10 months ago, the Tokyo Olympics were postponed. Now, less than six months ahead of their new start date, the dreaded word is being murmured: "canceled."

Driving the news: The Japanese government has privately concluded that the Games will have to be called off, The Times reports (subscription), citing an unnamed senior government source.

• "No one wants to be the first to say so but the consensus is that it's too difficult," the source said. "Personally, I don't think it's going to happen."
• The source said the focus is now on securing the Olympics for the city in the next available year, 2032. Paris hosts in 2024, while L.A. hosts in 2028.

The other side: The International Olympic Committee and the Japanese government insist that the Games are still on, calling the report "categorically untrue."

• "We have at this moment, no reason whatsoever to believe that the Olympic Games in Tokyo will not open on the 23rd of July," IOC president Thomas Bach said Thursday, adding that there is "no Plan B."
• Yoshihide Suga, who became prime minister just four months ago, is framing the Games as "proof that humanity has defeated the coronavirus."

The backdrop: Japan has reported fewer than 5,000 deaths due to COVID-19. But cases are surging in Tokyo, and the country's lack of testing (~55,000 PCR tests daily) limits its true understanding of the spread.

• Meanwhile, public opinion has turned against the Games, with 80% of Japanese citizens saying they should be postponed again or canceled.
• And with Suga's popularity plummeting amid the third wave, he's inclined to listen to the people — especially with an election coming up later this year.

By the numbers: Canceling the Olympics would be a financial disaster for Japan, which has spent over $25 billion on preparations, most of which was public money.

• Yes, but: Implementing countermeasures against COVID-19 once athletes arrive adds even more costs. And with the possibility of no spectators, local organizers would earn $0 in ticket sales.

The bottom line: Whether or not a cancellation is on the horizon, grave uncertainty surrounds the Tokyo Games. And between the Olympics and Paralympics (set to open Aug. 24), the fate of 15,000 athletes hangs in the balance.

• In case the situation improves dramatically, a final decision likely won't be made until the latest possible date, which is probably March 25.
• That's when the torch relay is scheduled to begin in northern Japan and crisscross the country for four months. It's hard to imagine that going ahead with the Olympics being canceled.

P.S. ... While the focus is deservedly on Tokyo, let's not forget: The 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing are set to begin in just over a year (Feb. 4, 2022).

The NFC Championship will be the first playoff matchup between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady as the Packers host the Bucs Sunday at Lambeau, Axios' Jeff Tracy writes.

• Kickoff: 3:05pm ET (Fox)
• Lines: GB -3 | O/U 51.5
• Attendance: ~9,000

Legends collide: The two future first-ballot Hall of Famers have lived 80 years between them, and though one's postseason track record is unassailable, the other has room for improvement.

• Brady is making his record-extending 44th playoff start (32-11). This is also his 14th conference championship (9-4), which is twice as many as second place (Joe Montana).
• Rodgers is 12-8 in the playoffs, but he's been mediocre at best in four conference championships, going 1-3 with just six touchdowns against seven interceptions.
• Of note: This will be Rodgers' first conference championship at Lambeau.

Team composition: 2020 was the highest-scoring season in NFL history, and these two teams were at the front of the pack.

• The Packers led the league in points behind a top-10 passing and rushing attack. Their defense was middling (No. 13), but fortunately — as it pertains to this matchup — they stop the pass (No. 7) better than the run (No. 13).
• The Bucs scored just 17 fewer points than Green Bay this season, while performing significantly better in the air (No. 2) than the ground (No. 28). They have a top-10 defense that allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL.

Fun fact: Brady-Brees was the most-watched TV broadcast since last year's Super Bowl. Think Brady-Rodgers might draw a few eyeballs?

Pregame reading:

• Requiem for the 'indestructible' Packers of the 1960s (NYT)
• The Bucs dare opposing offenses to pass, so they do (FiveThirtyEight)

The AFC Championship is Sunday's explosive nightcap, with the Chiefs hosting the Bills at Arrowhead, Jeff writes.

• Kickoff: 6:40pm ET (CBS)
• Lines: KC -3 | O/U 54
• Attendance: ~16,000

Young studs: Patrick Mahomes (25) and Josh Allen (24) are slightly younger than their NFC counterparts. They're necessarily less accomplished, but no less talented — particularly when it comes to arm strength.

• Mahomes is 5-1 in his young playoff career with 18 total touchdowns against just two interceptions, and his only loss was the January 2019 thriller against Brady's Pats.
• Allen is playing in just his fourth postseason game, but has yet to throw an interception. And watch out when he scrambles: he's one of just nine players, and the only QB, with 25 rushing TD since 2018.
• Of note: Mahomes remains in concussion protocol, so even though he's been practicing, his status for Sunday is uncertain.

Team composition: Same as in the NFC, these two teams are indicative of 2020's scoring boom, featuring offenses lethal enough to withstand their good-not-great defenses.

• The Chiefs scored the sixth-most points and had the NFL's best passing offense (shocker!), but the last time they won by more than six points was all the way back in Week 8.
• The Bills scored more points than every team outside of Green Bay, fueled by Allen's rapid improvement and the arrival of Stefon Diggs, who developed an immediate rapport with his young QB.

Fun fact: The Chiefs are the second NFL team to host three straight conference championships, joining the 2002–04 Eagles. Think Andy Reid's a good coach?

Pregame reading:

• How the Bills were built (SI)
• Can the Chiefs keep getting this lucky? (FiveThirtyEight)

Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier headline Saturday's UFC 257 in Abu Dhabi — a rematch more than six years in the making, Jeff writes.

• Stream: 10pm ET, ESPN+ ($69.99)
• Odds: McGregor -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Poirier + 240 (bet $100 to win $240)

Tale of the tape: McGregor, the brash Irishman, and Poirier, the scrapper from Louisiana, are both 32 years old and stand five-feet-nine-inches.

• McGregor is 22-4, with each loss coming by submission.
• Poirier is 26-6, with his losses evenly distributed among knockouts, submissions and decisions.
• Last two fights: Both are coming off wins, but each fighter's prior bout was a loss by submission to Khabib Nurmagomedov.

The backdrop: Before their lone fight in 2014, McGregor said, "It's gonna be a first round KO. Mark my words." Sure enough, it was. Evidence below.

Giphy

Fighting styles:

• McGregor is an elite striker, pummeling his opponents early with devastating power punches. As a result, 20 of his 22 wins have come in the first two rounds.
• Poirier likes a good slugfest and is unafraid to take punches if it sets him up to counter. In his most recent win, he landed three fewer significant punches than he took.

Go deeper: How Poirier has changed since losing to McGregor (ESPN)

Expansion club Austin FC selected Virginia Tech midfielder Daniel Pereira with the No. 1 overall pick in Thursday's MLS SuperDraft.

• Of note: Pereira is the first Venezuelan native and first Virginia Tech player ever selected first overall.
• 🎥 Watch: Highlight reel (YouTube)

ACC domination: Six of the first seven picks — and 12 of the first 27 — were from ACC schools, the most first-round picks ever produced by one conference.

• Pick 1: Pereira, Virginia Tech → Austin FC
• Pick 2: Calvin Harris, Wake Forest → FC Cincinnati
• Pick 3: Philip Mayaka, Clemson → Colorado Rapids
• Pick 4: Kimarni Smith, Clemson → D.C. United
• Pick 5: Michael DeShields, Wake Forest → D.C. United
• Pick 7: Bret Halsey, Virginia → Real Salt Lake
• Pick 13: Luther Archimede, Syracuse → New York Red Bulls
• Pick 17: Justin McMaster, Wake Forest → Minnesota United FC
• Pick 20: Irakoze Donasiyano, Virginia → Nashville SC
• Pick 21: Aedan Stanley, Duke → Austin FC
• Pick 24: Edward Kizza, Pitt → New England Revolution
• Pick 27: Justin Malou, Clemson → Columbus Crew

The big picture: While the surge in Homegrown Player signings has been a major storyline for MLS, the college ranks are still an important part of bringing top talent — and future USMNT players — into MLS first teams.

• Seven players currently with the USMNT for January camp were SuperDraft picks, as well as seven more players that were called up to the U-23 camp.

What's next: With the college season having shifted to the spring for most conferences, some draftees will return to college and play out the spring season before joining their MLS club in May.

Go deeper:

• Look: Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3
• Read: Top 10 all-time best SuperDraft picks (MLS)

Joe Biden was an undistinguished student, but a standout athlete, at Archmere Academy in Claymont, Delaware.

• "He was a skinny kid, but he was one of the best pass receivers I had in 16 years as a coach," said E. John Walsh, his football coach at Archmere.
• "He had good speed, and he was kind of an all-around athlete," teammate Michael Fay told ESPN. Biden also played baseball.

Context: At the time, Biden was struggling with a stutter that had been a source of embarrassment since childhood. But sports were always there to lift him up.

• "Sports was as natural to me as speaking was unnatural, Biden wrote in his 2007 memoir, "Promises to Keep."
• "As much as I lacked confidence in my ability to communicate verbally, I always had confidence in my athletic ability."
• "[E]ven when I stuttered, I was always the kid who said, 'Give me the ball.' ... Sports turned out to be my ticket to acceptance — and more."

Soccer dad: Like most Americans his age (78), Biden wasn't familiar with soccer growing up. But his sons, Beau and Hunter, came of age during the suburban youth soccer boom in the 1970s — and his grandchildren all played.

"I don't even think the high school that I went to had a soccer team. Beau played and was captain … I never played soccer, but I watched all Beau's games."

Go deeper: Biden and the beautiful game (SI)

🏈 Philly's new boss: The Eagles are hiring Colts OC Nick Sirianni as their next head coach. He's the team's seventh straight head coach with no previous NFL head coaching experience (Pederson, Kelly, Reid, Rhodes, Kotite, Ryan).

🏀 16-5: LeBron James (season-high 34 points) led the Lakers past the Bucks and improved to 16-5 (.762) against Giannis Antetokounmpo. The only MVP with a higher win percentage vs. another MVP (minimum 20 games) is Kareem Abdul-Jabbar vs. Hakeem Olajuwon (.783).

🏈 King makes history: Jennifer King, who spent this past season as a full-time intern with the Washington Football Team, has been promoted, making her the first Black woman to be a full-time NFL coach. The breakthroughs continue.

⚽️ Streak snapped: Liverpool lost to Burnley, 1-0, on Thursday. It's the Reds' first home loss in 68 Premier League matches — a stretch that began in April 2017.

🏀 Huskies top Vols: No. 3 UConn beat No. 25 Tennessee, 67-61, in the latest chapter of their storied women's college hoops rivalry. Freshman Paige Bueckers (No. 1 overall recruit) hit a dagger three to seal it.

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15 years ago today, Kobe Bryant scored 81 points — the second-highest total in NBA history — in the Lakers' 122-104 victory over the Raptors.

"There's a lot of players who come up now who don't think 80 points is possible. ... I never, ever thought that way. ... I think that game is a testament to what happens when you put no ceiling to what you're capable of doing."

By the numbers: Bryant's 81 points (28-46 FG; 7-13 3PT; 18-20 FT) came in just under 42 minutes. He added six rebounds, three steals, two assists and one block.

The backdrop: This was the first of Bryant's consecutive scoring titles, and his 35.4 ppg still ranks as the ninth-highest ever. In the 10 games up to and including 81, he averaged an insane 45.5 points a night.

Kobe died a year ago next week (Jan. 26). Miss you, Mamba.

Go deeper:

• Look: Box score
• Read: Oral history
• Watch: Highlights

Five schools have produced a U.S. president and a Super Bowl-winning QB:

1. Delaware: Biden/Flacco
2. Miami (OH): Harrison/Big Ben
3. Michigan: Ford/Brady
4. Stanford: Hoover/Elway/Plunkett
5. Navy: Carter/Staubach

Question: What team in this year's postseason field would have had to win the Super Bowl to make it six schools?

• Hint: Power 5.

Answer at the bottom.

1. 🏀 Ron Harper Jr.!!!
2. 🏒 Tukka pad save
3. 🏀 Steph to Dray
4. 🏀 Arizona wins it
5. ⛳️ Walk-off eagle

Watch all 5.