A few select races will tell Congress' top leaders whether it's champagne or coffee on the menu — even if we don't have definitive results tomorrow night.

Why it matters: You'll have to try harder than isolating a single county, district or precinct. But you can score a clearer picture by piecing together certain demographic groups from early returns.

6pm ET: The early Midwest indicator. Polls close in parts of Indiana, where Republicans are watching the governor's race.

• "If Trump is not doing 55%+, it could be a bad Midwest indicator for Republicans," said former Rep Tom Davis, who ran the NRCC for several cycles.

7pm ET: Educated exurban voters.

• If GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans is upset in Virginia's 2nd District, a classic swing district, House Republicans are going to be very worried.
• If Democrats lose Virginia's 7th District, currently held by Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, they'll will begin to get very panicky. They might have a problem with educated exurban voters.

7:30pm ET: Clearer picture of the Black vote.

• "On election night, I'm looking at [North Carolina's 1st District as to] whether or not Kamala Harris energized Black voter turnout," House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) told us.

7:30pm ET: Which way, and how fast, the Ohio Senate race is decided.

• NRSC executive director Jason Thielman told us he thinks Ohio could be called for Republican Bernie Moreno early tomorrow night — which would likely ensure a GOP Senate majority.
• If Sen. Sherrod Brown holds on, Republicans might have to wait until Montana closes at 10pm ET. That's where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester has been a top target for Republicans as he battles Tim Sheehy.

8pm ET: White union households, state workers and college kids, via Michigan.

• Democrats and Republicans will be looking at the Lansing area U.S. House seat for a read on how white union households and state government workers are trending. Biden won that 7th District seat — now held by Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who's running for Senate — by less than a point in 2020.
• "MI-07 is a must win on both sides and will have implications for both the presidential and Senate election in the state," Emmer said. "House Republicans are right where we need to be."

— Hans Nichols, Stef Kight and Stephen Neukam

In the House, Hakeem Jeffries' Democrats think if they have a good showing against Florida GOP Reps. Anna Paulina Luna or Maria Salazar in the state's 13th and 27th districts, it will mean a great night for them overall.

• Republicans go in as favorites in both districts.

In Pennsylvania, Republicans are keeping a close eye on Democratic Reps. Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright in the state's 7th and 8th districts, while Democrats are watching GOP Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) in the 10th District.

• All three races are toss-ups.

In New York, polls don't close until 9pm ET and mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day can be counted until a week after Nov. 5, but the sheer number of battleground districts makes it worth watching.

• A decisive result in New York's 19th District, where Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) is fighting for reelection, could preview the night ahead.

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— Andrew Solender

The touchiest subject in the House struck again today over whether both parties will commit to certifying the presidential winner in January, no matter who wins.

• Jeffries today on "Good Morning America": "My colleagues on the other side of the aisle don't seem to be capable of unequivocally saying that they will certify the election and the verdict that is rendered by the American people."
• Mike Johnson to us in an exclusive interview late last month: "I would hope every member of Congress, including [House Oversight Committee ranking member] Jamie Raskin, would commit to following the Constitution and certifying the election."
• Raskin, in a statement to us, said he is "of course committed to following the Constitution and certifying the actual results of the 2024 presidential election, and I'm thrilled to learn that Speaker Johnson says he is too."

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— Andrew Solender and Juliegrace Brufke