Axios AM Thought Bubble

September 03, 2021
☕️ Good morning. Axios' Felix Salmon here with what you need to know about the August jobs report ahead of Labor Day weekend.
- Smart Brevity™ count: 379 words ... 1½ minutes.
1 big thing: Delta strikes


The U.S. economy was growing at a gangbusters rate — and then the Delta variant came along, slowing things down substantially.
- That's the message from the hugely disappointing jobs report that came out this morning.
Why it matters: The pandemic is far from over, and it's still hobbling the American economic recovery.
The big picture: Each successive wave of COVID-19 does less harm to the economy than the one before.
- As Harvard's Jason Furman points out, the first wave of the pandemic had a lower death toll than we're seeing right now, but caused some 22 million job losses.
- This time around, we're still adding jobs, albeit at a slower rate than a month or two ago.
By the numbers: June saw 962,000 new jobs added, and July did even better with 1.05 million. In August, however, the pace of change slowed dramatically, with a gain of just 235,000 jobs — and none at all in the leisure and hospitality industries.
- The other side: Wage growth was very strong, with earnings rising 0.6% in a single month, or 4.3% on a year-over-year basis. The unemployment rate also continued to decline, hitting a new pandemic-era low of 5.2%.
Between the lines: The Federal Reserve was watching this report closely to see whether the economy would prove resilient enough that it could take its foot off the accelerator, in a process known as tapering. The August jobs number now makes any tapering this year much less likely.
What they're saying: "The most telling number" in the report is the number of people who don't have a job but want one, tweets Michigan economist Betsey Stevenson. That declined sharply, from 6.5 million in July to just 5.7 million in August.
- In other words: While Delta rages, a lot of Americans have no desire to go out to work.
The bottom line: The recovery won't get back on track until the Delta surge subsides.
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