It's finally time to bury the canard that "markets hate uncertainty."

• The S&P 500 hit yet another record high on Monday, just 43 days out from what's still a coin-flip election.
• So did the Dow. The Nasdaq remains off its 2024 high from early July, but is still higher than at any point in any prior year. The Russell 2000 is up 25.5% over the past year, including 7% in the last six months.

State of play: The market doesn't have certainty over the next president, nor even what each candidate would do once in office.

• Kamala Harris has been agonizingly light on economic policy details, although may get a bit more granular during a speech tomorrow in Pennsylvania.
• Donald Trump has talked a ton about tax cuts and tariffs, but also has flip-flopped on everything from Bitcoin to TikTok to SALT deductions.
• And none of this even considers the uncertainty of congressional control.

Zoom in: The biggest forward-looking issue for dealmakers might be antitrust enforcement, and namely whether or not Lina Khan will continue to run the FTC.

• She was named to the post by Joe Biden and has been lauded by JD Vance, but neither Harris nor Trump has said anything publicly about her fate.
• But in the face of this crippling chanciness, new merger announcements are on the rise. Maybe because market uncertainty is a close cousin to market inefficiency, which is where returns are often made.

"Hold on," says rhetorical reader. "You're ignoring interest rates, and the certainty we now have after the recent Fed move."

• Sure. But we've had directional rate certainty for years. We knew when they were going up, and when they weren't being touched, and then spent most of 2024 awaiting cuts. It doesn't negate the broader policy perils.
• Maybe the better certainty argument would be that the economy performed pretty well under both Trump (pre-COVID) and Biden, regardless of their differences, although it's not an argument that gets made too often.

The bottom line: If anyone on Wall Street or Silicon Valley tells you they know what will happen next on economic policy, stop listening to that person. And if they bemoan "market uncertainty," remind them that they don't really care.

Margrethe Vestager, Europe's outgoing competition chief, stopped by the Axios offices yesterday for a wide-ranging conversation. Four notes:

1. She believes that "speed" is the biggest stumbling block to antitrust enforcement. For example, that it takes so long to define markets. The solution, she argues, is overarching rules like the Digital Markets Act.

2. Pharma is where she spent the most time outside of tech, including on "pay-to-delay" agreements between branded and generic drugmakers.

3. She only visited Silicon Valley once, spending time at both Apple and Google. She remarked that Apple's campus was very much like its products — gated off, stark, no art on the walls or plants in the halls. Google, meanwhile, was the opposite, reflecting "that it has to work within the world."

4. Her biggest regret: "I wish we had been bolder."

Liberty Broadband (Nasdaq: LBRDA) proposed an all-stock merger with Charter Communications (Nasdaq: CHTR), which it called a counterproposal to an approach by Charter.

Why it's the BFD: This is John Malone hoping that two negatives might equal a positive.

• Liberty and Charter shares are down 25% and 15%, respectively, so far this year — representing more than $11 billion in lost value.
• Most of that is tied to the impact of cord-cutting on Charter, in which Liberty holds around a 26% stake.

Flashback: Malone did something similar late last year, by restructuring the relationship between Liberty Media and SiriusXM.

The bottom line: Liberty Broadband's proposal requires approval of Liberty's non-Malone investors, and would see Charter assume or refinance Liberty's $3.9 billion in debt.

• M2P Fintech, an Indian provider API infrastructure to banks, raised $100m in Series C primary and secondary funding led by Helios Investment Partners with participation from Bank Muscat. axios.link/3TC7BXa

• Torq, a Portland, Ore.-based no-code automation platform for security teams, raised $70m in Series C funding led by Evolution Equity Partners. Other backers include Bessemer Venture Partners, Notable Capital, Greenfield Partners, and Strait Capital. axios.link/3XSEphb

🚑 Route 92 Medical, a San Mateo, Calif., maker of medical devices for neurovascular interventions, raised $50m in Series F extension funding. Novo Holdings was joined by insiders U.S. Venture Partners, Norwest Venture Partners, InnovaHealth Partners, and The Vertical Group. route92medical.com

⚡ Dandelion Energy, a Mt. Kisco, N.Y.-based geothermal energy startup, raised $40m in Series C funding, per Axios Pro. GV led, and was joined by Collaborative Fund, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, NGP, and Lennar. axios.link/4gABdOq

• Pyka, an Oakland developer of autonomous electric planes, raised $40m in Series B funding. Obvious Ventures led, and was joined by Piva Capital, Prelude Ventures, Metaplanet Holdings, and YC. axios.link/3TFIoLD

• VELA, a French developer of wind-powered cargo ships, raised €40m co-led by Crédit Mutuel Impact, 11th Hour Racing, and BPI. vela-transport.com

• Drift Protocol, a Solana exchange operator, raised $25m in Series B funding led by Multicoin Capital. axios.link/3MYpHPv

• Arcade, a generative AI marketplace, disclosed $17m in total funding from backers like Reid Hoffman, Offline Ventures, Sound Ventures, Karlie Kloss, Colin Kaepernick, founder of Lumi, and Christy Turlington Burns. arcade.ai

🚑 Bio-Sourcing, a Belgian platform for developing monoclonal antibodies, raised €10m from the EIC Accelerator. axios.link/4gMsKbg

• CarePay, a Dutch health insurance platform, raised €10m from firms like Reinsurance Group of America. axios.link/3TAeA2X

🚑 Letta, a startup focused on building "AI with memory," raised $10m in seed funding. Felicis led, and was joined by Sunflower Capital and Essence VC. axios.link/3zqm5CJ

• Icon, a provider of employee retirement plan solutions, raised $9.2m in seed funding led by TTV Capital, per Axios Pro. axios.link/3MYb2E4

• Mesa, a mortgage fintech, raised $9.2m in seed funding. Streamlined Ventures led, and was joined by Starting Line, Assurant Ventures, and Vera Equity. axios.link/4gCSre1

⚡ Ayrton Energy, a Canadian developer of developer of liquid organic hydrogen carrier tech, raised US$6.8m in seed funding. Clean Energy Ventures led, and was joined by BDC Capital, Antares Ventures, EPS Ventures, SOSV, the51, and UCeed Investment Funds. ayrtonenergy.com

• Darkbright Studios, maker of a life sim RPG game, raised $6m in seed funding led by Bitkraft Ventures. axios.link/4djE4sa

• GenLogs, an Arlington, Va., developer of freight-tracking tech, raised $6m in seed funding. Autotech Ventures and Steel Atlas co-led, and were joined by Venture53, TitletownTech, Plug and Play Ventures, BBQ Capital, ASC Ventures, and JHH Ventures. genlogs.io

• Reframe, a New York-based digital collaboration startup, raised $5m in seed funding. Primary Venture Partners and Eniac Ventures co-led, and were joined by Founder Collective and Operator Partners. axios.link/4gyOd7m

• Daily Crunch, a Nashville-based snack brand, raised $4m in Series A funding led by VC Launch Tennessee. axios.link/3XttKIo

• Pergamin, a Polish contract management automation startup, raised $3m from OnDean Forward. axios.link/3Br3xmf

⚡ Cariqa, a Berlin-based EV charging marketplace, raised €1m from Anthemis, Vento Ventures, Hatcher+, Techstars, Golden Egg Check, and Plug and Play. cariqa.com

• Blackstone and Vista Equity agreed to buy Smartsheet (NYSE: SMAR), a Bellevue, Wash., maker of workplace collaboration software, for $8.4b, or $56.50 per share.

• Vista Equity founder and CEO Robert Smith will be at Axios BFD on 10/22 in New York. Get your ticket.

• Auto-Wares, a portfolio company of Kinderhook Industries, acquired Moog Louisville, a Kentucky warehouse distributor of automotive parts and supplies. autowares.com

⚡ Octopus Energy Generation, a British infrastructure investment firm, acquired the 76% stake it didn't already hold in London-based solar and battery storage developer Exagen Group. axios.link/4dgTXQj

• PAX Group, a roofing and exterior services firm owned by New State Capital Partners, acquired Consolidated Coatings, a Baltimore provider of masonry, concrete restoration, and related services. paxservicesgroup.com

• Relation Insurance Services, a portfolio company of Aquiline Capital Partners, acquired the assets of Roseville, Calif.-based Whitney Oaks Insurance Services. relationinsurance.com

• Searchlight Capital Partners and Ares Management completed their £525m preferred equity investment in RSK Group, a British environmental consultancy. axios.link/3xkYqCv

• Sixth Street agreed to buy a minority stake in Herndon, Va.-based data center operator EdgeConneX from EQT. edgeconnex.com

• Waste Eliminator, an Atlanta-area waste solutions firm owned by Allied Industrial Partners, acquired Unlimited Disposal, a commercial waste management firm for Northeast Georgia. wasteeliminator.com

• ZEMA Global Data, a Canadian portfolio company of FTV Capital, agreed to buy Morningstar Commodity Data. zema.global

• Applied Nutrition, a British maker of sports nutrition products, is seeking to list in London by as early as next month, per Bloomberg. It reported £86m in revenue for the year ending July 31, while backers include JD Sports. axios.link/3MWJoqT

• Kioxia, a flash memory chipmaker that Bain Capital carved out of Toshiba in 2018, scrapped plans for a late October IPO in Tokyo over pricing concerns, per Reuters. It first tried a Tokyo IPO in 2020, but bailed due to the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. axios.link/3ZBQYyH

• EQT is seeking to sell a minority stake in Swedish enterprise software company IFS at a €15b valuation, per the FT. axios.link/3BgR7NR

⚽ Everton FC agreed to a takeover by Roma AS owner Dan Friedkin. axios.link/4ezNyk8

⚡ The FTC is expected to approve Chevron's (NYSE: CVX) planned $53b acquisition of Hess (NYSE: HES), per Reuters. But that won't solve the deal's other chokepoint, tied to Exxon and its partner in Guyana.

• Jupiter, an Indian fintech that's raised over $500m from firms like Tiger Global and QED Investors, is in talks to buy up to a 9.9% stake in SBM Bank India, per TechCrunch. axios.link/4dcrlYo

⚡ Macquarie Group will invest up to $1.73b for a minority stake in D.E. Shaw's renewable energy project unit. axios.link/4ezi2mn

• NewRiver REIT (LSE: NRRT) agreed to buy smaller U.K. retail REIT Capital & Regional (LSE: CAL) for around £147m. axios.link/3MXp8W7

🌎 A&G of Spain is raising €150m for a sustainable infrastructure PE fund. axios.link/4gDlQVM

• Composition Capital has been launched as a tech-focused growth equity firm by Kayne Anderson vets Nishita Cummings and Leon Chen. compositioncap.com

• HSBC launched a fund to help private equity firms borrow against their portfolios. axios.link/4eC2z5g

🌎 Monroe Capital is raising $1b to provide loans to auto supplies transitioning to EV tech, in partnership with the U.S. SBA. axios.link/47KSoJm

🌎 Pangea Ventures of Canada raised C$115m for its fourth fund to back sustainability-focused hard-tech startups. axios.link/4ee5Asr

• Texas Municipal Retirement System upped its private equity allocation to 20% from 13%. axios.link/3XzUJ4Z

• TPG is nearing a $1.8b final close on its debut secondaries fund, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3XTgBJX

• Andy Artz has launched Dark Arts VC as a personal investment firm seeking to "commercialize scientific research for public benefit." Artz previously was with Social Capital and, before that, Zynga. axios.link/3TDeOWW

• Giles Bethule joined Ares Management as VP of corp comms. He previously was with FGS Global. axios.link/3XB8OPM

• Terry Ing joined King Street Capital Management as a partner and head of U.S. research. He previously was with KKR. kingstreet.com

• Madison Dearborn Partners named Vahe Dombalagian as managing partner, succeeding co-CEOs Tom Souleles and Tim Sullivan (who each will serve as vice chairs). Paul Finnegan will continue to be chair. mdcp.com

• Allison Thacker is stepping down as chief investment officer for Rice University's endowment, after a 13-year run. axios.link/3MUCXV4

• Alexander Verbitsky joined The Raine Group as a Europe-focused managing director. He previously led corp dev at Tripledot Studios. axios.link/3XyGTQx