Wednesday!

🌤️ Today's weather: Mostly sunny, with a high of 78 and a low of 59.

🎧 Sounds like: "Flip A Switch" by RAYE.

🎂 Happy birthday to our members Wally Allen, Tracey Heckel and Carolyn Peifer!

🌊 Situational awareness: Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, on track to gain as many as 40 House seats and at least seven Senate seats in one of the biggest midterm election waves in modern American history. 5 takeaways, via Axios

Today’s newsletter is 1,057 words — a 4-minute read.

Two Richmond-area congressional are too close to call as of Wednesday morning, according to AP.

Why it matters: The tight races underscore just how competitive Virginia's congressional battlegrounds have become.

State of play: Democrat Shannon Taylor appears poised to win Virginia's 1st Congressional District, per the latest tally, and unseat longtime Republican Rep. Rob Wittman.

• Taylor, the commonwealth's attorney for Henrico, was ahead of Wittman 50.5% to 49.3%, according to the AP, with all precincts reporting, but mail-in votes yet to be counted.
• Wittman has represented the district since 2007 and won reelection in 2024 by nearly 13 percentage points, per the Virginia Public Access Project.
• The 1st District includes parts of Henrico and Chesterfield, all of Hanover and stretches east to the Chesapeake Bay. Republicans have held the seat since 1977, per VPM.

Meanwhile: In the 5th District, Republican incumbent John McGuire appears poised to defeat Democrat and former congressman Tom Perriello and independent Cooke Harvey, per the latest tally.

• McGuire won 50% of the vote to Perriello's 48% in the district that includes Goochland, Powhatan and parts of Hanover, with all precincts reporting.

4th District Democratic incumbent Rep. Jennifer McClellan easily held off challenges from Republican Robert Murray Jr. and independent Joan Bell, per AP.

• McClellan, whose district includes Richmond and parts of Henrico, Chesterfield and the Tri-Cities, won with 72% of the vote, per the latest count from the Virginia Department of Elections.

Zoom out: In another closely watched race, a rematch, former Rep. Elaine Luria unseated Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans in the 2nd District, per AP, flipping the seat for Democrats.

• Virginia Democrats entered the midterms holding six seats to Republicans' five, after an unsuccessful push to redraw the state's congressional map to give Democrats an advantage in 10 districts.
• After election night, they're poised to have eight of the state's 11 U.S. House seats.

Full story

Richmond and Chesterfield voters are poised to approve sales tax hikes that could generate $117 million a year to rebuild and renovate aging public schools.

Why it matters: Both localities face massive school construction bills.

How it works: The measure allows each locality to raise its sales tax from 6% to 7%, but local officials still have to vote to enact it.

The vote break down, per unofficial results from the Virginia Department of Elections:

Richmond sales tax referendum

As of 6am, roughly 67% of voters had approved the increase, which officials estimate could generate $47 million annually.

Chesterfield sales tax referendum

About 50.5% of voters approved the proposed increase, which could raise up to $70 million annually — but the razor-thin margin makes it eligible for a recount.

Other local winners:

Richmond School Board, 6th District: Jackie McDonnough poised to win.

Chesterfield School Board, Clover Hill: Christina Brady poised to win. .

Hanover sheriff: Gregory Six poised to win.

🗳️ Sen. Mark Warner won reelection for his fourth and final term, defeating Republican Bert Mizusawa with 61% of the vote. (AP)

👀 Controversial former state Sen. Joe Morrissey was elected to Petersburg City Council, unseating 16-year incumbent Howard Myers, according to unofficial election results. (WTVR)

Richmond police found no credible danger after bomb and shooting threats prompted security checks at three polling places: Albert Hill Middle, Thomas Jefferson High and Barack Obama Elementary. (News release)

• Voting continued at all three locations.

🚰 Water pressure was restored around 9pm Monday after a driver struck a utility pole in Oregon Hill, but the crash affected power at two polling places — Clark Springs and Randolph Community Center — until about 7am yesterday. (News release)

• RPD told Axios the driver was charged with felony hit-and-run.

🚨 A Chesterfield man was arrested in South Carolina in connection with last week's shooting outside Virginia GOP headquarters in downtown Richmond. (News release)

⛺️ A Richmond couple is preparing to open Camp Yellow Cardinal — a new, 25-acre glamping campground near Farmville next month. (BizSense)

• The adults-only glampground features hot tubs, a bath house and climate-controlled domes.

Virginia voters approved three constitutional amendments yesterday, per AP, on abortion, marriage equality and voting rights — changes that could shape the state's highest law for generations.

Why it matters: The results cement Virginia's status as an outlier in the South on abortion rights, while making protections for some of the nation's most fiercely debated rights harder for future lawmakers to undo.

• But both the marriage equality and reproductive rights amendments face separate legal challenges seeking to block certification of their results.

What's next: The amendments take effect Jan. 1, 2027, per the Virginia Department of Elections.

Here's how Virginians voted on the three amendments, as of 11pm.

🏥 Reproductive rights: PASSED — 62%

💍 Marriage equality: PASSED — 57%

🗳️ Voting rights: PASSED — 56%

How we got here

Virginians weren't the only ones invested in the midterm elections.

By the numbers: More than $2.7 million in reported trading volume was generated by Richmond's three congressional races — the 1st, 4th and 5th districts — on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket as of 3pm yesterday, per an Axios tally.

• That's up from roughly $1.5 million across the state's three most heavily traded races a week earlier.
• And trading remained open as of the tally, meaning final totals could climb.

Zoom in: The 5th District race drew the most activity, generating nearly $1.9 million in trading volume as of 3pm .

• The 1st District followed with nearly $800,000, while the 4th generated way less, about $74,000.

Meanwhile: Advertisers spent nearly $33.6 million on those same three congressional races this election cycle, per VPAP.

Tell a bettor

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Thanks to Alexa Mencia Orozco for editing today's edition