North Carolina remains on strong economic footing despite some uncertainty over which new policies might emerge from a new Trump administration, Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, told members of the Greater Raleigh Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday.

Why it matters: North Carolina's economy has boomed since the pandemic, with the state attracting new workers at one of the fastest rates in the country and companies continuing to move to the state and create jobs.

• But while President-elect Trump has provided clues about which policies he'll pursue, it remains to be seen what actually gets implemented on issues like tariffs, immigration and deregulation, Barkin said.

What they're saying: "[E]ven when you know the direction you're going, it's hard to book a trip without knowing your final destination," Barkin said in his speech.

• "Take tariffs, for example," he added, "What tariff rates will actually be imposed? On what countries? On which products? For how long? Will there be retaliation? If so, at what levels? ... I could lay out a comparable set of questions around other policy areas in the discussion, such as immigration, regulation, government spending and taxation."

Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo, added after Barkin's speech that tariffs would create immediate inflation and drag down GDP growth, though he noted deregulation could lead to more business investment in 2026.

Yes, but: Barkin said despite the uncertainty, his baseline outlook on the economy is positive due to strong consumer spending, slowing inflation, companies' hesitancy to cut workers and increased productivity following the pandemic.

Zoom in: North Carolina, Barkin added after his speech, is also in an especially strong position due to its position as a top-five state for job creation and housing permits.

• Many states are not creating as much housing as North Carolina, which is making homes more expensive and less likely to attract newcomers, he said.
• "There are a lot of good answers to [why North Carolina's economy is doing well], some of which I do think is the ability to build housing" around the large population centers in the Triangle, Charlotte and Triad, Barkin said.
• "I think [North Carolina is] a community that is still welcoming growth."

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Winter temperatures in Raleigh are rising and climate change is driving the trend, according to a new report from Climate Central, a climate science organization.

Why it matters: More warm winter days can have knock-on effects on water supply the following warm season, Axios' Andrew Freedman reports.

By the numbers: In Raleigh, 78% of the winter season in 2023 was above-freezing minimum temperatures. In a model without global warming, this number would drop to 67%, according to Climate Central.

Meanwhile, last year was the warmest year on record in Raleigh, with an average temperature of just over 75°F.

• Hundreds of other places in the U.S. also experienced their hottest year on record.

Yes, but: This week's temperatures are chilly, with "wintry precipitation" possible Friday and Saturday, per the National Weather Service.

Go deeper on the impact of warmer winter days

House of Art in downtown Raleigh caught fire early Tuesday morning, severely damaging the building. (ABC11)

🥯 Amid a larger North Carolina expansion, a Raleigh location is "in the plans" for PopUp Bagels, the popular Paul Rudd-backed brand that's known for serving bagels whole (unsliced) to be dipped into cream cheese. (Axios)

North Carolina state lawmakers return today to begin the legislature's two-year session, this time without a Republican supermajority. (News & Observer 🔒)

• Elections officials certified the remaining contested state legislative races Monday, confirming that Democrats broke the GOP supermajority by just one seat.

Whataburger is expanding to North Carolina with multiple restaurants opening in 2025.

Why it matters: For years, rumors have swirled about the fan-favorite Texas chain branching into North Carolina. The company — known for its fat burgers, spicy ketchup and limited edition menu items — has now confirmed exact locations and rough timelines.

The locations are in Gastonia, Charlotte, Hickory, Indian Land, High Point and Archdale.

• The closest locations to Raleigh are Winston-Salem (291 Harvey St.) and Greensboro (address forthcoming). Both will open in late summer.

Zoom in: All stores are in various stages of construction. They'll be modern restaurants with double drive-thrus and digital conveniences, such as curbside ordering.

• Whataburgers stay open 24/7, serving breakfast from 11pm to 11am.
• The company has been preparing for its introduction into North Carolina by meeting with elected officials and community leaders this week.
• In recent years, it established a meat plant in Atlanta to set up the supply chain for fresh beef.
• Whataburger confirmed it was coming to North Carolina last year. Soon after, it filed a trademark lawsuit against several North Carolina restaurants with nearly identical names, WBTV reported.

The big picture: Whataburger is building on its successful splash into the Southeast, including in South Carolina in 2024. When that location opened in Boiling Springs, customers began lining up the night before and lines continued for the next two days.

What's next: Whataburger has plans to open in Raleigh eventually, too.

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