Welcome to Sneak Peek, our weekly lookahead at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, plus our best scoops. (Smart Brevity word count: 1,755 words, ~6 minutes)
The 3rd episode of this season's "Axios on HBO" aired at 6pm ET/PT. You can catch up on HBO GO:
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Social conservatives say they've gotten more from President Trump than any other president, and a lot of it will last, Axios' Sam Baker reports.
The big picture: Activists and advocates are happy with Trump's policies. They are thrilled about his judicial confirmations. But what has really sent them over the moon, they say, is the way he talks about them and their issues — loudly, constantly and without reservation.
What they're saying: "If I could just pick one, I would pick Trump every time. I would pick Trump over any other president in terms of his energy and his commitment and his follow-through," said Marjorie Dannenfelser, the president of the anti-abortion group Susan B. Anthony List.
Trump has overseen a hard push to the right on abortion, LGBTQ rights and religious accommodations. Some of that, you might expect from any Republican president — but Trump has repeatedly upped the ante, going further than even his supporters expected.
Evangelical voters "are not only not disappointed that they backed Trump, they will likely back him and support him in even higher numbers in 2020," Ralph Reed, the head of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, told Axios.
What Trump has done:
What's next: Some of Trump's executive actions will likely only last as long as his administration. In many cases, he has reversed Obama-era policy decisions — some of which reversed Bush-era policy decisions, and which the next Democratic president could simply reverse again.
Go deeper: Read Sam's full piece on the Axios stream.
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
The vast majority of freshman House Democrats still won't support impeaching President Trump, with most preferring to wait until Congress has conducted more oversight investigations of the president, according to Axios' Alayna Treene's survey of all 64 of the new Democrats.
The bottom line: This was a followup to a survey Alayna did in January. At the time, most of the new House Dems were uninterested in discussing impeachment before special counsel Robert Mueller completed his investigation.
Between the lines: 23 of these freshmen Democrats won in districts that Trump won in 2016. To get re-elected they will need to stay on the good side of voters who are sympathetic to the president, which perhaps explains their cautiousness on impeachment.
By the numbers: Of the 64 freshmen House Democrats:
Those proportions fall roughly in line with the entire Democratic caucus, where just 66 of its 235 members publicly support launching an impeachment inquiry, according to an Axios analysis.
Yes, but: There are certain nuances in members' perspectives that don't come across in a straight tally. Among the "wait and see" House Dems:
What to watch: The numbers are low, but they could grow in the coming months — especially as support for impeachment grows among Democratic voters and as the House committees accelerate the pace of their investigations and the Trump administration continues to stonewall those efforts.
Go deeper: Here's the spreadsheet showing Alayna's reporting on where every new House Democrat stands on impeaching Trump.
President Trump to ABC News' George Stephanopoulos:
"I wasn't gonna fire [Robert Mueller]. You know why? Because I watched Richard Nixon go around firing everybody, and that didn't work out too well."
Photo: "Axios on HBO"
In an interview on "Axios on HBO," Mike Allen asked the surging 2020 Democrat and mayor of South Bend, Pete Buttigieg, whether as president he would move the U.S. embassy in Israel back to Tel Aviv.
Driving the news: Buttigieg said he wouldn't move the embassy back from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv. "I think what's done is done," he said, "I don't know that we'd gain much by moving it to Tel Aviv."
Why it matters: Many prominent Democrats excoriated President Trump for moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. They said he would inflame the region and ruin the chances for peace. It's telling that a prominent 2020 Democrat, when pressed on the issue, wouldn't reverse Trump's decision.
The Washington Post's Erica Werner and Seung Min Kim perfectly capture the dangerous uncertainty of the next few months in Washington:
Why it matters: "Trump and Congress face a trio of difficult budget issues. Congress must pass, and Trump must sign, funding legislation by Oct. 1 to avoid a new shutdown. They need to raise the federal debt limit around the same time, according to the latest estimates.
Behind the scenes: "Tensions between key Senate Republicans and White House acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney have been on display for months, and GOP lawmakers and aides partially blame that frayed relationship for the halting pace of talks.
"We're negotiating with ourselves right now," said Senate Appropriations Chairman Richard C. Shelby (R-Ala.). "The president, the administration, has some views, maybe, that are a little different sometimes than the Senate Republicans have. So we're trying to see if we can be together as best we can."
An exchange that will echo into the coming weeks as the Trump administration deliberates on how to respond to Iran's attacks on commercial shipping.
From today's interview on CBS' "Face the Nation," between host Margaret Brennan and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton:
Between the lines: Cotton is one of President Trump's closest confidants on Capitol Hill. And his opinion on responding aggressively to Iran will likely find a enthusiastic ear from Trump's hawkish National Security Adviser John Bolton.
The House will consider two massive packages of government spending bills, per a senior Democratic aide.
The Senate will confirm the Trump nominees in the order laid out below, with votes beginning Tuesday, per a Republican leadership aide. After confirming Guidry, the Senate will vote to proceed to the annual defense spending bill.
President Trump's schedule, per a White House official:
Norman Swan and Jonathan Swan, circa 1986.
Happy Father's Day to all the dads, and especially to my old man back in Australia, who is by far the best journalist in our family.
I love you, dad.