Welcome back! Are you ready for election week?

Today is looking like a washout, with as much as 3/4 of an inch of rain falling, per NWS. High of 63.

Happy belated birthday to Audrey Sanislo, whose big day we missed on Friday!

Today’s newsletter is 1,112 words — a 4-minute read.

More than 728,000 Minnesotans had already cast ballots as of Friday, shattering the state record for early voting in a non-presidential election.

Why it matters: The conventional wisdom is that strong early turnout is a good sign for Democrats — but elections experts caution that it doesn't necessarily predict which party will benefit.

By the numbers: The greatest volume of early ballots is pouring in from DFL strongholds and Democratic-trending suburbs.

• Minneapolis blew past its previous midterm early voting record last Wednesday.
• As of Friday, Twin Cities metro-area counties had exceeded their 2022 absentee totals by 65,000 votes — a 16% increase.
• The DFL-leaning counties that contain Rochester and Duluth have also already topped their 2022 absentee totals.

What they're saying: These figures "could be good news for the Democrats," Hamline University political science professor David Schultz tells Axios.

• The turnout in the metro could reflect national polls showing greater enthusiasm among Democratic-leaning voters.

Yes, but: Schultz also pumps the brakes, noting Democrats in recent elections have been more likely to vote early, but Republicans' day-of voting may cancel out any partisan advantage.

Reality check: Strong early turnout this year doesn't necessarily mean overall turnout will be higher.

• More voters may simply be shifting away from voting on Election Day, Charles Stewart, who directs MIT's Election Data and Science Lab, tells Axios' Josephine Walker.

The intrigue: The seven Minnesota counties where absentee vote numbers have grown at the fastest rate since 2022 are Swift, Clearwater, Chisago, Renville, Rice, Wadena and Winona.

• All of those are rural or exurban counties won by President Trump.

This could be a sign more Minnesota Republicans are embracing early voting, despite Trump's longstanding skepticism, Schultz says.

• It also might signal that conservatives are motivated, too. "Many people are thinking this is the first shot Republicans have had in 20 years to win statewide office," Schultz notes, citing tight polls.

What we're watching: Whether this midterm's turnout surpasses the 2018 "blue wave" — which saw the highest participation rate since 1914, according to Pew Research.

• At a minimum, Schultz says, all signs point to turnout that's "higher than recent history."

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Mayor Jacob Frey took a desperate tone with developers last week, telling a room full of them to come to him and ask for subsidies.

Why it matters: It's not the first time Frey has signaled the city wants to play ball on subsidies, but these comments bordered on begging as the mayor struggles with a spiraling downtown tax base.

Context: Frey made the comments at the RE Journal's annual Downtown Minneapolis Summit. He was emphasizing that he wants to use more tax-increment financing to help fund conversions of office buildings to apartments.

What they're saying: "If you don't ask and therefore you don't get the thing approved and therefore you didn't get the investment, don't come crying to me because you didn't ask to begin with," Frey told hundreds of real estate professionals. "We want to help you."

State of play: While the city has seen some success in office-to-residential conversions, a recent Newmark report put the city near the bottom in volume compared to nine other Midwest cities since 2020.

Frey was backed up by Council Member Michael Rainville, who represents half of downtown.

• "Don't give up on downtown," Rainville told the crowd. "We're here to help you with your investment — to make you rich, to help you prosper."

Reality check: Even with state and federal historic tax credits and tax-increment financing, developers have struggled to get investors and loans for conversions because construction is so expensive and rents aren't high enough.

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🏈 The Vikings lost their first game of the season to the Detroit Lions Sunday, falling to 6-1. (Star Tribune)

• With the trade deadline eight days away, the loss could have the front office searching for help for an offense that again struggled to score points.

🚨 St. Paul Police evacuated Union Depot on Saturday after a fight broke out during a market event. (Pioneer Press)

• They suspected shots were fired, though they never found evidence of gunfire.

🏭 The Hermantown City Council approved a Google data center on Friday night following protests that shut down meetings two nights earlier in the week. (MPR News)

🧑‍🏫 English-language teachers facing layoffs in St. Paul were spared by a school board plan to offer early retirements to other EL educators. (Sahan Journal)

The college basketball season begins tonight, and it doesn't look promising for Minnesota's teams.

Gophers men: A Columbus Dispatch preseason media poll has Minnesota finishing 13th in the 18-team Big Ten conference.

• Their best player, Cade Tyson, is still awaiting a court decision on a class-action lawsuit that will determine if he's eligible to play. If he can play, ESPN said the Gophers are a "a dangerous bubble team."

Gophers women: Coming off last year's Sweet 16 appearance, Minnesota looked like it would contend for a Big Ten title this season. Preseason polls put the Gophers among the nation's top 20 teams.

• Yes, but: That was before they lost star guard Tori McKinney to a season-ending knee injury.

See what they're saying about St. Thomas

Kyle here. It's not unheard of to pay $12 for a beer — so when I heard St. Paul's A-Side Public House will also toss in a burger and fries for that price, I was there.

Dig in: Axios reader Brittany flagged me to A-Side's Burger Monday deal, which comes with any craft beer on the menu — normally an $8 value.

• This was no cheap lager; I drank a hazy IPA.

What to expect: A perfectly decent, single-patty burger — complete with a buttered bun and a tangy sauce — and a generous portion of crispy, fluffy fries.

• Not bad for, effectively, four extra bucks (before tax and tip).

Plus: A-Side also offers a "kids eat free" deal on Sunday nights, Brittany notes.

📣 Know a good meal deal/steal we should feature? Hit reply to let us know.

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🍹 Nick appreciates his neighbor, who handed out Jell-O shots to parents on Saturday night.

🎉 Audrey celebrated her birthday at Hyacinth.

🚛 Kyle was most impressed by a trick-or-treater's homemade and functional garbage truck costume, designed to pick up candy instead of trash.

🎂 Torey baked this cake!

This newsletter was edited by Larry Graham.