Pundits and politicians are getting ahead of themselves in crowing about how U.S. companies, particularly in the energy sector, could profit from this past weekend's events in Venezuela.

The big picture: No one knows how this will play out, nor even if the Trump administration has a solid strategy beyond the grab-and-go on Nicolás Maduro.

• Maduro's Chavismo government remains in place, as do its ties to China, and is cracking down on dissent.
• It either would need to be replaced or have a major change of heart before American companies begin striking deals.
• The U.S. hasn't endorsed the opposition leader nor set a timetable for new elections. There are no American boots on the ground to force the issue, and doing so would belie the "law enforcement action" rhetoric that has kept Congress on the sidelines.
• President Trump last night announced that the U.S. will receive up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil from Venezuela and that he would control how the proceeds are split. Venezuela's government hasn't yet publicly commented.

Zoom in: Venezuela has a glut of natural resources whose extraction infrastructure has grown "rusty," as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently said.

• Not just oil, but also minerals that are critical to the booming AI and defense industries.
• U.S. companies certainly would have interest in supplying the WD-40, particularly if bolstered by government incentives, but not necessarily under current conditions. It's uncertainty on steroids.

The bottom line: Substracting Maduro doesn't automatically add American-style capitalism to Venezuela, let alone American capitalists.

xAI raised $20 billion in Series E funding, up from earlier plans to raise $15 billion, in what is easily the new year's largest venture deal so far.

Why it's the BFD: Elon Musk's company is in hot water for allowing its chatbot, Grok, to generate fake images of real women in bikinis or less. In some cases, the deepfakes have been of kids.

Investors include Valor Equity Partners, Stepstone Group, Fidelity, Qatar Investment Authority, MGX, Baron Capital Group, Sequoia Capital, Nvidia, and Cisco Investments.

The bottom line: "Grok's continued posting of nonconsensual images on X highlights a key unsettled legal issue around artificial intelligence: just who — if anyone — is liable for harm caused by a chatbot's outputs." — Ina Fried, Axios

🚑 Soley Therapeutics, a South SF-based oncology biotech, raised $200m in Series C funding. Surveyor Capital led, joined by HRTG Partners, RWN Management, Doug Leone Family Fund, Breyer Capital, and GordonMD Global Investments. axios.link/499I7IX

• Photonic, a Canadian quantum computing company, raised C$180m from RBC, Telus, and insiders like Microsoft. axios.link/4puVmZr

• LMArena, an AI evaluation platform, raised $150m at a $1.7b post-money valuation. Felicis and UC Investments led, joined by a16z, The House Fund, LDVP, Kleiner Perkins, Lightspeed Venture Partners, and Laude Ventures. axios.link/3N6DA1k

• Swap, a London-based e-commerce logistics platform, raised $100m in Series C funding led by DST Global and Iconiq, per Axios Pro. axios.link/453CuJY

• Lyte, a Mountain View, Calif.-based developer of "visual brains" for robots, raised $107m from Avigdor Willenz, Fidelity, Atreides Management, Exor Ventures, Key1 Capital, and Venture Tech Alliance. axios.link/4jtLNbP

🚑 Corsera Health, a developer of preventative cardiovascular drugs, raised $80m in Series A funding led by Forbion and Population Health Partners. axios.link/3NxurPq

🚑 Spiro Medical, developer of a pulmonary neuromodulation system for treating asthma, raised $67m in Series A funding. Andera Partners, Omega Funds and Sherpa Healthcare Partners led, joined by HSG, Supernova Invest, Northern Light Venture Capital, and Hero UK. axios.link/3N1SHcx

• GS Microelectronics, a San Jose, Calif.-based semiconductor services startup, raised $35m in Series B funding led by Maverick Silicon. axios.link/49oBtgR

• Semafor, a news media startup, raised $30m at a $330m post-money valuation. axios.link/4svrhf2

• Blackbird.AI, which tracks online narratives about businesses, raised $28m led by Ten Eleven Ventures and Dorilton Ventures, per Axios Pro. axios.link/49z4gQ2

• Qualinx, a Dutch designer of low-power connectivity chips, raised €20m. Invest‑NL led, joined by Forward.one, InnovationQuarter Capital, and Waterman Ventures. axios.link/4aNl6wK

🚀 Array Labs, a maker of small satellites for Earth observation, raised $20m in Series A funding. Catapult Ventures led, joined by Washington Harbour Partners, Kompas VC, YC, Maiora Capital, Animal Capital, Aera VC, Cultivation Capital, and Clearance Ventures. axios.link/4qMNkfT

• Babylon, an infrastructure layer for Bitcoin to serve as collateral across DeFi, raised $15m from a16z. axios.link/4blQPFi

• Pluto, an NYC-based private markets lending platform, raised $8.6m in seed funding from Motive Ventures, Portage, Apollo Global Management, Hamilton Lane, Tectonic Ventures, and Broadhaven Ventures. axios.link/3Ys0keE

🌍 Biographica, a London-based agri-biotech, raised £7m. Faber VC led, joined by SuperSeed, Cardumen Capital, The Helm, EQT Foundation, Sie Ventures and insiders Chalfen Ventures, Entrepreneurs First, Nucleus Capital, Dhyan Ventures, Saras Capital, and Ventures Together. axios.link/3YpnuSX

• Tesoro XP, an Austin-based platform for retailers to fund in-game currency, raised $5.4m in seed funding led by Treasury and TK MediaTech Ventures. axios.link/4qIDvzr

• Advent International is leading a recent €6b takeover effort for InPost, a Polish parcel locker operator that it helped take public five years ago, per Sky News. axios.link/3Yp8zIq

🚑 Altaris acquired Tegria, a Spokane, Wash.-based provider of health-tech consulting, from Providence St. Joseph Health. tegria.com

• Arxis, a portfolio company of Arcline, acquired Micro-Tronics, a Tempe, Ariz.-based provider of elastomeric and metallic components for commercial aerospace and defense applications. arxis.com

• ATL Partners acquired both SkyMark, a maker of aircraft refueling trucks and hydrant dispensers, and Rampmaster, a maker of aircraft refueling solutions for commercial and general aviation markets. axios.link/4szgwZu

• AxioAero, a Core Industrial Partners portfolio company, acquired Airway Aerospace, a Doral, Fla.-based aviation repair station. axios.link/4jxsQW3

• The Blackhawk Group, a portfolio company of New State Capital Partners, acquired Silver Sky Aviation, an Alaska-based turboprop maintenance provider. axios.link/4prrP2O

• Capitol Meridian Partners and Stellex Capital Management carved out Beaufort, a U.K. aerospace and defense survival equipment division, from Survitec, a portfolio company of Searchlight Capital Partners, M&G, and CQS. axios.link/4pvGxpv

⚡ East Coast Power, an A&M Capital Partners portfolio company, acquired United Powerline Solutions, an Haubstadt, Ind.–based provider of overhead distribution services for electric utilities. axios.link/4bmoWwX

• Greenbriar Equity Group acquired eShipping, a Parkville, Mo.-based provider of transportation, logistics, and supply chain tech, from Ridgemont Equity Partners. axios.link/3Yrgo0g

• Fusion Capital Partners acquired Excel Engineering, a Diagonal, Iowa-based provider of testing services for engine, powertrain, battery systems and fuels. axios.link/451sMI1

• Hg agreed to acquire financial software firm OneStream (Nasdaq: OS) for $6.4b, with General Atlantic and Tidemark participating as minority investors. axios.link/3LAofpj

• I Squared Capital agreed to buy Ramudden Global, a Swedish infrastructure safety firm, from Triton. axios.link/453C3zk

• KKR is investing an additional $1.5b into European data center platform Global Technical Realty, with Oak Hill Capital committing around $400m. axios.link/3LzapDC

• LongRange Capital agreed to buy gym chain 24 Hour Fitness from Monarch Alternative Capital, Sculptor Capital Management and Keyframe Capital Partners, per Axios. axios.link/4sugXE5

🚑 MidEuropa acquired a majority stake in Croatian optical chain Optika Anda. axios.link/4qKJZOn

• New Directions Aromatics, a TruArc Partners portfolio company, acquired Aromatic Fragrances International, a Cartersville, Ga.-based fragrance supplier. axios.link/4qzeGpm

• PestCo, a Thompson Street Capital Partners portfolio company, acquired the assets of Bio-Tech Pest Control, a provider of residential and commercial pest control services in metro Houston. axios.link/45IJcFk

🚑 PureStar, a Cornell Capital portfolio company, acquired Emerald Textiles, a San Diego-based linen services provider to health care. axios.link/4aIrR2N

⚡ Quantum Energy Partners is teaming with Chevron (NYSE: CVX) on a $22b bid for Lukoil's international assets, per the FT. axios.link/49aZMQz

🚑 Superior Health, a Renovus Capital Partners portfolio company, acquired the Bayou Country hospice operations of Hope Healthcare & Hospice. axios.link/3NxyZVX

🚑 TPG in talks to buy the U.K. operations of Optum from UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) for over £1b, per Sky News. axios.link/4sv4bFy

• Black Spade Acquisition III raised $150m in its IPO. Prior Black Spade SPACs acquired Vinfast Auto and Generation Essentials Group. axios.link/49qovPN

• Discord, an SF-based encrypted chat app popular with gamers, filed confidentially for an IPO, per Bloomberg. It's raised over $1b in VC funding, from firms like Dragoneer, Sony Interactive Entertainment, Coatue, Edelweiss Capital, Acrew Capital, Fidelity, Mindrock Capital, Summit Peak Investments, 1Confirmation, Bitkraft, Tencent, Accel, and General Catalyst. axios.link/4bmjSZq

• D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) agreed to acquire Quantum Circuits, which had raised around $125m from firms like Sequoia Capital, Arch Venture Partners, F-Prime Capital, Fitz Gate Ventures, Canaan Partners, Tribeca Venture Partners, Osage University Partners, In-Q-Tel, Connecticut Innovations, and Tao Capital Partners. axios.link/3N76IWh

• Mobileye (Nasdaq: MBLV) agreed to acquire Israeli humanoid robotics startup Mentee Robotics for $900m in cash and stock. Mentee raised around $38m from firms like Cisco Investments, Ahren Innovation Capital, 10D, Ahren Innovation Capital and Samsung Next Ventures. axios.link/49JuErp

Warner Bros. Discovery's board has unanimously rejected Paramount's updated hostile takeover bid, arguing the offer submitted in late December "is inferior given significant costs, risks and uncertainties as compared to the Netflix merger."

• Akur8, a French insurance pricing engine that's raised nearly $200m in VC funding, acquired Matrisk, a Denver-based platform for regulatory filings search and intelligence. axios.link/4qFpFh6

🚑 Artis BioSolutions, a Carlsbad, Calif.-based startup backed by Oak HC/FT, agreed to acquire Syngoi Technologies, a Spanish developer of enzymatic approaches for manufacturing synthetic DNA. axios.link/3YsSaTi

🚑 Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) is in advanced talks to buy inflammatory disease biotech Ventyx Biosciences (Nasdaq: VTYX) for more than $1b, per the WSJ. axios.link/4qAi5V0

• GTreasury, a unit of Ripple, acquired Solvexia, an Australian platform to automate reconciliation and regulatory reporting. axios.link/49qN9Qj

• Marubeni (Tokyo: 8002) acquired Jacobson Group, owner of British footwear brands like Gola. axios.link/49dJTcc

• Revolut, the London-based neobank valued by VCs at $75b, is in talks to acquire Turkish digital bank FUPS, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3YwPQL0

🚑 Lupus Ventures was launched as a philanthropic venture fund by the The Lupus Research Alliance, with a focus on new therapies and diagnostics for autoimmune diseases. axios.link/4sKLwG3

• Monroe Capital raised $6.1b for its fifth private credit fund focused on lower mid-market companies. axios.link/3YYPY62

• Xirius Ventures, an applied and physical AI-focused VC firm led by Mandy Wen (ex-GSR Ventures), is raising $50m for its debut fund, per an SEC filing.

• CCMP Growth Advisors named managing director Patrick McGrath to its investment committee and promoted: Chris Stevenson to senior principal, Casey Klingler and Connor Moran to principals, and Jamie Flanagan to VP and controller. axios.link/4blNm9K

• Yujin Chung joined Hannah Grey VC as customer intelligence lead. Prior roles were at SignalFire, BAM Elevate, and a16z. axios.link/4pwu0Cz

• Rich Copans and Mike Nettesheim joined Greystone Industrial Partners as a partner and principal, respectively. They previously were with Madison Dearborn Partners, where they worked with Greystone founder Drew Macha. greystoneip.com

• Gamut Capital Management promoted Noah Leichtling to COO (while retaining his role as general counsel and chief compliance officer). Michael Jordan and Drew Kobasa were promoted to principals. axios.link/45EdZmE

• HighVista Strategies promoted Whit Matthews, Rob Nagle, and Ryan Tiffany to partners. axios.link/49qhjD0

• Kenneth Keller joined Marlin Equity Partners. He previously was with Strattam Capital. axios.link/4aTxY4x

• Anne-Laurence Roucher joined Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management as head of private markets. She previously was with Natixis. axios.link/3NyG4Wj

Global venture capital disbursements totaled $425 billion in 2025, a significant increase over 2024, with most of the boost driven by AI investments, per new data from Crunchbase.