A few things that stand out:
- The "continuous coverage" provision — which would penalize anyone who didn't keep themselves insured — would increase coverage by 1 million people in 2018, but then it would decrease by 2 million.
- Note to GOP: "The people deterred from purchasing coverage would tend to be healthier than those who would not be deterred and would be willing to pay the surcharge."
- The actuarial value of the health plans would drop — so while average premiums could be lower over time, it would be because "people would buy skimpier coverage," per Cynthia Cox of the Kaiser Family Foundation.
And look at what happens to the net premiums people would pay, after tax credits, based on their age (h/t Yvette Fontenot, former Senate Democratic aide and member of the Axios board of experts):
Single person earning $26,500 a year (175 percent of the federal poverty line):
Age 21: $1,700 (Obamacare); $1,450 (GOP bill)
Age 40: $1,700 (Obamacare); $2,400 (GOP bill)
Age 64: $1,700 (Obamacare); $14,600 (GOP bill)