Oil and gas has dominated the 2024 deals market, both globally and in the U.S.

• But their bright lights may soon dim.

The big picture: The boom has been driven by rising energy demand and a dwindling supply of targets (both companies and acreage).

The latest: The International Energy Agency just published a new outlook that reiterates its projection of peak oil demand by 2030.

• It argues that production capacity will exceed need by a "staggering" amount, in just six years.
• IEA estimates that the demand delta will be around 8.6 million barrels per day.

What IEA is saying: "The shale patch has continued to mature financially to a lower growth trajectory after a wave of M&A reinforced disciplined investing, deleveraging and returning cash to shareholders. The next stage of industry evolution will likely surround inventory management, value chain integration and emissions profiles."

The bull case: Six years might as well be 60 for many of today's dealmakers, and there are plenty of people who believe IEA is putting climate change advocacy over sober analysis.

• Plus, think of all the short-term cash dividends as emerging economies grow and AI makes a million data centers bloom.

The bear case: Six years is still just six years, as any private equity manager raising a continuation fund (i.e., all of them) will tell you. The best investors often zig while the crowd is still zagging.

Sony Pictures Entertainment acquired Alamo Drafthouse Cinema, an Austin, Texas-based movie theater chain that had been bought out of bankruptcy in 2021 by Altamont Capital Partners, Fortress Investment Group, and Alamo co-founder Tim League.

Why it's the BFD: This is the first time in decades that a major Hollywood studio will own a cinema company.

• Such deals had been prohibited since a 1948 Supreme Court decision known as the Paramount Decrees, but the rule was rolled back in 2020.
• Studios like Sony had managed to buy minority stakes in certain chains along the way, although later reversed course, while Amazon and Netflix each bought single theaters after the ban was sunsetted.

The bottom line: The move comes in a very weak year at the U.S. box office, without a Barbenheimer on the horizon.

• Cognigy, a German customer service automation startup, raised $100m in Series C funding. Eurazeo led, and was joined by insiders Insight Partners, DTCP, and DN Capital. axios.link/3RmrznG

⚡ Battery Smart, an Indian EV battery swapping network, raised $65m in Series B funding. LeapFrog Investments led, and was joined by MUFG Bank, Panasonic, Ecosystem Integrity Fund, Blume Ventures, and British International Investment. axios.link/4b13bit

• AccountsIQ, an Irish accounting platform, raised €60m from Axiom Equity. axios.link/3KEnnMi

🚑 Avava, a Waltham, Mass., medical aesthetics company, raised $35m in Series C funding from Jeisys Medical and Catalio Capital. avavaskin.com

• Learn to Win, a Redwood City, Calif. provider of enterprise training SaaS, raised $30m in Series A funding. Westly Group led, and was joined by Norwest Venture Partners, Pear VC, and Bull City Venture Partners. axios.link/4eifslr

⚡ Echion Technologies, a British developer of niobium-based battery materials, raised £29m in Series B funding. Volta Energy led, and was joined by insiders CBMM, BGF, and Cambridge Enterprise Ventures. axios.link/4cnb2Ip

⚡ Swift Solar, a San Carlos, Calif., solar manufacturer, raised $27m in Series A funding co-led by Eni and Fontinalis Partners. axios.link/4aXhDrH

🚑 Better Health, an SF medical supply provider, raised $14m from Healthworx, UHealth, and Mosaic General Partnership. joinbetter.com

• Light, a Danish ledger management startup, raised $13m in seed funding. Atomico led, and was joined by Cherry Ventures, Entrée Capital, and Seedcamp. axios.link/3RmIBlu

• Sidekick, a British wealth management platform, raised £8.5m in seed funding co-led by Pact VC and TheVentureCity. sidekickmoney.com

🌎 Aepnus Technology, an Oakland, Calif.-based decarbonization startup focused on battery supply chain chemicals, raised $8m in seed funding. Clean Energy Ventures led, and was joined by Voyager Ventures, Lowercarbon Capital, Impact Science Ventures, Muus Climate Partners, and Gravity Climate Fund. aepnus.com

• Roamless, a Turkish travel connectivity startup, raised $5m in seed funding led by Shorooq Partners. axios.link/3Rq2qZb

• Jump, a provider of software for financial advisers, raised $4.6m led by Pelion Venture Partners. axios.link/4b0UAwn

• Tern AI, an Austin, Texas-based navigation solution, raised $4.4m in seed funding from Scout Ventures, Shadow Capital, Bravo Victor VC, and Veteran Fund. axios.link/3KFc9qK

🚑 Rivia, a Swiss clinical trial infrastructure startup, raised €3m in seed funding led by Speedinvest. rivia.ch

• Ardian entered exclusive talks to buy a majority stake in Alstef Group, a French provider of automated handling and storage systems for airports and other logistics facilities. Current backers include CDC International Capital and Qatar Investment Authority. alstefgroup.com

• Blackstone dropped out of the bidding for the software unit of German lender Aareal Bank, per Bloomberg. Remaining suitors include TPG, Vista Equity Partners, and Hellman & Friedman. axios.link/3yXASnV

⚡ GenServe, a portfolio company of GenNx360 Capital Partners, acquired Electro-Motion, a provider of preventative maintenance for emergency standby power systems in Northern California, from Salt Creek Capital. axios.link/4aUUmGU

• Serent Capital invested in HarperDB, distributed systems platform. harperdb.io

🚑 NeOnc Technologies, a Westlake Village, Calif.-based developer of brain cancer therapies, withdrew registration for a $75m IPO. It had planned to list on the Nasdaq. axios.link/3VHYzJP

🚑 Perceptive Capital Solutions, a health care SPAC formed by Perceptive Advisors, raised $75m in its IPO. axios.link/3QWdEnY

• London Stock Exchange Group (LSE: LSEG) is in talks to buy parts of Primarybid, a London-based retail investing platform, per Sky News. Primarybid had raised over $180m from firms like LSEG, SoftBank, Molten Ventures, ABN VC, Lombard Odier, Pentech Ventures, OMERS, Fidelity International, and Hambrok Perks. axios.link/4chINdM

• Pluxee (Paris: PLX) agreed to buy Cobee, a Madrid-based employee benefits app that had raised over $70m from Balderton Capital, Octopus Ventures, Notion Capital, Speedinvest and Dila Capital. axios.link/3z8ftbq

🚑 QHP Capital sold Pro-ficiency, a Raleigh provider of clinical trials training and compliance solutions, to Simulations Plus (Nasdaq: SLP) for around $100m in cash. pro-ficiency.com

🚑 Seed Health, an LA-based probiotics maker, hired Centerview to find a buyer, per Reuters. It could fetch around $1b, and raised $40m in Series A funding three years ago led by The Craftory. axios.link/4b0qI34

• 360 One WAM, an Indian wealth manager, bought Indian mutual fund investment app ET Money for around $44m. axios.link/3yZUyr6

🚑 Brightside Health, an SF telemental health provider that's raised over $100m from VCs, acquired Lionrock Recovery, a Petaluma, Calif., provider of virtual substance use treatment. axios.link/3XkKB1G

• MidOcean Partners raised $765m for its third opportunistic credit fund. midoceanpartners.com

• PAG is nearing a $4b final close for its fourth pan-Asian buyout fund, less than half its original target, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4b2QMug

• Rachel Stock (ex-Hellman & Friedman) joined HGGC as general counsel and chief compliance officer, while Cecilia Kwan (B Capital Partners) joined as CFO. hggc.com

Tesla shares popped 6.3% at today's open, after Elon Musk tweeted that he expects to win shareholder votes on both his massive pay package and moving the company's incorporation to Texas from Delaware.

• The automaker will provide an official update after market close.