting someone organically."
- "Sometimes they're great, but if you consume it all the time, you start to feel a little sick," Abraham says, comparing dating apps to fast food.
- "They have to offer a salad," she adds. "Something that makes people feel less burnt out, less commodified, less gamified."
The catch: No one knows what exactly that "salad" could be.
- The next steps by Tinder and Bumble are underwhelming: Bumble is adding government ID verification, while Tinder is helping users choose profile photos with an AI tool.
- Bumble is also exploring monetization through advertising — which Abraham calls "a quick fix to a larger problem."
The bottom line: As Abraham says: "I don't think they're solving the collective societal feeling of, 'We want something that feels more real.'"
3. Less traffic, thanks to AI
Boston officials are working with Project Green Light, Google's AI traffic analysis initiative, to reduce road delays and vehicle emissions.
How it works: The team uses AI and Google Maps' driving trends to track traffic patterns at intersections around the city, looking for signs of movement, idling, and starting and stopping.
The latest: Google has started making recommendations after analyzing the data for five months.
- The city implemented its suggestions at intersections in Fenway, Mission Hill and Jamaica Plain this summer.
Between the lines: Boston Mayor Michelle Wu's administration remains adamant about creating a city that runs on trains, buses, bicycles and pedestrians.
- But officials understand that some people need to drive, Santiago Garces, Boston's chief innovation officer, tells Axios — including delivery vans, ambulances, buses and more.
Big thanks to What's Next copy editor Amy Stern.
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