CFTC chairman Mike Selig came out swinging in the fight against state regulations of prediction markets, declaring they aren't gambling, and that his agency has "exclusive jurisdiction" to regulate the space.

The big question: Is the CFTC prepared or equipped to take on the full scope of prediction markets in the age of retail trading?

Between the lines: CFTC is expected to create more rules around prediction markets, particularly defining insider trading.

• But prediction markets have become a much larger retail phenomenon than traditional derivatives and there are serious questions about what further regulation is needed.
• Goodwin partner Andrew Kim notes: "The Commodities and Exchange Act wasn't intended for individual trading."

What they're saying: Selig took to multiple platforms over recent days to argue that prediction markets "aren't new" and have a legitimate economic purpose by hedging risk.

• That set up a very public state vs. federal fight, with Utah Gov. Spencer Cox writing: "I will use every resource within my disposal ... to beat you in court."

Zoom in: Prepare for a long fight that will likely to end up in the Supreme Court. While some prediction market contracts look more like traditional derivatives, others, like ones that bet on the odds of the Super Bowl, look awfully similar to state-regulated sports betting — and appear to be used by retail customers interchangeably.

• The FT reported Saturday that Kalshi's annualized revenues from sports trading account for around 90% of fees.
• Selig hinted at the arguments the CFTC could make for why sports-related trades on prediction markets should fall under his authority in Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, citing that prediction markets go through clearing houses, and that trades can be bought and sold.

The bottom line: Selig's move would severely limit the tools states have to regulate prediction markets. And he's kicking the regulation on the parts the CFTC isn't familiar with to Congress — "that's a question for society as a whole and for Congress," Selig says on Odd Lots, regarding who should be able to trade.

Saudi Public Investment Fund-backed AI company Humain said Wednesday it invested $3 billion in Elon Musk's xAI just before its acquisition by SpaceX.

• Those shares converted into shares of SpaceX following the merger.

Why it's the BFD: AI companies keep pushing deeper into the Middle East.

• Back in November, Humain and xAI had agreed to develop over 500MW of AI data centers and compute infrastructure, bringing the latter's Grok model to the country.
• Humain also began deploying OpenAI's open-source models last summer.

The intrigue: Humain is backed by PIF — which was at the center of the "funding secured" drama in 2018.

• Musk tweeted that he had funding secured to take Tesla private based on a conversation with PIF governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan. But those conversations fell apart, and Musk was later sued for fraud by shareholders, although he won.

The bottom line: Any cold feelings are clearly now in a much warmer state.

• Ineffable Intelligence, a London-based AI lab founded by former Google DeepMind researcher David Silver, is raising $1b at a roughly $5b post-money valuation. Sequoia Capital will lead, per the FT. axios.link/4tJ215L

• Vestwell, an NYC-based 401k savings plan company, raised $385m at a $2b valuation led by Blue Owl Capital and Sixth Street Growth. Neuberger Berman, SLW, Morgan Stanley, Franklin Templeton, TIAA Ventures, and HarbourVest joined. axios.link/4rUsbAC

• Kavak, a Mexico-based online used car dealer, raised $300m led by Andreessen Horowitz, with participation from WCM Investment Management and Foxhaven Asset Management. axios.link/4kKlsXR

• Heron Power, a Scotts Valley, Calif.-based maker of solid-state transformers, raised $140m in Series B funding led by Andreessen Horowitz's American Dynamism Fund and Breakthrough Energy Ventures. Capricorn Investment Group, Energy Impact Partners, Gigascale Capital, and Valor Atreides AI Fund joined. axios.link/4bVFexb

• Render, an SF-based cloud infrastructure startup, raised $100m in an extended Series C at a $1.5b valuation. Georgian led, joined by Addition, Bessemer, General Catalyst, and 01A. axios.link/4kJresI

• Utility Global, a Houston-based decarbonization company, raised $100m for the first close of its Series D. Ara Partners and APG Asset Management led. axios.link/4rW0veS

• Novig, a sports prediction market, raised $75m in Series B funding. Pantera Capital led. Multicoin, Makers Fund, Edge Equity, Forerunner and NFX joined. axios.link/3MCCSci

• DG Matrix, a solid-state transformer startup, raised $60m in Series A funding led by Engine Ventures. ABB, Cerberus Ventures, Chevron Technology Ventures, Clean Energy Ventures, Fine Structure Ventures, Helios Climate Ventures, MCJ, and Piedmont Capital joined. axios.link/40ii5he

• ChipAgents, a Santa Clara, Calif.-based software company for semiconductor design and verification, raised a $50m Series A1 led by Matter Venture Partners, with participation from Bessemer Venture Partners, Micron, MediaTek and Ericsson. axios.link/4tGw1z3

• Onodrim Industries, an Amsterdam-based defense tech and supply chain resiliency company, raised €40m in seed funding. Founders Fund, Lakestar, and General Catalyst led. axios.link/4aHJQEX

• ProSomnus, a maker of a discreet sleep apnea device, raised $35m from Catalio Capital, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4rS7Cov

• Stake, a Dubai-based fractional property investment platform, raised a $31m Series B round led by Emirates NBD, with participation from Mubadala and Middle East Venture Partners. axios.link/4cAdYEB

• VulnCheck, a Lexington, Mass.-based exploit intelligence startup, raised a $25m Series B led by Sorenson Capital, with participation from National Grid Partners, Ten Eleven Ventures and In-Q-Tel. axios.link/3Muqo6y

• Metafuels, a Swiss sustainable aviation fuel startup, raised $24m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. UVC Partners led, joined by existing investors Energy Impact Partners, Contrarian Ventures, RockCreek, Verve Ventures, and Fortescue. axios.link/46JrbHu

• Seasats, a San Diego, Calif.-based small uncrewed surface vehicles company, raised a $20m Series A led by Konvoy Ventures, with participation from Shield Capital, DNS Capital, Techstars, Tanis Venture Management, Crumpton Ventures and Dorado Group. axios.link/3On3Xkf

• Moab, an NYC-based equipment rental and dealership software developer, raised $16m in a combined seed and Series A round. Elad Gil led both rounds, joined by Ironspring Ventures and other angel investors. axios.link/4kEkKLP

• Kana, an SF-based marketing agentic AI company, raised $15m in seed funding. Mayfield led. kana.ai

• Dataro, an SF-based fundraising intelligence platform, raised a $14.3m Series A led by Blueprint Equity. axios.link/4apRbu0

• Payra, a Nashville, Tenn.-based accounts receivables company for construction, raised $15m from Edison Partners, per Axios Pro. axios.link/46UgZvO

• GelMEDIX, a Cambridge, Mass.-based biotech developing regenerative therapies to restore vision, raised a $13m seed round led by Safar Partners, with participation from HTL Biotechnology, Beacon Angels, TiE Boston Angels and Boston Harbor Angels. axios.link/4s0VOka

• Lightworks, a Canadian AI control systems consultancy firm, raised $12m led by Round13 Capital. axios.link/3OMpO4B

• Resurrect Bio, a British gene-editing startup focused on developing hardier crops, raised an $8.1m Series A led by Corteva, with participation from Calculus Capital, Pymwymic, UKI2S, SynBioVen and AgFunder. axios.link/3ZLCuv0

• Sphinx, a compliance agent startup for financial institutions, raised a $7.1m seed round led by Cherry Ventures, with participation from Y Combinator, Rebel Fund, Deel Ventures, and Singularity Capital. axios.link/4rR2GAf

• Breaker, an Austin, Texas-based AI defense startup, raised a $6m seed round led by Bessemer Venture Partners, with participation from Main Sequence. axios.link/3Mrdpm5

• nuuEnergy, a Munich-based heat-pump installation startup, raised a €4.3m seed round led by amberra, with participation from EnjoyVenture HTGF, Vireo Ventures, better ventures, and Bynd Venture Capital. axios.link/4tGYqoP

• Cydelphi, a Dallas-based cyber forensics company, raised $3m seed funding. Glasswing Ventures led joined by Blu Ventures, Hyde Park Angels and Merlin Group. axios.link/4kJrwji

• Argosy Private Equity combined Diverse Logistics and Pulse Final Mile to create a final-mile third-party logistics company for bulk. axios.link/3ZHDn7O

• Blackstone said it would acquire Champions Group, a residential services provider, from Odyssey Investment Partners, for around $2.5b. axios.link/4bVPmWJ

• The Eagle Leasing Company, a portfolio company of Kinderhook, acquired Raleigh, N.C.-based assets of West Brothers Trailers and Containers4Less, providers of shipping containers and semi-trailer rentals. axios.link/4qHRV2m

• Future Standard acquired a majority stake in Velonex Technologies, a San Antonio-based IT services provider to small and medium-sized businesses. axios.link/40eEsnJ

• GenNx360 Capital Partners invested in NVI, a Gray, La. -based compliance and testing company for energy infrastructure, industrial manufacturing, power generation markets. nvindt.com

• Innovative Consulting Group, a portfolio company of SV Health Investors, Health Enterprise Partners and Petra Capital Partners, acquired Pivot Point Consulting from Brentwood, Tenn.-based management consultant Highspring. axios.link/4anYpP9

• PlayPower, backed by Platinum Equity, agreed to acquire BCI Burke, a Fond du Lac, Wis.-based maker of play environments. axios.link/3OonK2I

• Polaris Private Equity took a majority stake in Valtus, an interim management company. axios.link/4aHefTL

• Prime AE Group, Platform Holdings, acquired Klavon Design Associates, a Pittsburgh-based landscape architecture and planning services company. axios.link/3Oll8Tq

• Renovus Capital Partners formed Opensity Solutions, an managed services organization serving legal, financial and professional services firms, by combining K2 Services, Epiq GBTS and Forrest Solutions. axios.link/4c0dDuQ

• Valiant Solutions, backed by Bluestone, acquired Abile Group, a provider of secure network and cyber services to national security customers. axios.link/46Th2be

• Armada Acquisition III, a SPAC led by Stephen Herbert (ex-CEO of Cantaloupe), raised $225m in an IPO. axios.link/3Omzd2Y

• Booz Allen Hamilton, a McLean, Va., consulting firm, said it would acquire Defy Security, a Canonsburg, Pa.-based cybersecurity company, from Sverica Capital. axios.link/4rncjH1

• Mistral AI, a European OpenAI competitor, agreed to buy Koyeb, a Paris-based AI app deployment startup whose backers include Acequia Capital, MongoDB Ventures and Samsung NEXT Ventures. axios.link/4kQH3xN

• Palo Alto Networks, a Santa Clara, Calif.-based cybersecurity company, is acquiring Koi, an Israeli cybersecurity startup, for a reported $400m, per Calcalist. Koi had raised about $48m from Battery Ventures, Team8, NFX, and Picture Capital. axios.link/4ruY8QA

• Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE:AJG), a Rolling Meadows, Ill.-based insurance brokerage, acquired B&W Insurance Agency, a Washington, Pa.-based commercial brokerage. axios.link/4aCdKKu

• Avenue Z, a Miami-based marketing agency, is acquiring Varfaj, a Miami-based Shopify development and optimization partner. axios.link/4rPgtr4

• Bombardier (OTCMKTS: BDRBF), a Canadian aircraft manufacturer, acquired Velocity Maintenance Solutions, a New Castle, Del.-based maintenance, repair and overhaul services provider. axios.link/4aBcCqx

• Cencora (NYSE: COR) will merge its Covetrus unit with MWI Animal Health, creating animal health platform with an enterprise value of $3.5b. axios.link/4aBdED4

• First Northern Advisors, a subsidiary of First Northern Bank, is acquiring Beacon Wealth Strategies, a Roseville, Calif.-based financial advisory firm and subsidiary of Raymond James. axios.link/46aqiaN

• Jana Partners has taken a stake in payments processor Fiserv (Nasdaq: FISV). axios.link/3Ojwo2x

• Liberty Global agreed to buyout partner Vodafone in its Dutch VodafoneZiggo venture for $1.2b. axios.link/4alxV0A

• MNT Group, an African wireless carrier, has agreed to buy the rest of a 75% stake in mobile infrastructure company IHS Holding, in a $6.2 billion, all-cash deal. Earlier, IHS had agreed to sell its Latin American tower operation to Macquarie Asset Management for $952m. axios.link/4rgBwD4

• Starboard Value is calling for a majority of seats on Tripadvisor's board of directors, after taking a 9% stake in the company. axios.link/4aCdTO2

• Battery Ventures raised $3.25b for its 15th flagship fund. battery.com

• JLL Partners raised $1.4b for its ninth fund targeting the middle market. axios.link/46Omw7d

• Kinterra Capital Corp. closed its second fund with $950m. axios.link/4qAKgTj

• Benchmark tapped Jack Altman as a general partner. axios.link/3OeUPhF

• Outcast Ventures, formed by former Coatue management general partner Andy Chen, named Amy Lin as a managing partner. axios.link/3Olukao

• Sentinel Global added Ethel Chen (former Sequoia Capital Global Equities investor) and Karan Sharma (former GIC), as general partners. axios.link/4tI6WE1

Private equity's activity in the software sector is at a high, amid a valuation reset in public markets.