Polling, spending trends and conversations with leading Democratic and Republican strategists suggest it's now very possible House Republicans win back the majority on Nov. 8 with more than 20 House seats — once the upper range of most analysts' projections.

• In the Senate, Republican officials are now bullish they'll gain at least the one seat necessary to regain the majority.

The big picture: Two weeks out from the midterms, evidence points to a re-emerging red wave that could sweep in GOP control of both chambers.

Why it matters: The national political environment shapes the trajectory of all the battleground races, meaning a big enough wave could touch some of the bluest districts.

• There's also an outside chance it sweeps in flawed Republican Senate nominees in Georgia and Arizona — despite their underwhelming campaigns against battle-tested Democratic incumbents.

How we got here: Inflation, inflation, inflation. Abortion may have peaked too soon as a motivating issue (the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June) to give Democrats a maximum boost in November. The late timing of gas prices' rebound, conversely, puts more wind in the GOP's sails.

• Biden delivered a speech Tuesday pledging to codify Roe as his first act if Democrats elect more senators and keep the House. But there's worry in Democratic circles that abortion-centric messaging is keeping candidates from talking about the economy.
• A new Monmouth poll found 63% of respondents wish Biden would give more attention to the "issues that are important to your family" — including 36% of Democrats.

What we're watching: The latest public polling shows Republicans pulling ahead on the generic ballot. The Monmouth survey showed the GOP with a six-point advantage among registered voters (50%-44%), with more Republicans "extremely motivated" to vote (64%) than Democrats (59%).

• Cook Political Report's House editor David Wasserman said this week many of the 15 Democrats in "lean Democratic" seats are "teetering on the edge." That's atop 30 Democratic-held seats already in "toss-up" or worse territory.
• Wasserman name-checked House Democrats' campaign chief Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) and progressive star Katie Porter (D-Calif.) as two prominent Dems — both in double-digit Biden districts — who are in danger.

What we're hearing: House Dems are triaging resources to defend candidates in solidly blue territory. Last week, the Democrats' House Majority PAC moved funds from an Oregon district Biden carried by nine points to salvage a suburban Portland district Biden won by 13 points.

Between the lines: "We're still winning independent women but not by much," said one Democratic strategist involved in top congressional races. "Six weeks ago, we were winning them by double-digits. Now it's close to 50-50."

Reality check: Far-right Senate candidates are still a drag on the GOP. The Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund announced Friday it was cutting $5.6 million intended to help Republican Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, earmarking it for other Senate battlegrounds.

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Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) is focusing her latest message to voters on benefits they will receive from President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.

• She doesn't call the legislation by its name — but she does focus on savings it will deliver for seniors. It's the first ad Hassan has aired on Biden's signature legislation.

What they're saying: "It wasn't easy: Taking on the big drug companies to break their hold on outrageous prescription prices," Hassan says.

• "Now we've made progress — passing the new law that lets Medicare negotiate for lower medicine prices and caps out-of-pocket costs for New Hampshire seniors."
• "This will save taxpayers billions of dollars, and start loosening Big Pharma's grip on drug prices."

Why it matters: While Democrats' advertising has mostly focused on abortion, new polls show the economy is a more pressing issue for swing voters.

• Hassan, facing a flawed Republican challenger, is trying to show she's dialed in on pocketbook issues even as inflation (particularly, rising home energy costs) drags down her party's fortunes.

Our thought bubble: It's a been a good week for the New Hampshire senator, between her winning the endorsement of the New Hampshire Police Association — which also endorsed GOP Gov. Chris Sununu — and top outside Republican groups dialing back on her rival Bolduc.

Pennsylvania GOP Senate nominee Mehmet Oz turns the tables on Democrats' tagging of Republicans as extreme in his latest ad blitz:

• In one ad, airing only in the Philadelphia media market, Oz talks about keeping children safe: "Extremism on both sides makes things worse. We need balance, less extremism in Washington."
• The second ad, airing in the rest of the state, features Oz speaking directly into the camera while attacking Democrat John Fetterman on inflation and presenting himself as the more mainstream candidate.

Why it matters: Tied to former President Trump's endorsement, Oz initially looked like the candidate with more ideological baggage. But Fetterman is now losing support, in part because his progressive views on crime have become a vulnerability with some swing voters.

A new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College survey of the swing district race between Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) and GOP businesswoman Lisa Scheller shows a statistical tie, 47% to 46%.

Why it matters: The Lehigh Valley battleground, a Biden +1 district, is one of the nation's House bellwethers.

• In a state where reproductive rights are in play, the number of respondents who said abortion was their top issue (28%) wasn't far behind those who ranked inflation as the top issue (34%).

Between the lines: There's a huge gender gap: Women favored Wild by a whopping 21 points (58% to 37%), while men support Scheller by 18 points (55% to 37%).

The big picture: The survey gave Democrat Josh Shapiro a 16-point lead over Republican Doug Mastriano in the governor's race, and Democrat John Fetterman a seven-point lead over Republican Mehmet Oz in the Senate race.

The bottom line: Even as bluer battlegrounds are looking surprisingly competitive, battle-tested House Democrats are holding their own in traditional swing districts like this one.

The Cook Political Report's Wasserman offered this notable nugget about the diversity of the House Republican recruiting class, in an interview with New York Magazine:

"Seventy percent of Republican challengers in the most vulnerable Democratic seats are women, minorities, and/or veterans. Thirty-eight percent of those candidates are military veterans, 34% are women, and 23% are nonwhite. There are even two nominees who are all three of those things."

Details: House Republicans are fielding a slate of 67 Black, Latino, Asian or Native American candidates on the ballot in November, according to the New York Times.

• Among the GOP nominees are four Black candidates in battleground districts: John James in Michigan; John Gibbs in Michigan; Jennifer-Ruth Green in Indiana, and George Logan in Connecticut.

Between the lines: House Republicans' 2020 wins gave them a roadmap. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy often recalls: "Every single Democrat either lost to a woman, minority or veteran."