Greetings from the home office, after an amazing day with hundreds of you at our fourth annual Axios BFD summit in New York City.

• I haven't yet had enough downtime for big-picture reflection (isn't it the weekend yet?), but here are some quick headlines from each conversation:

Roelof Botha, Sequoia Capital

• Sequoia has backed such giants as Apple and Google, but when asked what company in its current portfolio might become even more valuable, he didn't say OpenAI. Instead, he picked SpaceX.
• Botha also said that the Trump administration has been tougher on M&A than he expected, and flatly denied speculation that the controversy over partner Shaun Maguire's tweets were a contributing factor in his recent decision to step down as Sequoia steward.

Emilie Choi: Coinbase

• She believes that many other companies will follow Coinbase's recent reincorporation from Delaware to Texas (or other states), adding that the decision was sparked by a Delaware judge's ruling on Elon Musk's pay package at Tesla.
• She also acknowledged that the White House ballroom donation was to maintain good relations with Trump, and said that the crypto industry needs market structure legislation to get done before the political winds may shift.

Marc Lipschultz, Blue Owl Capital

• Lipschultz said that the only risk on data center deals — such as its recent $27 billion joint venture with Meta — is counterparty, rather than tech, energy, or real estate.
• He also argued hard against claims that private capital has looser covenants than does syndicated debt, insisting that the opposite is true, and clearly disagreeing with Jamie Dimon's cockroach hunt comments.
• We also addressed the merger of two Blue Owl private credit funds, including a redemption halt. That deal was just called off.

Gerry Cardinale, RedBird Capital Partners

• He's not worried about the impact of sports gambling scandals on the value of pro sports teams, including ones that RedBird owns (e.g., AC Milan) or in which he has minority stakes (e.g., Boston Red Sox). He believes they will prove to be "one-offs," and that the ran engagement benefits outweigh the on-field integrity risks.
• Cardinale also argued that Paramount's settlement with President Trump wasn't a prerequisite for closing the Skydance merger, in which RedBird participated. He also doesn't believe that AI will replace Hollywood content creators, although it will supplement their efforts and cut costs in other ways.

Clem Delangue, Hugging Face

• Shots fired: "I think the LLM bubble might be bursting next year."
• He also said that Hugging Face has begun seeing more Chinese models get downloaded than American models, and that many of them use Chinese hardware (i.e., Huawei > Nvidia).

Max Levchin, Affirm

• Levchin said that government employees held back on certain purchases as the shutdown progressed, but says that he's not seen any broader U.S. consumer pullback. He cautioned, however, that there is some self-selection in Affirm's user base.
• He also was a bit circumspect about the rise of agentic commerce, or at least the brave new world in which agents buy items without direct consumer input. Well, until we all have Neurolink-type devices installed.

Emma Grede, Good American

• Grede said that Good American isn't seeing major shifts in size sales, despite the GLP-1 boom, and said that Skims will use most of its recent funding to open more physical retail stores.
• She also stood by viral comments that people must be willing to put in extra work, including night and weekend shifts, to be successful. The critiques, Grede argued, would not have come were she a male entrepreneur.

Jesse Cohn, Elliott Investment Management

• He argued that the shift from active to passive investing in public equities isn't just antithetical to Elliott's DNA, but is unhealthy for the market and broader economy.
• Cohn also said that he's adversarial than they once were, and rejected some critiques that Elliott's scale has become a drag on performance (without directly addressing performance).

Shayne Coplan, Polymarket

• He said that Polymarket's U.S. return will be mobile-first, with an app that's currently in beta testing, and added: "Eventually we're going to take a cut of trading."
• Coplan also slammed at online sportsbooks, calling them a "scam," and said that legal questions about prediction markets likely will be settled by the Supreme Court "at some point."

The full replay is here, and we'll get individual session videos up shortly.

A U.S. federal judge yesterday ruled that Meta didn't break antitrust laws by purchasing Instagram or WhatsApp, ending a case brought by the FTC during President Trump's first term.

Why it's the BFD: Meta won't be forced to sell or spin off either asset.

The bottom line: Big Tech critics for years have identified Meta's purchases of Instagram and (to a lesser extent) WhatsApp as original antitrust sins from the Obama administration — deals that should have been challenged but weren't.

• That argument just lost. And Mark Zuckerberg may be more emboldened to pursue other transformational acquisitions.

• Lambda, an SF-based cloud infrastructure provider, raised over $1.5b in Series E funding. TWG Global led, joined by US Innovative Technology Fund and unnamed insiders. axios.link/4oKcBXd

• Kraken, a Cheyenne, Wyo.-based crypto exchange, raised $800m at a $20b valuation. Citadel Securities led with a $200m investment, joined by Jane Street, HSG, Oppenheimer Alternative Investment Management, and Tribe Capital. axios.link/4oOhgrb

🎵 Suno, an AI music platform, raised $250m at a $2.45b valuation. Menlo Ventures led, joined by Hallwood Media, Lightspeed, Matrix and NVentures. axios.link/48j0lap

• RapidSOS, an NYC-based emergency response data platform, raised $100m at a valuation north of $1b led by Apax. axios.link/3Kd0YsR

🚀 Ursa Major Technologies, a Berthound, Colo., rocket engine startup, raised $100m at a $600m valuation. Eclipse led, joined by Woodline Partners, Principia Growth, XN and Alsop Louie Partners. It also secured $50m in debt. axios.link/3LW75lP

• Federato, an SF-based provider of insurance workflow software, raised $100m in Series D funding. Goldman Sachs Alternatives led, joined by insiders Emergence Capital, Caffeinated Capital, StepStone Group, and Pear VC. axios.link/4a08TnQ

⚡️ Nanoramic, a Boston-based battery startup, raised $54m from PEP Capital, Samsung Ventures, Top Material, General Motors Ventures, Catalus Capital, Itochu Corp., Fortistar Capital, and WindSail Capital Group. axios.link/47OPHrS

• Numeric, an SF-based accounting automation startup, raised $51m in Series B funding, per Axios Pro. IVP led, joined by Menlo Ventures, Founders Fund, Alkeon, 8VC, Socii Capital, Access Industries, Friends & Family Capital, and Long Journey Ventures. axios.link/4i8FbPH

• Apono, an NYC-based cloud identity-security startup, raised $34m in Series B funding. U.S. Venture Partners led, joined by Swisscom Ventures, Vertex Ventures, and 33N Ventures. axios.link/4r831Pq

• TMT ID, a Romanian mobile data and identity company, raised €34m from BGF. axios.link/4a6jxJE

🚑 Avanzanite Bioscience, a Dutch rare diseases biotech, raised €32m in Series A funding led by MVM Partners. axios.link/3XBcyRD

• Deblock, a French crypto banking startup, raised €30m in Series A funding. Speedinvest led, joined by CommerzVentures and Latitude. axios.link/3XABUiq

• Method Security, a dual-use cybersecurity company, raised $26m in seed and Series A funding, per Axios. Backers include a16z, General Catalyst, Blackstone, Crossbeam Venture Partners, Forward Deployed Venture Capital, and Pax Ventures. axios.link/3X0AopP

• Bedrock Data, a Menlo Park, Calif.-based data management platform, raised $25m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Greylock led, joined by Mangusta Capital, Mantis VC, and Pier 88 Investment Partners. axios.link/4o2g5Da

🚑 VahatiCor, a Santa Clara, Calif.-based cardiac medtech, raised $23m in Series B funding. S3 Ventures led, joined by Intuitive Ventures. axios.link/489ntqI

🌎 Flocean, a Norwegian underwater desalination startup, raised $22.5m in Series A funding from Xylem, Burnt Island Ventures, Freebird Capital, Katapult Ocean, Nysnø Climate Investments, Ari Emanuel, Orion, Rypples, and Water Unite Impact Fund. axios.link/486eExQ

• Modern Life, a provider of AI tools for financial advisors to offer life insurance, raised $20m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Thrive Capital led, joined by New York Life Ventures, Northwestern Mutual, and Allegis. axios.link/49X6ZnV

• Tulu, a provider of on-demand access to appliances and entertainment devices for apartment building tenants, raised $17m in Series A extension funding from GreenSoil PropTech Ventures, per Axios Pro. axios.link/484LQWy

• Automat, a San Jose, Calif.-based enterprise workflow automation startup, raised a $15.5m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Felicis led, joined by Initialized, Khosla Ventures, and YC. axios.link/4oNhEGm

• Hummink, a French precision manufacturing startup, raised €15m from Elaia Partners, Sensinnovat, Beeyond, the French Tech Seed fund, Cap Horn and KBC Focus Fund, and the European Innovation Council Fund. axios.link/4r6qCjB

🚑 WellBeam, a health-care interoperability startup, raised $10m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Wittington Ventures led, joined by F-Prime, Advocate Health and Oncology Ventures. axios.link/3Xz7VHM

🚑 FamilyWell Health, a Boston-based women's mental health company, raised $8m in Series A funding. New Markets Venture Partners led, joined by .406 Ventures, GreyMatter Capital, The Alix Foundation, The Donna Fund, and The Lee Foundation. axios.link/48lVp4z

🚑 Chromologics, a Danish developer of fermentation-based natural colors, raised €7m from Novo, EIFO, Döhler Ventures, Collateral Good Ventures, and Synergetic. axios.link/3X3HYQA

• Voltrac, a Spanish agricultural robotics startup, raised €7m in seed funding. Extantia led, joined by FoodLabs, Antler, PUSH, and Prototype Capital. axios.link/485tEMw

🚑 Emm, a British developer of smart menstrual cups, raised 6.8m led by Lunar Ventures. axios.link/4piCi0U

⚡ Moment Energy, a Canadian second-life battery developer, raised C$5m from TD Innovation Partners. axios.link/485CxWa

• Barker, an asset-backed lending fintech, raised $3.5m led by Walkabout VC. axios.link/44k9nl1

• Orion, a Denver-based risk intelligence startup, raised $3.5m led by Dynamo Ventures, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4rdshUM

🚑 Thrivory, an NYC-based provider of claims settlement software, raised $3.5m from Redesign Health. axios.link/4plDMYl

• Big Rentals, an LA-based equipment rental platform, raised $2.8m in seed funding. Snak Venture Partners led, joined by Ironspring Ventures, Forum Ventures, Launch Fund, and NuFund Venture Group. axios.link/3XHBMxD

• Poppy, a Charlottesville, Va.-based wedding flowers platform, raised $2.7m in Series A funding. Michigan Capital Network led, joined by Virginia Venture Partners, Wakestream Ventures, IDEA Fund Partners, and Front Porch Ventures. axios.link/4oGtfqK

• Bridgepoint acquired a majority stake in Zuto, a U.K. car financing marketplace. axios.link/4i6lWGx

• Frontenac Co. acquired Beckway Consulting, an NYC-based consultancy focused on financial sponsors. axios.link/3X403xL

• GTCR agreed to acquire Fiduciary Trust Co., a Boston-based private wealth manager and trust company. axios.link/49XcS4v

• H.I.G. Capital invested in GT Independence, a provider of long-term home care and support solutions for Medicaid participants. axios.link/3LWp0sB

🚑 Nordic Capital acquired Evosep, a Danish provider of sample preparation and separation solutions. axios.link/4r9dlH6

⚡️ Reliable Energy Partners, a portfolio company of Soundcore Capital Partners, acquired Nashville Propane Exchange, a La Vergne, Tenn.-based propane distributor. axios.link/4oODKIP

⚡️ Tiger Infrastructure Partners invested in ELM Utility Services, a Peoria, Ill.-based outsourced public utility locating services company. axios.link/4r6rvZt

• Churchill Capital XI, a SPAC led by Michael Klein, filed for a $300m IPO. axios.link/4oOzXew

• D. Boral Acquisition I, a SPAC led by D. Boral Capital execs, filed for a $250m IPO. axios.link/49t7JBe

• Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD) is in talks to buy alcoholic beverage maker BeatBox for around $700m, per the WSJ. Austin, Texas-based BeatBox has raised around $23m in VC funding from Concentric Equity Partners, Morrison Seger, and ICBM Venture Capital. axios.link/4oOd1fr

🚑 Ardian hired Morgan Stanley and Macquarie to find a buyer for GBA Group, a German lab services company that could fetch €1.5b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/47NRFsn

• Capiton hired UBS to find a buyer for Raith, a German nanotech firm that could fetch around €1b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4i315Ug

• Adobe (Nasdaq: ADBE) agreed to buy Boston-based marketing SaaS Semrush (Nasdaq: SEMR) for $1.9b. axios.link/4o2y8t2

• GlobalFoundries (Nasdaq: GFS) acquired Advanced Micro Foundry, a Singaporean silicon photonics foundry. axios.link/43DnW33

• Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste of Mexico will pay $2.16b for the airport portfolio of Brazil's Motiva. axios.link/485vmgU

• DigitalBridge raised $7.2b for its third digital infrastructure fund, plus $4.5 in coinvestment commitments. axios.link/4p7wmIJ

Small businesses employees are bearing the brunt of economic uncertainty, Axios' Emily Peck reports.

Why it matters: Small companies employ nearly half of U.S. workers, even though they don't often generate national news.

Zoom in: Small businesses are getting hit harder by tariffs, given their relative lack of capital cushion, and also have less capacity to adopt AI.