The House Budget Committee markup of Obamacare replacement on Thursday was supposed to be a pretty cut-and-dried affair, but McClatchy points out that it might not go as smoothly as everyone thought. That's because the committee includes three members of the Freedom Caucus, including Rep. Mark Sanford, who's sponsoring a more conservative replacement bill, and Rep. Dave Brat, who's been a vocal critic of the GOP leadership version. Other Republicans on the committee have been noncommittal.
Why it matters: If Republicans lose four votes, the bill won't get out of committee, since no Democrats will vote for it.
Reality check: A close vote is a real possibility, especially after the CBO estimates — but a defeat seems farfetched, given all of the pressure we described above for Republicans to live up to their repeal promises. A Budget Committee aide's prediction: "It'll pass."