Earlier this week I sat down in New York City with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, founders of prediction market juggernaut Kalshi, for the latest episode of "The Axios Show."

• It was a wide-ranging conversation, which you can watch here.

Their big picture message was that they're playing by the rules and benefiting society, even if a growing number of politicians and anti-gambling activists disagree.

• They noted that Kalshi took around $13 billion of bets last month, mostly on sports, and didn't dispute reports that the company will be valued at $22 billion in a new funding round.

Some takeaways, although I do believe the full interview is worthy of your time:

Insider trading: Kalshi only has a couple dozen employees on its "surveillance team," but the founders insist that it's able to police the platform. AI and third-party lists enable the process.

• They acknowledge that their regulator, the CFTC, has yet to bring a case of insider trading on a prediction market, but believe it is coming.

Political influence: Kalshi hired Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor shortly after his father's inauguration, but insist they've never asked him to make an ask of regulators. He's since invested in Kalshi rival Polymarket.

• The founders did not directly respond to a question about whether the Trump family has a financial interest in prediction markets being legal and successful.
• It's also worth noting that all Kalshi contracts must be approved by the CFTC before appearing on the platform, with the company suing its regulator in 2023 to allow elections.

Speaking of Polymarket: Mansour downplayed talk of a personal animus toward Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan, but both he and Lara made repeated efforts to distinguish Kalshi from "unregulated" prediction markets (i.e., Polymarket).

Biz model: They said that 70% of their volume last month was sports, down from the Super Bowl month of February.

• I kind of got the sense that they'd be fine philosophically without sports — they're MIT markets nerds at heart — but know that it's essential for user engagement, revenue, and liquidity to float less popular markets.

Legal battles: Just hours before our interview began, Kalshi won a federal appeals court case that let it continue to operate in New Jersey. Earlier today, it lost a legal round in Arizona.

• There are dual realities here. First, the question of who regulates Kalshi — the CFTC or the states — is likely to end up in the Supreme Court.
• Second, a Kalshi win at SCOTUS would means any new rules would need to come from Congress — with Kalshi's own markets predicting that Democrats will take the House (it has the Senate as a toss-up). It is indeed possible that Congress could pass some sort of anti-prediction markets carveouts, much like they've stopped everyone from trading onion futures, but Kalshi is actively working both sides of the aisle.

Addiction: This is where the political pressure could build, far beyond worries about state-level loopholes, and Kalshi's founders may need better answers than that they allow users to set limits on themselves.

• Yes, it's true that Kalshi isn't betting against its users. But that doesn't necessarily mean that their users can't lose as much as they do with sportsbook apps — or that it doesn't create a new cohort of betting addicts who don't enjoy sports. Full interview here.

Seven & i Holdings (Tokyo: 3382), owner of 7-Eleven convenience stores, is delaying an IPO of its North American unit from this year until April 2027 "at the earliest."

Why it's the BFD: It's a reminder that the macro matters.

• Higher gas prices are cutting down on fuel consumption, which also depresses walk-in retail business.
• Moreover, persistent inflation is hammering at direct retail traffic, as consumers seek out discounted food and sundries.
• And that doesn't even account for an IPO market that was sluggish even before the Iran war.

Zoom out: The delay is a big setback for turnaround plans at Seven & i, which were put in place last year after the collapse of both a management buyout bid and $46 billion takeover talks with Circle K owner Alimentation Couche-Tard.

The bottom line: "Seven & i shares are trading below the level prior to Couche-Tard walking away, as shareholders remain unconvinced that the standalone strategy is paying off and the retail environment sours." — Harry Dempsey, FT

• SiFive, an SF-based developer of RISC-V processors for data centers, raised $400m in Series G funding at a $3.65b post-money valuation. Atreides Management led, joined by Apollo Global Management, Nvidia, Point72 Turion, T. Rowe Price and insiders Prosperity7 Ventures and Sutter Hill Ventures. axios.link/3O85CKQ

• AfterQuery, an SF-based applied data solutions research lab, raised $30m in Series A funding at a $300m valuation. Altos Ventures led, joined by The Raine Group and insiders YC and BoxGroup. axios.link/4eaZprW

• Q-Factor, an Israeli quantum computing startup, raised $24m in seed funding. NFX and TPY Capital led, joined by Intel Capital, Korea Investment Partners, and Deep33. axios.link/4slJL0g

• Pipe, a provider of embedded capital products for small businesses, raised $16m led by Fin Capital and MaC Venture Capital, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4spMmXk

• Rork, which helps developers build mobile apps using AI, raised $15m in seed funding, per Axios Pro. Left Lane Capital led, joined by Peak XV, True Ventures, Goodwater, and a16z. axios.link/4sYwnAh

• Haast, an NYC-based enterprise compliance platform, raised $12m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Peak XV Partners led, joined by DST Global Partners, Airtree, Aura Ventures, and Black Sheep Capital. axios.link/4eaYOqe

• Treon, a Finnish provider of predictive maintenance cloud solutions, raised €6.8m in Series A extension funding from ACME Capital. axios.link/4vqyYVB

• Handhold, an Estonian developer of AI agents for sales, raised €3m in seed funding. Entourage Capital led, joined by Inovia Capital and e2vc. axios.link/3OcDF4j

⚡ Plume, a developer of geospatial AI for renewable energies, raised €3.3m. AENU led, joined by YC, Kima Ventures, Raise Phiture, Better Angle, and Collab Fund. axios.link/41TNebF

🌎 Satellites on Fire, an Argentinian wildfire detection startup, raised $2.7m in seed funding. Dalus Capital led, joined by Draper Associates, VitaminºC, and Draper Cygnus VC. axios.link/4sZwFqD

• Aero Accessories, an aerospace repair firm owned by ATL Partners, acquired Miami-based New Generation Aerospace and Tri-County Aerospace. axios.link/4cc6Psh

🌎 Ara Partners paid $500m to acquire Sedron Technologies, which upcycles waste into drinking water and fertilizer, per Axios Pro. Sedron backers had included Generate Capital. axios.link/4tGbp9E

• Ares Management agreed to buy Whitestone REIT (NYSE: WSR) for around $1.7b, or $19 per share (12% premium to yesterday's close). axios.link/4snQOWw

• ATC Group, an AE Industrial Partners portfolio company, acquired PAS MRO, a Bristow, Okla.-based provider of bearing repair services. axios.link/4skn6BG

🚑 Avista Healthcare Partners acquired Bentec Medical, a Woodland, Calif.-based medical device components maker, from Greyrock Capital Group and Hermitage Equity Partners. axios.link/4cmMWz8

• Bregal Sagemount invested in Redgate Software, a U.K. platform for database DevOps and lifecycle management. axios.link/4dBAQUS

• CenterGate Capital invested in Spartaco Tool Group, a Clover, S.C.-based maker of professional-grade tools. axios.link/4vjENUE

• General Atlantic agreed to buy San Diego-based home care company Team Services from Alpine Investors for around $3b (including debt), per Bloomberg. axios.link/3PZVAfc

🚑 GTCR completed its €4.1b buyout of Prague-based generic drugmaker Zentiva from Advent International. axios.link/3VI6SEn

🚑 Havencrest acquired OFFOR Health, a Worthington, Ohio-based provider of anesthesia services for pediatric dental procedures. axios.link/4c0uahT

⚽ Serie ‌A, an Italian pro soccer league, is weighing the sale of a minority stake in its international media rights to private equity, per Reuters. axios.link/4mkv9Nl

• Westnet, an Armory Capital portfolio company, acquired Low Voltage Installations, a Golden, Colo.-based provider of fire station alerting systems. axios.link/4slRono

🚑 Avalyn Pharma, a Boston-based developer of inhaled therapies for rare respiratory diseases, filed for a $100m IPO. The Phase 2 company plans to list on the Nasdaq (AVLN) and raised $386m from firms like F-Prime, Eventide, Norwest Venture Partners, Novo Holdings, Perceptive Advisors, S.R. One, Vida Ventures, and Wellington. axios.link/4tBIseO

• Gusto, valued by VCs at over $9b, agreed to acquire SF-based compliance startup Mosey, per Axios Pro. Mosey had raised $21m from Canaan Partners, Realm Capital Ventures, Evolution, PeopleTech Partners, Charge Ventures, Catalyze Advisors, and SemperVirens VC. axios.link/4ca7smb

• Nordic Capital seeking to sell Danish bakery chain Ole & Steen, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4cD9VpN

🚑 TPG picked bankers for a dual exit process on Asia OneHealthcare, a Malaysian hospital operator, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4cjFbKb

• Miotal, an asset‑backed metals platform, agreed to merge with Fifth Era Acquisition Corp I (Nasdaq: FERA), a SPAC formed by Fifth Era and Blockchain Coinvestors. axios.link/4tDYmp9

• Onex Partners raised $1.6b for a multi-asset CV, backed by such investors as Neuberger, GIC, Apollo S3, and StepStone. axios.link/4vaa8ZM

• Rezolve AI (Nasdaq: RZLV) is making a hostile takeover bid for Commerce.com (Nasdaq: CMRC) after negotiations failed. axios.link/4sTTH2c

• US Elemental, a lithium developer, agreed to a reverse merger with Constellation Acquisition Corp. I, a SPAC led by former Arconic and Alcoa CEO Klaus Kleinfeld, at a $573m valuation. axios.link/4tteUQk

• 154 Partners, a PE firm focused on founder and family-led businesses in sectors like sports and live events, raised $400m for its debut fund. It was cofounded by Blackstone Tactical Opportunities vets Isaac Harrouche and Mike Berlin, with David Blitzer is a backer and on the firm's investment committee. axios.link/4tw88JD

• Collide Capital, an NYC-based early-stage firm, raised $95m for its second fund. collidecap.com

• Court Square Capital Partners raised $3.8b for its fifth flagship fund. courtsquare.com

• Mercer, a unit of Marsh & McLennan, raised over $3.8b for its eighth private assets fund. axios.link/4srTXUZ

• Gigascale Capital promoted Evaline Tsai to partner. axios.link/4txi7hT

• Andrew Gillick joined Stonepeak as director of research. He previously was with Enverus. axios.link/4t31VFr

🚑 Randy Hyun, former president of Evernorth Health System Services, joined Frazier Healthcare Partners as an executive-in-residence. axios.link/48CaoqK

• Dave Kasouf joined Crowd Street as chief private markets officer. He previously was with First Citizens Wealth and, before that, SVB. axios.link/47M8aF1

🌎 Voyager Ventures promoted Nare Janvelyan to principal. axios.link/48yU366

• Tonje Ørnholt joined London-based Ada Ventures as a venture partner in Norway, where the firm also launched a scout program. She previously was with Oslo Business Region. axios.link/4c28Dpe

Untangling the largest disruption in oil market history won't happen quickly or easily — and that means continued high prices and scarcity in major importing countries, Axios' energy reporter Ben Geman writes.

• WTI hovered around $100 per barrel earlier this morning, after falling sharply yesterday.