House Republicans are increasingly confident they can make unexpected inroads into some solidly Democratic congressional districts, including in some of the bluest states in the country: California, Connecticut, New York, Oregon and Rhode Island.

Why it matters: Following the money is as important as following the (limited) congressional public polling. Republicans are now pouring over $25 million into some of the bluest political battlegrounds on the map — a fresh sign that the political winds favor the GOP down the home stretch.

• The Congressional Leadership Fund, aligned with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, has spent or reserved over $23 million on ads in eight Democratic-held districts that President Biden carried by double-digit margins. (Ariz.-4, Calif.-13, Calif.-47, Calif.-49, Conn.-5, N.Y.-17, Ore.-4, R.I.-2.)
• The NRCC is also spending $2.2 million on coordinated or hybrid ad buys with their nominees in five more Democratic-held districts that Biden carried by double-digits. (Calif.-26, Ga.-2, N.M.-3, N.Y.-4, Ore.-6).

Zoom in: Republicans are bullish they can win the Oregon governor's race for the first time since 1982, boosted by an intra-Democratic feud. Democrats are playing furious defense in three Biden-friendly House battlegrounds in Oregon as well.

• In a Rhode Island district that Biden carried by 14 points, a new Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll found Republican Allan Fung leading by eight points over Democrat Seth Magaziner.
• In a Connecticut district Biden won by 11, Republicans are spending $2.7 million to boost George Logan, a moderate Black state legislator, against Rep. Jahana Hayes.
• Democrats are also concerned about several New York battlegrounds, even after an expectation-defying special election victory by Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) in August. That includes the redrawn suburban New York City seat of DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney — which would be a hugely symbolic GOP pickup.

Between the lines: One common denominator in most of these blue-state races: Crime. Murders have been on the rise in major metropolitan areas within these states and near these districts, and the GOP's advertising has hit Democrats over bail reform, reallocating resources away from police, and an overall sense of disorder.

• Another factor favoring the GOP, according to one Republican official analyzing internal data, is that abortion isn't as motivating of an issue — voters are more confident reproductive rights are secure in states where Republicans are in the minority.
• In addition, none of these blue states has hotly contested Senate races driving up turnout, a dynamic that benefits Republicans.

The bottom line: The fact that Biden spent political capital in Democratic strongholds Oregon and California this week — less than a month before Election Day — speaks volumes about the national mood.

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Here's a scorecard of five of the most notable double-digit Biden districts where Republicans are going on offense.

Between the lines: If Republicans pick up even a couple of these districts, it's a sign of a sizable red wave.

1. California's 13th (Biden +11): This majority-Hispanic Central Valley district pits a moderate Democratic insider (state Assemblyman Adam Gray) against a Republican outsider (businessman John Duarte). One major line of attack for Duarte is over Gray's vote to raise California's gas tax, a potent issue in a state where gas prices are the highest in the country. Gray has argued his independent voting record contrasts favorably against Duarte's partisanship.
2. California's 47th (Biden +11): Rep. Katie Porter is one of the most iconic House progressives, known for grilling business executives with hard-hitting questioning at oversight hearings. But despite her massive campaign war chest ($15.8 million on hand at the end of September), Republicans believe her views are out-of-step with the suburban Orange County district. Outside Republican groups are making a late $2.4 million investment in the race on behalf of former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh.
3. Connecticut's 5th (Biden +11): House Republicans made a concerted effort to diversify their recruiting class, fielding 67 non-white nominees this year. One of their strongest recruits is Logan, a Black former state senator and mechanical engineer whose ads distance himself from the national Republican Party. He's challenging Connecticut's first Black congresswoman Hayes, who is facing her first competitive race since being elected in 2018.
4. Oregon's 6th (Biden +13): This newly created district was intended to give Democrats an extra seat in the Oregon delegation. Instead, the race between Democratic state Rep. Andrea Salinas and Republican businessman Mike Erickson is going down to the wire, according to strategists from both parties. Erickson is spending millions of his own money on the campaign, attacking Salinas for votes cutting police funding in the state legislature. Salinas has focused on Erickson's opposition to abortion, while also hitting him for a 2016 DUI arrest.
5. Rhode Island's 2nd: (Biden +14): Republicans haven't won a House seat in Rhode Island since 1992 but are growing optimistic that former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung can break the streak against Democrat Seth Magaziner. Democrats are portraying Fung as extreme on abortion, while Republicans are airing cheeky ads painting Magaziner as an out-of-touch child of privilege. Publicly available polling, including an internal survey released by the Magaziner campaign, shows Fung in the lead.

This attack ad from Oregon Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tina Kotek — against Republican Christine Drazan — is an attempt to nationalize a blue-state governor's race in which the Democrat is struggling.

• The ad ties Drazan to some of the Republican Party's right-wing figures, including former President Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. "These MAGA Republicans wear it on their sleeves. This one tries to hide it," the ad begins.

Between the lines: President Biden joined Kotek on the campaign trail Friday in Oregon, one of the few battleground states where he's not seen as a political liability.

• "What a governor does matters. ... It matters, it matters, it matters!" Biden said to a group of Oregon Democrats at a grassroots volunteer event, as he held Kotek's hand.
• Meanwhile, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is traveling to Oregon on Tuesday to campaign for Drazan, with his team making the connection between his upset victory last year and her underdog candidacy in 2022.

Our thought bubble: The ad is reminiscent of Democrat Terry McAuliffe's unsuccessful attempt to tie Youngkin to Trump in the Virginia governor's race last year. Youngkin's victory in a blue state showed that GOP candidates with their own independent reputations are tough to caricature.

If Democrats are nationalizing blue-state races like Oregon's, this new attack ad from Drazan speaks volumes about how dominant crime and urban disorder are in the GOP's blue-state messaging.

• "Tina Kotek stood with defund-the-police extremists, she legalized tent cities and voted with Kate Brown to let murderers and rapists out of prison early," the ad begins.

The other side: "Oregonians are justifiably frustrated and want real solutions to homelessness, crime and the cost of living," Kotek spokesman Katie Wertheimer told Axios. "Tina will do what [Gov.] Kate Brown couldn't or wouldn’t and finally declare that state of emergency, and she will hire crews to clean up the trash."

🗣️ Notable quotable: Nike c0-founder Phil Knight, the leading donor to independent candidate Betsy Johnson and Drazan, told the New York Times: "One of the political cartoons after our legislative session had a person snorting cocaine out of a mountain of white. It said, ‘Which of these is illegal in Oregon?’ And the answer was the plastic straw."

• Oregon voters backed a referendum in 2020 to decriminalize small amounts of hard drugs like cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine — a move critics argue has fueled the crime spike.

By the numbers: A recent Morning Consult poll found Brown is the least popular U.S. governor. Oregon is the only state in the country in which a majority of voters disapprove of their governor's performance, the survey found.

A new Marquette Law poll of likely voters in Wisconsin shows Republican Sen. Ron Johnson pulling ahead of Democrat Mandela Barnes in the state's battleground Senate race.

• The survey, conducted between Oct. 3-9, finds Johnson leading Barnes 52%-46% — a notable increase from the pollster's September survey showing a statistical tie.
• Both candidates have net unfavorable ratings, but Barnes' popularity in particular has faded amid a barrage of negative attacks centering on his criminal justice views.
• Independent voters are the critical voting bloc in the state, and they now favor Johnson by six points (51%-45%).

Zoom out: The poll also finds the state's governor's race statistically tied, with Democratic Gov. Tony Evers holding a 47%-46% lead over Republican businessman Tim Michels.

⚡ What to watch: Former President Obama is hitting the trail in Wisconsin in the race's final weeks to stump for Barnes and Evers.