Private equity has long claimed that it doesn't pose systemic risk to the U.S. or global economies.

• And it's been right, due to standard structures whereby portfolio companies are siloed. If one portfolio company fails, it doesn't impact another — even if within the same fund.

But, but, but: Credit ratings agency Moody's thinks that positive paradigm might be shifting, per a new report on private credit.

• It's a fear that's also been hinted at by the FDIC chair, which wants more visibility and oversight of private credit, although neither is yet hitting the panic button.

What to know: Moody's believes that the number of leveraged buyouts will soon increase, with better credits heading to the syndicated loan market where economies of scale allow for cheaper pricing. Weaker companies are more apt to stick with private credit, where intense competition among lenders flush with dry powder will lead to laxer terms.

• Meanwhile, the growing glut of private lenders is masking the sector's consolidation "in a smaller group of larger-scale managers," many of whom also have private equity arms and are either buying or partnering with insurance companies.
• Moreover, these firms are increasingly sourcing capital from individual investors (including efforts to expand beyond high-net-worth and into retail).

Per Moody's: "All of this is contributing to the development of an ever-expanding, interrelated lending and investing loop...

• "Another emerging risk is maturity transformation, often a key transmission mechanism for systemic contagion because it can lead to fire sales that then spread to other asset classes ... But it will be difficult to see where risk bubbles may be building, especially since these asset managers are increasingly lending to and borrowing through buying and selling. If one of these large managers were hit with a serious liquidity problem, it would likely spark far more severe credit repercussions in the broader economy."

The big picture: Private equity qua private equity isn't at issue here. Instead, Moody's argues that the industry has gotten too close to lenders that once were more at arm's length, and then a few more arms via syndication.

The bottom line: Predicting the next economic catastrophe has been Wall Street's favorite parlor game since 2008, and the crystal balls typically prove to be cracked.

• For now, the Moody's warning may fuel calls for further regulation of private credit, particularly in terms of transparency. But, longer term, it could cause private equity investors to be a bit more circumspect when championing their industry's macro safety.

The Carlyle Group is moving away from U.S. buyouts in the consumer, media and retail sectors, as first reported by Bloomberg and confirmed by Axios.

Why it's the BFD: This is partially about past performance, but more about Carlyle's determination that these areas have too many investment headwinds. If Carlyle was simply dissatisfied with its CMR team, but wanted to keep pursuing the sector, it would have found a new CMR team.

Details: Four members of the U.S. CMR team are leaving the firm, while others either will manage out the portfolio (Brandon Staub leads that effort) or move onto other industry teams. Carlyle's Europe and Asia CMR teams are unaffected.

• Carlyle announced the reorganization in an internal memo that was obtained by Axios. Other moves include promoting Will McMullan to co-head of financial services (he previously worked on health care) and Anna Tye as co-head of technology (while remaining co-head of growth).
• The firm's core U.S. sectors now are financial services, tech, health care, industrials, and government services.
• A firm spokesperson declined comment.

The bottom line: "While these decisions are never easy, this is necessary to position our platform and team for the future." — Carlyle memo, signed by Americas private equity co-heads Sandra Horbach and Brian Bernasek

• Stampli, a Mountain View, Calif.-based accounts payable automation startup, raised $61m in Series D funding. Blackstone led, and was joined by insiders Insight Partners, SignalFire and Bloomberg Beta. https://axios.link/3taMFfs

• Pulumi, a Seattle-based infrastructure-as-code platform, raised $41m in Series C funding. Madrona led, and was joined by NEA, Tola Capital and Strike Capital. www.pulumi.com

• Automata, a British science lab automation company, raised $40m. Dimension led, and was joined by Octopus Ventures, Hummingbird, Isomer Capital, Possible Ventures, Aldea Ventures and A.P. Moller. https://axios.link/45bfA0d

🚑 Holmusk, a behavioral health real-world evidence company, raised $30m from health care data firm Veradigm (Nasdaq: MDRX). www.holmusk.com

• Stitch, a South African fintech API startup, raised $25m in Series A extension funding. Ribbit Capital led, and was joined by insiders PayPal Ventures, CRE Ventures and The Raba Partnership. https://axios.link/3ZC0U9v

⚡ Amperon, a Houston-based grid forecasting startup, raised $20m in Series B funding, per Axios Pro. Energize Capital led, and was joined by D.E. Shaw, Veriten, Ørsted, and insider HSBC Asset Management. https://axios.link/3F3lMg8

• Reserv, a Weston, Conn.-based digital claims admin startup, raised $20m in Series a funding co-led by Altai Ventures and Bain Capital Ventures, per Axios Pro. https://axios.link/3tj6a5N

• Unitary, a London-based visual moderation startup, raised $15m in Series A funding. Creandum led, and was joined by Paladin Capital Group and Plural. www.unitary.ai

• Kafene, a New York-based point-of-sale financing platform, raised $12.6m in Series B extension funding led by insider Third Prime. www.kafene.com

🤖 Bonsai Robotics, a San Jose, Calif.-based provider of computer vision solutions for heavy farming equipment, raised $10.5m in seed funding. Acre Venture Partners led, and was joined by E14, Congruent, Serra Ventures, Fall Line Capital, SNR Ventures and Andros. https://axios.link/3Q0t9LK

• Grow Credit, a Santa Monica, Calif.-based credit-building startup, raised $10m in Series A funding led by USAA. www.growcredit.com

• Creednz, an Israeli payments fraud startup, raised $7m. Blumberg Capital led, and was joined by Elron Ventures and Moneta VC. https://axios.link/3RFKvyI

• Lex, an LGBTQIA+ social app, raised $5.6m in seed funding. Stellation Capital led, and was joined by Slauson & Co, Hope Lab Ventures, Best Nights VC, Great Oaks, Graph Ventures, Female Founders Fund, Alpaca Ventures, Red Swan and Gaingels. https://axios.link/45jl3SK

• Muir.ai, a Seattle-based developer of insights for reducing emissions in corporate supply chains, raised $3.25m in seed funding. Base10 Partners led, and was joined by Madrona Venture Labs and Soma Capital. www.muri.ai

• Humata AI, an Austin, Texas-based platform for simplifying research publications, raised $3.5m in seed funding from Gradient Ventures, ARK Invest and M13. www.humata.ai

• Arlington Capital Partners acquired Avenu, a Centreville, Va.-based provider of revenue and ops software for state and local governments, from Mill Point Capital. www.avenuinsights.com

⚡ Brookfield agreed to buy the onshore wind farm unit of Britain's Banks Group for around $1b. https://axios.link/3EZj2QS

• DiGiCo, a British portfolio company of Ardian, acquired Fourier Audio, a British live sound software provider. https://axios.link/48Bmv5M

• Gradiant, a Woburn, Mass.-based provider of water treatment solutions, acquired H+E Group, a German provider of water solutions for advanced manufacturing. Gradiant has raised over $460m from firms like Warburg Pincus, BoltRock, WorldQuant Ventures and Centaurus Capital, while H&E was backed by SGF. https://axios.link/3F2avN8

• GTCR completed its $1.6b buyout of ADT's (NYSE: ADT) commercial security, fire and life safety business. https://axios.link/47qYFt9

• Imperial Dade, a Jersey City, N.J.-based portfolio company of Advent International and Bain Capital, acquired Eugene Allard, a French distributor of paper goods, packaging materials and janitorial products. https://axios.link/48zoJmd

• Kismet Group, an Australian private equity firm, acquired the media.com domain and will launch a publishing platform for reputation management. https://axios.link/3EYOe2G

• Style Capital, an Italian private equity firm, has agreed to acquire a majority stake in French fashion brand Soeur. Sellers include Experienced Capital. https://axios.link/3PDc60L

🚑 Unimed, a New York-based portfolio company of ZCG, acquired MedSupply Florida, a provider of medical provisions to the global cruise industry, from International SOS, a Singapore-based company backed by Peugeot Invest. www.universalmarinemedical.com

• Vista Equity Partners acquired a majority stake in TRG Screen, a New York-based provider of subscription spend management software, per Bloomberg. Sellers include Pamlico, while Vista is committing around $250m in growth capital to the company. https://axios.link/46yh8CD

🌎 Heramba Electric, a German company focused on decarbonization of commercial transportation, agreed to go public at an implied $450m enterprise value via Project Energy Reimagined Acquisition (Nasdaq: PEGR). https://axios.link/48E6Ker

• IronNet, a McLean, Va.-based cybersecurity platform, has shut down. The company went public via SPAC in mid-2021, after securing a PPP loan and raising over $150m in VC funding from firms like C5 Capital, ForgePoint Capital, Kleiner Perkins and Trident Capital. https://axios.link/3RMfysH

• Cinven hired Goldman Sachs and Fenchurch Advisory to explore a sale of German life insurer Viridium, per Reuters. https://axios.link/46fD4me

• Elliott Investment Management is seeking a buyer for Gigamon, a Santa Clara, Calif.-based provider of network-derived intelligence and insights that could fetch more than $2b (including debt), per Bloomberg. https://axios.link/3PJ1M7w

• iA (TSX: IAG) agreed to buy Vericity (Nasdaq: VERY), a Chicago-based life insurer majority owned by J.C. Flowers & Co., for around $170m. www.vericity.com

• Tenable (Nasdaq: TENB) completed its acquisition of Ermetic, an Israeli cloud infrastructure entitlement manager, for upwards of $265m (including $240m in cash). Ermetic had raised over $80m from firms like Accel, Qumra Capital, Norwest Venture Partners, Target Global, Accel, Forgepoint Capital, Glilot Capital Partners and Splunk Ventures. www.ermetic.com

• Vista Equity Partners is seeking a buyer for Quickbase, a Boston-based no-code enterprise app development platform that could fetch more than $2.5b (including debt), per Bloomberg. https://axios.link/46aOUOw

• Dirt Media, seeded by such firms as Collab+Currency, acquired Tyler Watamanuk's design newsletter, Sitting Pretty, per Axios Pro. https://axios.link/3RI0ufy

🚑 Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) agreed to buy Point Biopharma Global (Nasdaq: PNT), an Indianapolis-based developer of radioligand therapies for treating cancer, for $1.4b in cash, or $12.50 per share (87% premium to yesterday's closing price). https://axios.link/3ZDGr46

🍪 Krispy Kreme (Nasdaq: DNUT) said it's exploring options for its Insomnia Cookies business. https://axios.link/3M8XBBd

• PNC Financial Services (NYSE: PNC) acquired a loan portfolio from Signature Bridge Bank, per an agreement with the FDIC. It includes $9b of funded loans, as part of $16.6b in total commitments. https://axios.link/3RDZSrv

• Ripple canceled its agreement to acquire Fortress Trust, a Las Vegas-based crypto infrastructure company. https://axios.link/3PxVfN3

• Tiny, a Canadian tech investment and holding company, paid $50m for a a 60% stake in Letterboxd, a social film discussion and discovery platform. https://axios.link/3EXidIq

• Brookfield raised $12b for its sixth flagship private equity fund. https://axios.link/465Eujf

🚑 FemHealth Ventures, an New York-based VC firm focused on women's health, raised $32m for its debut fund. https://axios.link/464ECQ1

• HCVC, a Paris-based VC, raised $75m for its second fund. https://axios.link/3ZH2rLj

• Kelso & Co. raised $3.25b for its 11th midmarket buyout fund. www.kelso.com

• Max Ventures, a New York-based early-stage firm, is raising up to $50m for its third fund, per an SEC filing.

• MiddleGround Capital, a Lexington, Ky.-based midmarket PE firm, is raising up to $1.75b for its third flagship fund, per an SEC filing.

• Tiger Infrastructure Partners is raising its fourth fund, per an SEC filing.

• Visa (NYSE: V) announced a $100m corporate VC allocation aimed at generative AI startups. Because why not? https://axios.link/46CRhcV

• Jeffrey Chang was promoted to the head of private equity at Guardian Life, where he'll oversee a $5b portfolio. https://axios.link/3EYCJII

• Eric London joined Fidelity as senior vice president of alternative investments. He previously was co-managing partner of Geyser Advisors. https://axios.link/3M8N7BR

• Greg Katz joined New Heritage Capital as vice president of biz dev. He previously served in the same role with FreighFlows. www.newheritagecapital.com

🚑 John Lepore, former head of R&D at GlaxoSmithKline, joined Flagship Pioneering as a CEO-partner and CEO of portfolio company ProFound Therapeutics. https://axios.link/3teM2Sn

• Reminder that Flagship founder and CEO Noubar Afeyan, who also co-founded and chairs Moderna, will join us next week at the Axios BFD.

Investors cheered in June 2022 when Kellogg announced plans to split into three separate businesses via tax-free spinoffs. But yesterday was a different story, when the plan actually materialized.

• Kellogg previously downsized the split into two parts, opted to retain its plant-based food business. So yesterday's split was only of its North American cereals business (which 7-year-old me would have assumed was the world's most valuable corporation).
• At market close on Friday, Kellogg was worth $20.4 billion, but that fell to $19.1 billion as of market close yesterday for the combined entities.

Axios' Felix Salmon writes that one intervening issue is the rise of Ozempic and similar drugs that reduce snack demand. Another:

• "Kellogg decided on a name for its 'Global Snacking Co.,' and instead of just calling it 'Global Snacking Co.,' which would have been an amazing name for a company, decided to call it Kellanova. If you name your newco something silly like Kellanova or Kyndryl, don't be surprised if it underperforms.