Axios Seattle

December 26, 2024
Hello, Thursday! Axios real estate reporters Brianna Crane and Sami Sparber here, asking housing market experts to look into the future.
Today's newsletter is 670 words — a 2.5-minute read.
1 big thing: 🏠 What 2025 could bring
2025 may bring more homes but with familiar high prices.
Why it matters: Many people will remain locked out of homeownership.
Here's what experts and industry pros predict is in store for mortgage rates, new builds, moves and more next year.
Rates will remain above 6%
U.S. mortgage rates are expected to be in the low- to mid-6% range at the end of 2025, according to Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale.
- Redfin's economists forecast rates to stay higher, near 7%.
Between the lines: "We're not going to see a big change in the affordability picture," Hale tells Axios.
- "It's still going to be challenging to get into the housing market," especially for first-time buyers, she says.
Lower mortgage rates "could even exacerbate" the country's housing crunch, Josh Altman, real estate agent and former cast member of "Million Dollar Listing L.A.," tells Axios.
- That's because "as mortgages become more affordable, more buyers are going to enter the market, creating greater competition and ultimately higher home prices," says Altman, who's also co-founder of Redy, a platform for home sellers and agents.
More new homes
Chief economist Lawrence Yun at the National Association of Realtors expects more single-family new builds.
- "There is still a housing shortage, and homebuilders are making good profits to continue expansion," he says.
Fewer "locked-in" homeowners
The mortgage "lock-in" effect, which has contributed to the housing market's woes by discouraging homeowners from moving, won't disappear next year — but it will lessen, Hale says.
By the numbers: In mid-2024, 84% of homeowners with a mortgage had a rate under 6%, down from 89% a year earlier, per a Realtor.com analysis.
- Hale expects that share to fall to 75% by the end of 2025, as more people choose to part with their current home loan.
2. Still-high mortgage rates


The average rate on the 30-year-mortgage was around 6.7% heading into the holidays, according to Freddie Mac.
The big picture: That's up from around 6% when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September.
- The central bank has continued to lower rates, while signaling fewer cuts are coming in 2025.
The bottom line: Mortgage rates hovered mostly between 6% and 7% this year.
Go deeper: Why mortgage rates are climbing
3. 🏘️ Trend to watch: "Rentvesting"
If you can't afford a house in your city, what about an investment property somewhere else?
Why it matters: Some people are becoming homeowners while continuing to live in their rental apartments.
How it works: That approach can make sense for renters with extra cash who want to remain in a costly area and start building equity, according to Realtor.com's Hale.
- They could "look for a less-expensive market where their savings might be able to translate into a nice down payment," Hale told CNBC.
Dubbed "rentvesting," the strategy often involves taking on landlord responsibility from afar.
4. New year's resolutions for your home
If home improvement projects are on your 2025 to-do list, here are some expert tips to help make achieving your goals a little easier.
💸 Goal: Improve home value
Pro tip: Spring for a kitchen remodel, which can help sell your home down the line.
- A good rule of thumb is to budget 15% of your home's value for the renovation.
🎨 Goal: Low-lift, high-impact change
Pro tip: Paint your walls with saturated jewel tones or soothing nature-inspired hues, if that's your vibe.
- If you're up for pattern play, try a wallpaper border or cover your bookshelves in personality-packed peel-and-stick.
🪴 Goal: Grow your own food
Pro tip: Start with a small herb garden before diving into homesteading.
- Herbs grow well in most climates and can even grow in a pot indoors.
🧹 Goal: Clear clutter
Pro tip: Put the credit card down (no fancy containers needed) and block out time to make cleaning a priority. Happiness researcher Gretchen Rubin calls it a "loose ends day."
- You'll feel much better after you purge your closet or recycle those empty Amazon boxes.
☕️ Goal: Add daily luxury
Pro tip: Upgrade your coffee routine. Custom beverage stations are a coveted home feature, according to design pros.
5. 📸 Flex your basement
We want to hear about — and see photos of — your downstairs haven.
- Have you upgraded the basement with a wine cellar, spa or other lavish features?
- Added a bunker or safe room for extra security?
- If you've kept its retro charm, any plans to renovate?
Email [email protected] with your full name and neighborhood. We may feature your insights in an upcoming story.
Our 2025 crystal ball:
🛋 Bri sees a new sofa in her future.
📚 Sami sees a bookcase to show off her collection.
Thanks to our editor Ashley May.
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