Welcome to Sneak Peek, our weekly lookahead for both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, plus our best scoops.
Tonight's newsletter is 1,741 words, a 6.5-minute read.
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President Trump has told friends and allies he worries about the stain impeachment will leave on his legacy.
In a phone call with House Republicans on Friday, Trump articulated why he really doesn't want this. Impeachment, Trump said, is a "bad thing to have on your resume," according to a source on the call. Two other sources on the call confirmed the substance of the comment, but one said they recalled Trump phrasing it as "you don't want it [impeachment] on your resume."
Why it matters: These two Trump quotes might seem like throwaways on what was a lengthy and discursive call with allies. But sources who have discussed impeachment candidly with the president say these comments perfectly encapsulate how Trump feels about it: He believes it could help him get re-elected and win back the House. But he doesn't want the history books recording Donald Trump as an impeached president.
Between the lines: Some prominent political analysts, including the New York Times' Ross Douthat, have speculated that the president might welcome articles of impeachment. Sources close to the president say this interpretation is dead wrong. Trump adamantly does not want to be impeached — because he cares, above all, about his legacy.
Behind the scenes: Many of Trump's advisers, both inside and out of the White House, have given him their unpleasant prediction that he will almost certainly be impeached by the House of Representatives. But they have also told him they believe there is almost no chance the Senate convicts him.
Trump's re-election campaign and the RNC are reportedly spending $10 million on advertising targeting Joe Biden and Democrats supporting impeachment.
Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images
In numerous recent conversations with colleagues, including last week's senior staff meeting, White House acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney has said he thinks President Trump could win 45 states in 2020 after the impeachment process — a magnitude of landslide that few if any independent pollsters would dare predict.
Between the lines: People who've heard Mulvaney make this remark say he wasn't joking or even exaggerating. He appears to genuinely believe that impeachment will have a profoundly positive effect on Trump's political fortunes, according to 3 sources who have heard Mulvaney make the 45-state prediction.
The big picture: Mulvaney's view is far from a consensus in Trump's orbit — some see considerable peril and downside political risk for the president as the impeachment inquiry moves forward — but his voice is one that the president hears every day and could bolster how Trump views the political dynamics of impeachment.
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
The Supreme Court is wasting no time diving into the thick of 2020 politics.
Why it matters: It's the first in a slew of polarizing issues the court will decide over the next 9 months. And Justice Brett Kavanaugh, a polarizing figure himself, will be at the center of it all.
The big picture: The court is slated to hear 3 related cases about LGBTQ rights — one of the specific areas where Kavanaugh's replacement of former Justice Anthony Kennedy may make the most difference.
American manufacturers rode a wave of optimism after President Trump took office, clinging to his promises to revive the industry and bring back jobs.
Driving the news: The manufacturing sector added 18,000 jobs in September of last year, following a steady rise in employment.
And while President Trump has blamed the Federal Reserve for the slump, and White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow punted responsibility to Europe, business groups and manufacturers say there's no question Trump's trade war is the real problem.
White House spokesperson Judd Deere told Axios: "The fundamentals of the economy are strong because of this president’s pro-growth policies, and the White House does not see an imminent economic downturn."
Rep. Jim Jordan on ABC's "This Week," Oct. 6.
Some of President Trump's defenders are testing a new line: that Trump was just joking last week and/or baiting the press when he said China should investigate Joe Biden and his son.
Why it matters: Republicans have struggled to find a unifying message in response to Trump's China remarks, which were criticized heavily by lawmakers on both sides of the aisle.
Photo: Mark Wilson/Getty Images
The House and Senate are on recess until Oct. 15.
However, the House Intelligence, Oversight and Foreign Affairs committees have confirmed that the following officials will appear for hearings in relation to their investigation of Trump and Ukraine, per a committee aide:
President Trump's schedule, per a White House official:
Photo: Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images
With the exception of a small band of true believers like Sean Hannity and Judge Jeanine Pirro, President Trump has grown disillusioned with Fox News and often complains the network doesn't have his back.
Into this breach has stepped more fervently loyal outlets, like Breitbart News. The website, often led by its Washington editor Matt Boyle and editor-in-chief Alex Marlow, has gone into 24-7 campaign mode against Trump's impeachment. A representative Breitbart headline: "While Democrats pursue impeachment, President Trump builds impressive record of accomplishments."
The big picture: The entire Biden-Ukraine narrative began with "Secret Empires," a book by Breitbart's senior contributor Peter Schweizer. Ahead of the last election, Schweizer published "Clinton Cash," which portrayed Bill and Hillary Clinton as corrupt grifters and set the tone of some influential coverage in 2016. (Trump promoted Schweizer's book on Twitter yesterday.)
What we're seeing:
Flashback: We're coming up on 2 years since Steve Bannon was forced out of Breitbart and publicly trashed by the president. The ultra-right-wing website spent some time on the outs from the White House as a result of Bannon's exile, but it's now back as one of Trump's go-to outlets.