Axios Sports

December 22, 2020
π Good morning! Welcome to our 2020-21 NBA season preview.
Opening night: The action begins tonight with an epic doubleheader on TNT.
- Warriors vs. Nets, 7pm ET
- Lakers vs. Clippers, 10pm
Today's word count: 1,568 words (6 minutes).
1 big thing: π· Out of the bubble, into the world
Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios
The Disney World bubble kept the NBA safe from COVID-19 this summer. Now comes an even greater challenge: staging a 72-game season in the real world.
Why it matters: In the bubble, the NBA made and enforced the rules, set up a complex testing program and operated three arenas. In the real world, teams will be responsible for doing everything themselves.
- While the NBA can lean on its bubble experience to a certain degree, it has never traveled during the pandemic like MLB and the NFL have.
- The best the league can do is prepare for all contingencies, as there will almost certainly be bumps in the road along the way.
What they're saying: "I think we are prepared for isolated cases. In fact, based on what we've seen in the preseason [and] watching other leagues operating outside a bubble, unfortunately, it seems somewhat inevitable," NBA commissioner Adam Silver said Monday.
Details:
- 10-day quarantine: If a player tests positive, he must remain in isolation for at least 10 days or pass COVID-19 tests on two consecutive days before returning.
- Travel rules: Teams can use only pre-approved restaurants and private dining spaces; players are banned from visiting bars, nightclubs and public gyms.
- Hotel rules: Players are limited to two guests in their rooms and both must be family members or close friends.
- Expanded rosters: In anticipation of positive tests, the NBA has expanded active game rosters from 13 to 15 players. Plus, two-way players can be active for up to 50 games.
Key dates:
- Dec. 22-March 4: First half of regular season (best games)
- March 5-10: All-Star break
- March 11-May 16: Second half of regular season (schedule TBD)
- May 18-21: Play-in tournament
- May 22-July 22: Playoffs
Looking ahead: NIAID director Anthony Fauci has predicted that most Americans will be able to get the COVID-19 vaccine by late spring or early summer, and that "it's possible" we could see full stadiums again in 2021.
- Mavericks owner Mark Cuban told SiriusXM NBA Radio that he thinks "things are going to get really fun" in NBA arenas in the season's second half.
- "We won't be able to eliminate cases and outbreaks, but if we can minimize them, then hopefully it can be as close to a normal season as possible," Cuban told NYT.
Go deeper: Season preview (NBA)
2. π΅ Bucks owner: "I don't think you're breaking even"
Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios
The NBA is the first major U.S. sports league to play a second season amid the pandemic, and there are questions about how long the economics can work if fans remain home on the couch.
What they're saying: "I don't think you're breaking even [this season]," Bucks co-owner Marc Lasry told Axios' Dan Primack on the "Axios Re:Cap" podcast yesterday. "The question is how much do you lose."
- "Fans are 30%β40% of your revenue. You can't make that up," said Lasry.
- If fans return this season, "your best-case scenario is you lose 10%β20%," he said. If fans don't return, "your worst-case scenario is you lose more than that."
The big picture: While speaking with reporters on Monday, commissioner Silver acknowledged the possibility of expansion, which would be the quickest way for owners to make up revenue shortfalls.
- "I'd say [the pandemic] has caused us to maybe dust off some of the analyses on the economic and competitive impacts of expansion," he said.
- "We've been putting a little bit more time into it than we were pre-pandemic. But certainly not to the point that expansion is on the front burner."
π§ Listen: Marc Lasry interview (Axios)
3. π A (mostly) fanless start
Miami's American Airlines Arena will begin the season without fans. Photo: Michael Reaves/Getty Images
24 of the NBA's 30 teams will begin the season without fans, while the following six teams will allow reduced crowds:
- Cavaliers: 300 fans (1.5% capacity)
- Jazz: 1,500 (8.2%)
- Magic: 4,000 (21.2%)
- Pelicans: 750 (4%)
- Raptors (in Tampa): 3,800 (18.5%)
- Rockets: 4,500 (25%)
Looking ahead: The Spurs plan to allow a limited number of fans starting on Jan. 1, and the Hawks plan to allow 1,700 fans (10%) starting on Jan. 18.
Go deeper:
- Look: Attendance policies by team (NBA)
- Read: Toronto to Tampa, in 6 weeks (The Athletic)
4. π Teams, ranked by tiers
Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios
Los Angeles will be the center of the NBA universe for a second straight season, with an empty Staples Center hosting two of the league's three best teams.
- Favorite: Lakers
- On their heels: Bucks, Clippers, Nuggets

New York City basketball is back in the spotlight. With Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving leading the way in Brooklyn, the Nets are legit title contenders.
- Real contenders: Nets, Heat, Celtics, Mavericks
- Fake contenders: 76ers, Jazz, Trail Blazers, Raptors

Stephen Curry is back, and so are the (new-look) Warriors. Klay Thompson's season-ending injury dashed any title hopes, but Golden State should win ~40 games a year after finishing an NBA-worst 15-50.
- Playoffs or bust: Suns, Warriors, Pacers, Rockets, Pelicans
- On the bubble: Hawks, Wizards, Grizzlies, Spurs, Magic

LaMelo Ball was famous before he could legally drive. Now, he enters the NBA with 6.1 million Instagram followers and a ton of hype. Will he be the franchise cornerstone the Hornets so desperately need?
- Lottery-bound: Bulls, Timberwolves, Kings, Hornets, Thunder
- The doldrums: Knicks, Pistons, Cavaliers
Go deeper: Team-by-team projections (FiveThirtyEight)
5. βοΈ Top 25 players: LeBron and everyone else
Photo: Christian Petersen/Getty Images
"At the dawn of his 18th season, the sheer longevity of LeBron James' career is emerging as one of his most impressive feats," ESPN's Kirk Goldsberry writes (subscription).
By the numbers: While icons like Michael Jordan and Larry Bird retired before they reached 1,300 games (including playoffs), James has soared well past that mark β and he's still dominating.
- Games played: 1,525
- Total minutes: 59,364
- Total points: 41,732
"Hey Siri, what's an outlier?"

My top 25 players:
- 1β5: 1. James (Lakers), 2. Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks), 3. Anthony Davis (Lakers), 4. Kawhi Leonard (Clippers), 5. Luka DonΔiΔ (Mavericks)
- 6β10: 6. Kevin Durant (Nets), 7. Stephen Curry (Warriors), 8. James Harden (Rockets), 9. Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers), 10. Nikola JokiΔ (Nuggets)
- 11β15: 11. Jayson Tatum (Celtics), 12. Jimmy Butler (Heat), 13. Joel Embiid (76ers), 14. Bam Adebayo (Heat), 15. Bradley Beal (Wizards)
- 16β20: 16. Devin Booker (Suns), 17. Paul George (Clippers), 18. Chris Paul (Suns), 19. Ben Simmons (76ers), 20. Karl-Anthony Towns (Timberwolves)
- 21β25: 21. Kyrie Irving (Nets), 22. Donovan Mitchell (Jazz), 23. Jamal Murray (Nuggets), 24. Rudy Gobert (Jazz), 25. Zion Williamson (Pelicans)
Go deeper: Fantasy player rankings (ESPN)
Bonus: π Awards predictions

- MVP: Luka DonΔiΔ (Mavericks)
- ROY: Obi Toppin (Knicks)
- DPOY: Anthony Davis (Lakers)
- Sixth man: Spencer Dinwiddie (Nets)
- MIP: Christian Wood (Rockets)
- COY: Monty Williams (Suns)
6. π Masks are in, suits are out
Kings coach Luke Walton during a preseason game. Photo: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
For NBA coaches, masks will be required on the sidelines this season. Jackets will not.
Details: The new league mandate requires "business attire ... dress shirts, pants, socks and shoes," though an exception is made for NBA-licensed polo shirts as long as the whole coaching staff wears the same one.
The big picture: Dress codes across industries have been relaxing over the last decade, and the pandemic has exponentially sped up the process.
- Two years ago, NBA coaches were heavily in favor of keeping the suited look. But opinions shifted this summer.
- It started in the bubble, where most coaches wore polos, and continued at home, where they wore sweats like the rest of us.
What they're saying: "After being in quarantine and not even putting on jeans for six months, I'm leaning toward basketball casual," Timberwolves coach Ryan Saunders, son of the fashionable Flip, told ESPN. "My dad would have a fit."
Go deeper: Get ready for the NBA coach style revolution (GQ)
7. π G League intrigue
Jonathan Kuminga. Photo: Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The G League, the NBA's minor league circuit, plans to play a shortened season in a bubble.
- Location: The league is eyeing Atlanta as a temporary home after previously considering Orlando, ESPN reports.
- Teams: The bubble can't accommodate all 29 teams, so the league has asked franchises to volunteer to forgo the season. At least 10 have already done so.
The intrigue: The league-run Ignite team, which launched in April and allows top recruits to earn $500,000 their first year out of high school rather than go to college, features multiple top prospects β including two projected top-5 picks.
- Jalen Green, No. 1 player in the class of 2020
- Jonathan Kuminga, No. 1 player in the class of 2021 before reclassifying
What to watch: The G League has teamed up with sports media company Overtime to create content around the league all season.
- Overtime, which is popular among Gen Z fans, will produce highlights and an episodic docuseries that follows the Ignite team.
- "This is the perfect partnership," said Overtime president Zack Weiner. "We have been sharing the journeys of players, including many on the Ignite team, for years now as they rise the ranks."
Go deeper:
- Read: The rise of the G League (Axios)
- π₯ Watch: Ignite scrimmage highlights (Overtime)
8. π³ No more random weed tests
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
The NBA has suspended random marijuana testing this season, citing the "unusual circumstances of the pandemic."
- Yes, but: Marijuana remains a banned substance under NBA rules, and the league will continue to test for it in cases of "cause."
The backdrop: The NBA enacted a similar policy in Orlando this summer, where it was assumed players were smuggling cannabis into the bubble.
- "We've seen video game systems being carried into the bubble. We know the cards are there. ... But many are going to need their favorite idle-time activity," The Athletic's Marcus Thompson wrote in July (subscription).
- "Even discussing this is taboo, however. As one agent said: 'You're asking about Fight Club. There's no testing for a reason.'"
The big picture: With public support for marijuana legalization at an all-time high (68% of Americans), and more athletes using cannabis to treat pain, this was inevitable and could become the norm for all U.S. pro sports leagues.
- 35 states plus Washington, D.C., have some form of legal cannabis, with 15 now open to adults for recreational purposes.
- Earlier this month, the House of Representatives voted for the first time to decriminalize marijuana at the federal level.
Go deeper:
- π₯ Watch: Cannabis and basketball (B/R)
- Read: Erasing the stigma and healing the league (NBC)
9. π NBA trivia

Only six players in NBA history have scored 60+ points multiple times.
- Question: Who are they?
- Hint: Two are still active.
Answer at the bottom.
10. π Good reads
Oscar Robertson during a 1958 Cincinnati game. Photo: Cincinnati/Collegiate Images via Getty Images
The Big O: The NBA's forgotten trailblazer (Jack McCallum, SI)
"Remembering the Big O solely as a triple-double machine ignores his status as one of pro basketball's earliest activists."
The case of the NBA's most stolen play (Ben Cohen, WSJ)
"How does an idea travel from a small college in Kentucky to Celtics coach Brad Stevens, Warriors coach Steve Kerr and the highest levels of basketball?"
Anthony Davis is coming for the crown (Rob Mahoney, The Ringer)
"After years of flashing his immense potential, Davis may finally be ready to showcase the total package this season."
Talk tomorrow,
Kendall "Welcome back, KD" Baker
Trivia answer: Wilt Chamberlain (32x), Kobe Bryant (6x), Michael Jordan (5x), James Harden (4x), Elgin Baylor (4x), Dame Lillard (3x)








