One of the first things I learned as a young deals reporter was that private markets always follow public markets, although the lag length varies.

• 2024 will put that maxim to the test.

The big picture: 2023 was slow for both venture capital and private equity, in terms of both deals and fundraising.

• Global buyout value fell 30% year-over-year, with a slight bump in deal number, per LSEG. Both global and U.S. venture capital disbursements dropped around 35%, according to a PitchBook database search.
• Public stock values, on the other hand, soared in 2023. The S&P 500, for example, rose 24.2%, while the Nasdaq climbed 43%.

Look ahead: If everything holds to form, private market activity should accelerate in the coming months; particularly if the Fed cuts rates, thus loosening both lender and LP wallets.

• Such optimism is palpable when speaking with VC and PE investors, although that's almost always true heading into a new year.

One big variable: The presidential election is 2024's known unknown, and could spook investors once we hit Labor Day.

The bottom line: Corrections are necessary, but they aren't eternal. Let's go!

Iberdrola (Madrid: IBE) terminated its $4.3 billion agreement to acquire Albuquerque-based utility PNM Resources (NYSE: PNM), which it would have merged with U.S. renewables business Avangrid (NYSE: AGR).

Why it's the BFD: This is a reminder that state regulators can be just as thorny for dealmakers as are federal regulators.

Details: This merger was inked in late 2020 and touted as creating the country's third-largest renewable energy company. But New Mexico utility authorities rejected the deal in 2021, leading to a protracted court battle that Iberdrola today opted to end.

• PNM had offered to again extend the closing deadline, and says it's "greatly disappointed" by Iberdrola's decision.
• With assumed debt included, the merger would have been worth more than $8.5 billion.

What to watch: Iberdrola may seek reduce its 81.6% stake in Avangrid, which has around a $12.5 billion market cap.

• Vestwell, a New York-based workplace savings platform, raised $125m in Series D funding at around a $1b valuation. Lightspeed Venture Partners led, and was joined by Fin Capital, Primary Venture Partners, FinTech Collective, Blue Owl, and HarbourVest. https://axios.link/3S0dZHh

• Addressable, an Israeli web3 growth marketing startup, raised $6m. Bitkraft Ventures led, and was joined by Karatage, Viola Ventures, Fabric Ventures, Mensch Capital Partners, and North Island Ventures. https://axios.link/48zdREd

• Labrys Technologies, a British developer of defense-tech software, raised $5.5m in seed funding led by Project A Ventures. www.labrys.tech

⚡ Lumian, a Turkish IoT SaaS for energy usage, raised $3.2m in first-round funding from Domino Ventures and İsmail Ferhat Özlü. https://axios.link/3tBTPKu

Fidelity in November marked down the value of its shares in X Holdings by 10.7%, which brings its overall markdown to 71.5%. Go deeper.

⚡ American Industrial Partners agreed to buy Boart Longyear, a Utah-based drilling services firm listed in Australia (BLY) for US$371m. https://axios.link/3TZwM7h

⚡ Ara Partners agreed to buy a majority stake in USD Clean Fuels, a developer of North American terminal assets for renewable fuel feedstocks and biofuels. www.arapartners.com

• Blackstone agreed to buy a majority stake in Sony Payment Services from Sony Group (Tokyo: 6758), which retains a 20% stake, for a reported $280m. https://axios.link/48SPbXB

⚡ Blackstone Infrastructure Partners completed its $2.15b purchase of a 19.9% stake in NIPSCO, an Indiana electricity and gas distributor, from NiSource (NYSE: NI). https://axios.link/3NiyU4J

🚀 Cerberus and Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin each submitted buyout bids for United Launch Alliance, a Colorado-based rocket launch venture owned by Boeing (NYSE: BA) and Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) that could fetch more than $2b, per the WSJ. https://axios.link/3RYOTbJ

• Flightcheck Commercial Aviation Services, a Bensenville, Ill.-based portfolio company of Lineage Capital, acquired Keenan Technical Industries, a provider of aircraft maintenance services to airline operators in Connecticut and New Hampshire. www.flightcheck.us

• Fourshore Partners acquired Power Funding, a Tyler, Texas-based provider of working capital to the oil & gas and trucking industries. www.powerfundingltd.com

• Frontline Road Safety, a portfolio company of The Sterling Group, acquired Aeromark, a Streetsboro, Ohio-based pavement marking contractor. www.frontlineroadsafety.com

• Leonard Green & Partners agreed to buy a stake in Iris Software, a British back-office software provider, from Hg (with which Leonard Green will share control) at around a £3.15b valuation. https://axios.link/3RVHav7

• Monomoy Capital Partners agreed to buy Waupaca Foundry, a Wisconsin-based supplier of cast and machined iron castings, from Japan's Proterial. https://axios.link/48hlqj6

• The Riverside Company acquired Impact XM, a Dayton, N.J.-based experiential marketing services provider for Fortune 500 clients. www.impact-xm.com

🐮 Platinum Equity agreed to acquire dairy brands Horizon Organic and Wallaby from Danone (Paris: BN). https://axios.link/47eWqb3

• Salt Creek Capital acquired Vantage Vehicle International, a Corona, Calif.-based maker of low-speed utility vehicles. www.vantagevehicles.com

• Stonepeak Partners agreed to acquire a minority stake in AA Ltd., a British breakdown coverage firm. No financial terms were disclosed, but Sky News pegged the check size at £450m. https://axios.link/3NMxUXL

• Swander Pace Capital, CDPQ, and Roynat agreed to buy a majority stake in Québec-based St-Méthode Bakery. www.boulangeriestmethode.com

• Kaspi.kz, a Kazakhstani super app, filed for a $100m IPO and plans to list on the Nasdaq (KSPI). https://axios.link/3NLHnPb

• Lionsgate (NYSE: LGF) agreed to spin out its Starz studio business at a $4.6b enterprise value via Screaming Eagle Acquisition (Nasdaq: SCRM), the ninth SPAC from Jeff Sagansky and Harry Sloan. https://axios.link/3RDOk5V

• Blaize, an El Dorado Hills, Calif.-based edge computing company, agreed to go public at an implied $894m valuation via BurTech Acquisition Corp. (Nasdaq: BRKH), a SPAC led by real estate and VC investor Shahal Khan. Blaize had raised around $175m in VC funding from firms like GGV Capital, Temasek, Denso International America, TLG Capital Management, and Franklin Venture Partners. https://axios.link/3tBJUEG

🚑 Custom Health, a West Hollywood, Calif.-based medication management company, agreed to go public at an implied $185m pre-money valuation via Berenson Acquisition Corp. I (NYSE American: BACA). https://axios.link/3tBJK02

• Femco Steel Technology, a Taiwanese golf club maker, agreed to go public via Chenghe Acquisition I (Nasdaq: CHEA). https://axios.link/41HURRu

• Iron Horse Acquisitions, a media and entertainment SPAC chaired by Brian Turner (ex-CFO of Coinstar), raised $61m in its IPO. https://axios.link/4aOriSK

• PSI Group, a Hong Kong-based logistics and supply chain firm, agreed to go public at an implied $200m pre-money valuation via AIB Acquisition (Nasdaq: AIB), a SPAC led by Eric Chen (CEO of American International Bank). https://axios.link/3RYHNE9

🚑 Visiox Pharmaceuticals, a Tarrytown, N.Y.-based developer of ophthalmic therapeutics, agreed to go public via PowerUp Acquisition Corp. (Nasdaq: PWUP), which originally was formed as a media and entertainment SPAC led by ex-Vivendi Games and Sony execs. https://axios.link/3vnWyaI

• LLCP hired Robert W. Baird to find a buyer for Tropical Smoothie Café, an Atlanta-based restaurant chain that could fetch around $2b, per Reuters. https://axios.link/3NMxEIh

🚑 PAI Partners agreed to sell ELITech, a French maker of in-vitro diagnostics, to Bruker (Nasdaq: BRKR) for €870m. https://axios.link/3tBv7K5

• TPG agreed to sell its 35% stake in Singapore Life Holdings (Singlife) to Sumitomo Life Insurance for around US$1.2b. https://axios.link/3NJySnG

🚑 AstraZeneca (LSE: AZN) agreed to buy Gracell (Nasdaq: GRCL), a Chinese developer of cancer and autoimmune disease therapies, for up to $1.2b in cash. https://axios.link/3H1YZSW

• Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) no longer will pay $3.6b to buy the video live-streaming unit of Joyy (Nasdaq: YY), with the deal expiring after three years due to a failure to approve Chinese regulatory approval. https://axios.link/3tu2rmt

🚑 Bristol Myers Squibb (BYSE: BMY) agreed to buy San Diego-based cancer therapy developer RayzeBio (Nasdaq: RYZB) for $4.1b in cash. https://axios.link/3NJQsb2

• Cal-Maine Foods (Nasdaq: CALM) agreed to buy a recently-closed chicken plant in Dexter, Mo., from Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN). https://axios.link/3RGRl5t

• HSBC (LSE: HSBA) completed the sale of its France retail banking business to Crédit Commercial de France, a unit of My Money Group. https://axios.link/4aDS00d

🚑 LumiraDx (Nasdaq: LMDC) agreed to sell its point-of-care diagnostics business to Roche (Swiss: ROG) for around $295m. https://axios.link/4aDk18b

• Robinhood (Nasdaq: HOOD) agreed to buy Chartr, a British media startup focused on data visualization and newsletters. https://axios.link/3S0fwgv

🚑 UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) agreed to sell its Brazil operations to José Seripieri Filho, founder and ex-CEO of Qualicorp. No terms were disclosed, although reports put the price tag just above $500m, with UNH taking a $7b charge. https://axios.link/48fVtAz

• Warner Bros. Discovery (Nasdaq: WBD) has held preliminary merger talks with Paramount Global (Nasdaq: PARA), as first reported by Axios. https://axios.link/3tpdcq8

⚡ Williams (NYSE: WMB) will pay $1.95b for a portfolio of natural gas storage assets from Hartree Partners. https://axios.link/3NLaUs3

• Clearhaven Partners, a Boston-based PE firm focused on software, raised $580m for its second fund. www.clearhavenpartners.com

• Edgewater Capital Partners, a Cleveland-based PE firm, raised $330m for its fifth fund. https://axios.link/3TCmLMY

🚑 Red Cell Partners, a McLean, Va.-based startup incubator focused on health care and national security, raised $91m for its first fund. https://axios.link/47mWvsZ

• Bain Capital promoted Keith Roux to managing director. https://axios.link/3RYENrk

• Harvest Partners promoted Shane McHugh to principal and Claire Simon to VP. www.harvestpartners.com

• Jack Howell and Luke Taylor were promoted from co-COOs to co-presidents of Stonepeak, with firm founder Michael Dorrell remaining CEO and chairman. www.stonepeak.com

• Ben Taylor rejoined Macquarie Asset Management as a managing director of private credit. He previously was with Audax Private Debt. www.macquarie.com

U.S. M&A activity fell 6% to $1.36 trillion in 2023, the lowest total since 2017, but still outpaced the global market's 17% decrease, according to LSEG data.

• The discrepancy was aided by a flurry of late December deals, including a $15 billion bid for U.S. Steel and a $14 billion takeover of schizophrenia drugmaker Karuna Therapeutics.
• Go deeper.