If you want to understand dealmaking in 2025, look at the conventional wisdom and then reverse it.

• The year began with great optimism, but the first quarter was quiet.
• The second quarter began with "Liberation Day," which was supposed to scare off any remaining animal spirits. Instead, it was followed by a megamerger surge, according to preliminary data released today by LSEG.

By the numbers: There was around $1.89 trillion of global M&A activity announced in the first half of 2025, which is a 30% increase over the first half of 2024.

• The year-over-year figure had been negative 11% in Q1.
• Deal volume also rebounded in the second quarter, but for the half remained down 11% YoY and is at a decade low.
• The discrepancy can be explained by a 74% year-over-year increase in the number of deals worth at least $10 billion and a 24% bump in the number of deals worth between $5 billion and $10 billion.
• Private equity activity followed a similar trend, with first-half dollars up 24.2% but deal numbers down 22%.

Zoom in: The U.S. trailed the global M&A market with $821 billion in activity, up 10.8%, with a 15.2% decline in the number of deals.

• The year's largest deal announced so far was Charter Communications' $34.5 billion purchase of Cox Communications, followed by the proposed privatization of Japan's Toyota Industries.
• Global investment banking league tables remained the same year-over-year, with Goldman Sachs leading. It was followed by Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Citigroup.

What they're saying: "Usually there's a backlog of financial sponsor deals that come at the end of the quarter, which we didn't really see, but the real drag from a volume perspective is in middle-market and lower-end deals," explains Matthew Toole, director of deals intelligence for LSEG Data & Analytics.

• "Dealmaking is certainly a sector-by-sector story right now," he adds, pointing out double-digit dollar declines for health care and financials and double-digit dollar increases for media and industrials. Plus, a deal number bump for real estate.

The intrigue: LSEG includes "venture capital" investments of at least $1 billion in its M&A totals, which never really mattered until the recent spate of mega-rounds for OpenAI and its ilk.

Kalshi, a New York-based predictions market, raised $185 million in Series C funding led by Paradigm at a $2 billion valuation.

Why it's the BFD: There's something appropriate about a crypto-focused firm like Paradigm leading this round, as Kalshi is part of a burgeoning predictions industry that many have written off as niche at best and illicit at worst.

Other investors include Multicoin Capital, Sequoia Capital, Neo, and Citadel Securities CEO Peng Zhao.

Elsewhere: Kalshi rival Polymarket reportedly is nearing its own unicorn-level investment, led by Founders Fund, even though U.S. residents can't legally use the platform.

• This comes seven months after the FBI raided the apartment of Polymarket's CEO. No charges have been filed.

The bottom line: "This week's NYC Democratic mayoral race showed how fast and responsive prediction markets can be — though their accuracy in predicting a winner still depends on the quality of the info traders are working with, which isn't always the same across elections." — Nathan Bomey, Axios

Editor's note: This story was corrected to remove a reference to blockchain technology.

• Raphe mPhibr, an Indian drone maker, raised $100m in Series B funding led by General Catalyst. axios.link/44iLQjz

• Centific, a Seattle-based AI data foundry, raised $60m in Series A funding led by Granite Asia. axios.link/3ZNsD8y

• Zama, a French cryptography startup, raised $57m in Series B funding led by Pantera Capital and Blockchange Ventures at a valuation north of $1b. axios.link/4l4mQnE

🚑 Mandolin, an AI automation platform for specialty drug access, raised $40m from Greylock, SignalFire, SV Angel, and Maverick. axios.link/4nhAo0f

• Eventual, an SF-based AI data platform, raised $20m in Series A funding. Felicis led, joined by M12 Ventures, Citi, and insider CRV. eventual.ai

• DataBahn, a Dallas-based data pipeline platform, raised $17m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Forgepoint Capital led, joined by S3 Ventures and insider GTM Capital. axios.link/4lpJqGW

• AllSpice, an SF-based collaboration platform for electronics teams, raised $15m in Series A funding. Rethink Impact led, joined by L'attidude Ventures, GingerBread Capital, and DNX Ventures. axios.link/46gpYrH

• Clarify, a Seattle-based autonomous CRM, raised $15m in Series A funding. USVP and Gradient led, joined by Madrona, Recall, Ascend, Essence, New Normal Fund, and Fika. axios.link/44HJv2b

⚡ Ignis Energy, a Houston-based geothermal startup, raised $13.6m in Series A funding from Nabors Industries, The Twynam Group, and Geolog. ignisenergy.com

• Lidrotec, a German developer of laser systems for chip-cutting, raised $13.5m in Series A extension funding. Lam Capital and Goose Capital led, joined by Zeiss Ventures, Gründerfonds Ruhr, and NRW Bank. axios.link/4kZIoS9

• Sibill, an Italian fintech focused on financial and administrative management for SMEs, raised €12m in Series A funding. Creandum, led, joined by Keen Venture Partners. axios.link/4k9yrjI

🌎 Climatiq, a German provider of carbon intelligence infrastructure, raised €10m in Series A funding. Alstin Capital led, joined by Singular and Cherry Ventures. axios.link/4kdxqYf

• Qunnect, a Brooklyn-based quantum networking startup, raised $10m in Series A extension funding led by Airbus Ventures, with participation from Cisco Investments and Quantonation. axios.link/44zoSWM

🚑 Juniper Genomics, a Toronto-based IVF tech startup, raised US$4.6m in seed funding. Company Ventures led, joined by Innospark Ventures, MBX Capital, Amboy Street Ventures, Dria Ventures, and Blue Collective. axios.link/4ltDE7l

🐮 Antler Bio, an Irish gene expression startup focused on boosting dairy productivity, raised $4.3m. First Thirty Ventures led, joined by Endgame Capital and Generation-RE. axios.link/44sevDc

• Waypoint AI, a Berkeley, Calif.-based customer support startup focused on product defects, raised $3.1m in pre-seed funding. 42Cap and Dreamcraft Ventures led, joined by Berkeley SkyDeck Fund and Lumiere AI Ventures. mywaypoint.ai

• SoftBank invested in Sceye, a Moriarty, N.M.-based developer of high-altitude aerial systems. axios.link/44cXnT3

• Advantage Partners agreed to buy a stake in Maftec, a Japanese provider of ultra-high temperature heat insulation, from Apollo. axios.link/3TG9Zf5

• Bow River Capital acquired Topia, a San Mateo, Calif.-based distributed workforce compliance company. topia.com

• Foundation Source, a philanthropic solutions provider owned by GTCR, acquired Pacific Foundation Services, an SF-based foundation management organization. foundationsource.com

⚡ Greenbelt Capital Partners agreed to buy British power equipment supplier Brush Group from One Equity Partners, per the WSJ. axios.link/44jJQb4

• Sound Growth Partners recapitalized Bars, a Lakewood, Colo.-based provider of in-store ID check compliance services. barsprogram.com

• STG agreed to acquire Yodlee, a Raleigh-based finance data platform, from Bain Capital portfolio company Envestnet. axios.link/3TMZmqN

• Jefferson Capital, a Minneapolis-based consumer debt collector owned by J.C. Flowers, raised $150m in its IPO. It priced at the low end of its $15-$17 range and will list on the Nasdaq (JCAP). axios.link/44QmrzM

• Oxley Bridge Acquisition, a consumer and tech SPAC led by Jonathan Lin (L2 Capital), raised $220m in its IPO. axios.link/4kvIl0g

• Pine Labs, an Indian payments firm, filed for an India IPO. The company has raised over $1b in private funding from backers like Peak XV Partners, Mastercard, and Advent International. axios.link/4kfqQ3p

• Reconova, a Chinese facial recognition startup, is prepping a Hong Kong IPO, per Bloomberg. It's raised funding from Intel Capital, China Merchants Capital, Citic Capital, Shanghai Hongyu Investment, and SAIF Partners. axios.link/4k8e9Hi

• Visma, a Norwegian enterprise software company owned by Hg, picked London for its IPO, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4kaq1J4

• EQT agreed to sell Pioneer, a Japanese provider of in-car audio and other media tech, to CarUX for $1.1b. axios.link/4eifoT0

• Wolters Kluwer Legal & Regulatory acquired Brightflag, an Irish provider of legal spend and matter management software, for €425m in cash, from backers like One Peak, Tribal.vc and Sands Capital. brightflag.com

🚑 Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) sold the British remote care management platform Current Health to Current co-founder Chris McGhee, four years after its acquisition. axios.link/45Av4Pn

• U.S. antitrust regulators signed off on Mars' proposed $35.9b takeover of snackmaker Kellanova (NYSE: K), just days after European Union antitrust regulators opened an investigation into the deal. axios.link/3HXwVE9

🌎 Ambienta of Italy raised €500m for a small-cap fund focused on sustainability. ambientasgr.com

• Galaxy Ventures, the VC unit of crypto firm Galaxy Digital (NYSE: GLXY), raised $175m for its debut fund. axios.link/442VQPl

• PAG, an Asia-focused buyout firm, raised $432m for a first close on its debut yuan-denominated fund, per Reuters. axios.link/4kaKvS4

🚑 Santé Ventures is raising $300m for its fifth fund, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4414rly

• Sorenson Capital of Utah raised $150m for its third VC fund, per Fortune. axios.link/3TalH1m

• Vista Equity Partners raised a $5.6b single-asset continuation fund for Cloud Software Group, owner of Citrix and Tibco, per Bloomberg. Around half of it came from LPs, while the remainder came from two of Vista's flagship buyout funds. axios.link/44yvHI9

• Jeddy Lee joined Z Capital Group as a managing director and head of credit. He previously was with Bayside Capital. zcg.com

Shell yesterday came out swinging against a WSJ report that it's in early talks to acquire BP, following a similar Bloomberg report in early May, saying:

"Shell wishes to clarify that it has not been actively considering making an offer for BP and confirms it has not made an approach to, and no talks have taken place with, BP with regards to a possible offer."

Why it matters: This sort of categorial denial means that Shell can't bid on BP for the next six months, due to U.K. takeover rules.

Market reax: BP shares spiked 8.5% yesterday, before later retreating.