Dealmaker animal spirits in 2025 might not include ... well, spirits.

The big picture: Three major developments could tamp down on new alcohol and beer company deals, or at least on their valuations.

1. U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy last week called on Congress to add warning labels to alcoholic beverages, similar to what's required for cigarettes, after numerous studies linked alcohol consumption with cancer. The headlines alone are headwinds, even if the warning labels aren't added.
2. GLP-1 use is surging, with the number of U.S. prescriptions rising around 10% last year. These drugs have been found to decrease alcohol consumption.
3. Teenagers are drinking much less than in the past, which could signal an erosion of future adult consumption. A recent study found that 42% of 12th graders used alcohol within the past year, which is down from 75% in the same survey from 1997.

Zoom in: All of this comes as U.S. booze deal activity already seems to have stagnated, whether that be for M&A, private equity, or venture capital.

• PitchBook data shows that dollar volume for all three peaked in 2021, but then declined sharply and haven't really recovered.

The bottom line: It's feeling like Dry January will get extended this year.

Smithfield Foods, the largest U.S. pork producer, filed for an IPO that would see it split off from Hong Kong-listed WH Group.

Why it's the BFD: This sets up to be the year's first giant IPO, with talk that it could raise around $1 billion.

Zoom in: Virginia-based Smithfield plans to list on the Nasdaq (SFD), and reports $581 million of net income on $10.2 billion of sales for the first three quarters of 2024.

• WH Group (HK: 288) acquired Smithfield for $4.7 billion in 2013. At the time, it was the largest takeover of a U.S. company by a Chinese company, per Bloomberg.

The bottom line: Smithfield spent 14 years as a public company before the WH takeover, during which time investors got used to profit volatility tied to livestock feed costs — which fell in 2024 but now are facing an upswing in corn prices.

🚑 Fire1, an Irish maker of medical device software, raised $120m. Polaris Partners and Elevage Medical Technologies co-led, and were joined by Sands Capital, Longitude Capital and insiders Andera Partners, Gilde Healthcare, Gimv, the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund, Lightstone Ventures, Medtronic, NEA, Novo Holdings and Seventure Partners. axios.link/4fIyWix

🚑 XyloCor Therapeutics, a King of Prussia, Pa., developer of gene therapies for cardiovascular disease, raised $67.5m in Series B funding. Jeito Capital led, and was joined by insiders EQT, Fountain Healthcare Partners, and Lumira Ventures. axios.link/3BZ8Jyr

🌎 Phoenix Tailings, a Burlington, Mass., developer of rare earths from mining waste, raised $43.8m in Series B funding from BMW i Ventures, Yamaha, Envisioning Partners, MPower, and Escape Velocity. axios.link/4fLFY6b

🚑 Deciphex, an Irish digital pathology startup, raised €31m in Series C funding. Molten Ventures led, and was joined by ACT Venture Capital, Seroba, Charles River Labs, IRRUS Investments, HBAN Medtech Syndicate, and Nextsteps Capital. axios.link/42aB7Z0

🚑 Torch Dental, a New York-based dental supply startup, raised $17m, per Axios Pro. Amex Ventures and Raga Partners co-led, and were joined by Alumni Ventures, Parameter Ventures and insiders Bessemer Venture Partners and Health Velocity Capital. axios.link/3PquCK5

🌎 Fermata, an Israeli computer vision startup that detects diseases and pests in plants, raised $10m in Series A funding from Raw Ventures. axios.link/4h273Di

• RoboForce, a developer of humanoid robot workers, raised $10m from backers like Myron Scholes, Gary Rieschel, and Carnegie Mellon University. axios.link/4a2C2wR

• Dataships, a data compliance platform for Shopify stores, raised $7m in Series A funding led by Osage Venture Partners. axios.link/4j2CPBZ

• Jan3, a bitcoin wallet developer, raised $5m in seed funding. Fulgur Ventures led, and was joined by Tether, Grupo Salinas, Lightning Ventures, and East Ventures. axios.link/4gHJLmu

• Renais, a luxury gin brand co-founded by actress Emma Watson, raised £4.95m from InvestBuy and Jean-Sébastien Robicquet. axios.link/4h6Y2ci

• Fazeshift, maker of an AI agent for accounts receivable processes, raised $4m in seed funding, per Axios Pro. Gradient Ventures led, and was joined by YC, Wayfinder, Pioneer Fund, Ritual Capital, and Phoenix Fund. axios.link/405XPz9

• Tangible, a maker of carbon emissions software for the construction market, raised $3m co-led by Prologis Ventures and Pi Labs, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4h76mbF

• AA Investments of Hong Kong acquired French online retailer L'Exception. axios.link/4jfXzX4

• Advent International agreed to buy Sauer Brands, a Richmond, Va.-based condiments and spices maker, from Falfurrias Capital Partners. axios.link/4h62zvd

• AmeriLife Group, an insurer owned by Thomas H. Lee Partners, agreed to buy Crump, a provider of life insurance and retirement products, from TIH Insurance Group, a portfolio company of Stone Point Capital, Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, and Mubadala. axios.link/40nw1HR

🌎 Apollo and BC Partners agreed to buy the environmental services business of waste management firm GFL Environmental (NYSE: GFL) at an C$8b enterprise value, with GFL retaining a $1.7b equity interest. axios.link/421PVJy

⚡ Berkshire Partners invested in Electric Power Engineers, an Austin, Texas-based energy and power systems engineering and consulting firm. epeconsulting.com

• Bregal Sagemount invested in 360 Advanced, a St. Petersburg, Fla., cybersecurity and compliance consultancy. 360advanced.com

• Colibri Group, a St. Louis-based professional education company owned by Gridiron Capital, acquired Boston Institute of Finance, a provider of financial planning and wealth management education. colibrigroup.com

• Elite, a portfolio company of TPG and Thomson Reuters, acquired Tranch, a B2B invoice automation and payments company for law firms that raised $100m in seed funding co-led by FoundersX and Soma Capital. axios.link/3PnKfBZ

• Hidden Harbor Capital Partners invested in Quaker Valley Foods, a Philadelphia-based protein distributor. quakervalleyfoods.com

• PSG invested in CourseKey, a San Diego-based vocational student success platform. coursekey.com

• Remus Capital led a bankruptcy buyout of Presto Automation, a San Carlos, Calif., provider of voice recognition solutions for quick-service restaurant drive-thrus. presto.com

• QuestGates, a portfolio company of Equistone, acquired two U.K. companies: Toppings, a provider of forensic accounting for motor claims, and Brownsword, a provider of motor claims investigation services. questgates.co.uk

⚡ Varel Energy Solutions, a Houston portfolio company of Bluewater, acquired Ace Well Technology, a Norwegian provider of oilfield casing, cementing, and completion products. varel.com

• Veracode, an application risk management company backed by Thoma Bravo and TA Associates, acquired certain assets of Phylum, an Evergreen, Colo., malicious package analysis company that had raised around $19m from backers like ClearSky, Atlassian Ventures, and SixThirty Ventures. axios.link/3PltXtA

🚑 Waud Capital Partners completed its purchase of Mopec Group, a Madison Heights, Mich., maker of medical equipment for pathology, from Blackford Capital. mopec.com

🚑 Wellful, a portfolio company of Kainos Capital, acquired Franklin, Tenn.-based nutritional supplements maker Ancient Nutrition from VMG Partners and Hillhouse Investment. ancientnutrition.com

• Wind Point Partners acquired ExperiGreen, a Mishawaka, Ind., provider of lawn care services for over 140k residential customers, from Huron Capital. experigreen.com

🚑 Beta Bionics, an Irvine, Calif., developer of an insulin delivery system for Type 1 diabetes, filed for an IPO. The pre-revenue company plans to list on the Nasdaq (BBNX), and raised around $350m from firms like Eventide Asset Management (16.7% pre-IPO stake), RTW Investments (11.5%), Wellington Management (11%), Sands Capital (9.4%), Soleus Capital (8.5%), Omega Funds (6.4%), Farallon Capital, Perceptive Advisors, ArrowMark Partners, and Pura Vida Investments. axios.link/3PnbFrZ

• Cantor Equity Partners 1, a SPAC formed by Cantor Fitzgerald, raised $200m in its IPO. The CEO is Howard Lutnick, who President-elect Trump nominated for Commerce secretary. axios.link/4j8GDl1

⚡ Clarios International, a Milwaukee maker of low-voltage vehicle batteries, withdrew its IPO registration. The company was acquired in 2019 for $13.2 billion by Brookfield Asset Management and Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec. axios.link/4gzG0iR

⚡ Flowco, a Houston-based provider of oil and gas well equipment and services, set IPO terms to 17.8m shares at $21-$23 per share. It plans to list on the NYSE (FLOC), and reports $58m of net income on $349m in revenue for the first nine months of 2024. Owners are Genesis Park and White Deer Energy. axios.link/3BUoNSf

• AE Industrial Partners sold CDI Engineering Solutions, a Houston-based EPCM firm, to Tata Consulting Engineers. axios.link/3DLmcur

• KKR is weighing a sale of its stake in Japanese supermarket operator Seiyu, per Nikkei. axios.link/40l2s9Q

• NXP (Nasdaq: NXPI) agreed to buy TTTech Auto, an Austrian maker of safety software for autonomous vehicles, for $625m in cash. TTTech had raised over $300m firms like Audi, Samsung, GE Ventures, and Aptiv. axios.link/3W9qjGX

• Cintas (Nasdaq: CTAS) offered to buy work uniform provider UniFirst (NYSE: UNF) for $5.3b in cash, or $275 per share. axios.link/3Pql1D6

• Getty Images (NYSE: GETY) agreed to buy rival stock images provider Shutterstock (NYSE: SSTK) for $3.7b (including debt). axios.link/4gMtjBw

🚑 Stryker (NYSE: SYK) agreed to buy Inari Medical (Nasdaq: NARI), an Irvine, Calif.-based maker of medical devices for treating peripheral vascular diseases for $4.9b ($80 per share). axios.link/3Wco0CX

• 1Password, a Toronto-based identity security company valued by VCs at $6.8b, acquired Trelica, a British provider of access management SaaS. axios.link/40mZIIQ

• Artistry Restaurants of Florida acquired Hickory Tavern, a Charlotte, N.C.-based operator of 20 casual dining restaurants. axios.link/409dOMC

• Brat TV, a digital content studio that caters to Gen Z, bought rival Electric Monster and renamed the combined company ZATV. Brat has raised around $55m from firms like Green Meadow Ventures, R2 Ventures and Niche Capital, while EM raised over $14m from firms like Heroic Ventures, Creator Capital, and Together Venture Partners. axios.link/4gOc6Yf

• ClearScore, a London fintech that's raised over $200m from firms like Invus, Lead Edge Capital, and QED Investors, acquired British credit marketplace Aro Finance. axios.link/425K1ai

• Cymulate, an Israeli cybersecurity startup that's raised $126m from VCs, acquired CYNC Secure, an Israeli cybersecurity startup focused on exposure management programs. axios.link/3PriTeA

🚑 Eton Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ETON) acquired Galzin, a branded medication for patients with Wilson disease, from Teva Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: TEVA). axios.link/3DTaqOs

• Helvetia, a Swiss insurer, is weighing a sale of its German insurance unit, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4j2O3q6

• Julius Baer Group (Swiss: BAER) agreed to sell its Brazil unit to BTG Pactual for around $101m. axios.link/3DGbKEy

🚑 Renovaro (Nasdaq: RENB) acquired Predictive Oncology (Nasdaq: POAI), a Pittsburgh drug discovery company, in an all-stock deal. axios.link/40jZOB0

• Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF) agreed to acquire Bryan, Garnier & Co., an investment bank focused on European tech and health-care companies. axios.link/3DHCVPc

• TGI Fridays agreed to sell nine locations for $34.5m to airport restaurant operator Mera Corp., per bankruptcy court approval. axios.link/3W6FOPK

• Wonder Group, the dining super-app led by Marc Lore, completed its $650m purchase of food delivery service Grubhub from Just Eat Takeaway. axios.link/3W9ui6x

• Michael Barr is stepping down as the Federal Reserve's vice chair for supervision. axios.link/408u8gy

• AGL Credit Management named managing director David Richman as head of private credit underwriting. axios.link/3tLnosJ

⚡ ArcLight Capital promoted Terry Wetterman to managing director of IR. axios.link/3C1RH2L

• Golden Gate Capital promoted Roman Burgess to principal. axios.link/4fIx3SZ

• Christopher Jensen joined Blue Owl Capital as a managing director. He previously was with IPI Partners. axios.link/409jCFU

• Lead Edge Capital promoted Brian Lobdell to partner, Susan Bihler to COO and John Byers to principal. leadedge.com

• Mercato Partners promoted Joe Kaiser to CEO. axios.link/4j62IRb

• Northleaf Capital Partners promoted Jared Waldron to co-head of infrastructure, alongside Jamie Storrow. axios.link/3CaYuai

• Oak HC/FT promoted Oivind Lorentzen, Allen Miller, and Andy Smith, to partners. It also promoted Eliza Adams and Charlotte Black to principals, and Maddie Hilal and Jade Nguyen vice presidents. oakhcft.com

• Emily Pollack joined KKR as a director in the firm's global product and solutions group. She previously spent seven years with Schroders Capital. axios.link/409dgGy

• Spectrum Equity promoted Emily Calkins to principal. axios.link/4j2ij4l