The animal spirits are hibernating.

• Global M&A activity is down 20% from this same period in 2024, with U.S. activity off 25%, per LSEG.
• U.S. IPO proceeds are down 24% year-to-date, per Renaissance Capital.

The big picture: This wasn't supposed to happen, with President Trump tossing out Biden-era regulations — and regulators — like cigarette butts on a country road.

• Dealmakers believed that Trump 2.0 would usher in a new era of certainty, having memory-holed the original installment's constant chaos.
• Or perhaps they really thought things would be different this time, that it was a bug instead of a feature.
• Either way, we're back to the only real certainty, which is that there never is any. No matter who's in the White House.

Behind the scenes: Some dealmakers might be getting spooked by tariff-induced inflation fears, or weakening consumer confidence.

• Just for the sake of inconsistency, there also are a slew of reticent sellers who believe that the bull market has lots more runway; as evidenced by a recent mini-burst of hostile takeover bids.

Zoom in: And then there's the VC paradox that began long before Trump retook office, in which investors keep enabling their top unicorns to remain private. Even if it just makes some LPs scream louder into their pillows.

• Stripe has long been the poster child for this trend, but Anduril is coming on strong. The defense-tech giant, founded in 2017, reportedly is in talks to raise $2.5 billion in new funding at a $28 billion valuation.
• The deal makes sense for Anduril, which could use both the cash and repriced stock for acquisitions, but also reflects that the company didn't spend time in 2024 preparing for an early 2025 IPO. Despite the Trump win and the massive valuation run-up for comp Palantir.
• There's some chatter that more VC-backed startups will go public once Trump's SEC relaxes some disclosure requirements in areas like ESG, but that's marginal savings for multi-billion dollar businesses.

The bottom line: The more things change, the more they stay the same.

C&S Wholesale Grocers of New Hampshire is in advanced talks to buy 340 Winn-Dixie grocery and liquor stores from the U.S. arm of Germany's Aldi, per Reuters.

Why it's the BFD: This is a reminder that when antitrust regulators kill one big deal, other big deals often emerge.

• C&S had agreed to buy 579 stores from Kroger and Albertsons, via a divestiture arrangement that was contingent on those two grocers merging. But that didn't happen, as a judge sided with the FTC late last year.

The bottom line: "C&S, founded in 1918, is a supplier that has been seeking to significantly expand into grocery retail. It currently operates about two dozen stores under the Grand Union and Piggly Wiggly brands." — Abigail Summerville, Reuters

• Rapyd, a British fintech API company, is in talks to raise $300m at a $3.5b valuation (way down from $9b in 2021), per TechCrunch. axios.link/42LRFHe

• 75F, a Minneapolis-based company commercial HVAC automation company, raised $45m in Series B funding. Accurant International led, and was joined by Carrier Global, Climate Investment, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, Next47, and Wind Ventures. 75f.io

• Validus, a provider of financial risk management software, raised $45m from FTV Capital. validusrm.com

• BRKZ, a Saudi construction tech startup, raised $8m in Series A extension funding (including $1m of debt) from insiders Aramco, BECO Capital, Better Tomorrow Ventures, Class 5 Global, Fluent Ventures, Knollwood Investment Advisory, MISY Ventures, RZM Investment, and 9900 Capital. axios.link/40QjITo

• &AI, an SF-based AI agent for patent attorneys, raised $6.5m in seed funding. First Round Capital led, and was joined by YC, SV Angel, and BoxGroup. axios.link/3CK35AC

🌍 Planted, a German enterprise ESG platform, raised 5m in seed funding from TechVision Fonds, Wenvest Capital, Neoteq Ventures, AWS Gründungsfonds, and Smart Infrastructure Ventures. axios.link/42N2fO6

• Self Inspection, a San Diego-based auto inspection platform, raised $3m in seed funding. Costanoa Ventures and DVx Ventures co-led, and were joined by Westlake Financial. axios.link/3EwPc9G

• Centerseat, an Austin, Texas-based physical security compliance startup, raised $2.7m in seed funding led by Silverton Partners. axios.link/4gsoI6o

• Island, a Dallas provider of secure enterprise browsers, is raising new funding at a $4.5b valuation, per Bloomberg. Last year it raised a $175m Series D round led by Coatue at a $3b valuation. axios.link/42U5FPr

• BC Partners, Permira, and TPG each bid for Sicit Group, an Italian biochemical company owned by NB Renaissance Partners, per Sole 24 Ore. The company could fetch around €1b. axios.link/4gAQQ7g

⚡ EQT, KKR, and Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners each bid on at least a stake in Australian renewables producer Zenith Energy from Pacific Equity Partners, per The Australian. zenithenergy.com.au

• EverSmith Brands, a portfolio company of The Riverside Co., acquired The Seals Franchising, a franchisor of refrigeration gasket replacement services for commercial kitchens. eversmithbrands.com

• Fourshore Partners acquired Palm Coast Sales, a Jupiter, Fla.,-based wholesale distributor of outdoor kitchen appliances. palmcoastsales.net

• Global Infrastructure Partners and HRL Morrison & Co. are weighing bids for Princeton Digital Group, a data center operator backed by Warburg Pincus, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3EzqjKA

• MBK Partners agreed to lead a $660m acquisition of Japanese semiconductor maker FCIT. Other participants include Formfactor (Nasdaq: FORM). axios.link/42QiPNc

• Multiples will invest around $200m to acquire control stake in QBurst, a Chantilly, Va.-based product development and consulting company. qburst.com

🌍 Tiger Infrastructure Partners acquired a control stake in Bolder Industries, a circular-economy infrastructure platform for the rubber, plastic and petrochemical industries. Bolder had raised over $80m from firms like CIM Group and Crestwood Energy. bolderindustries.com

Eight companies plan to go public on U.S. exchanges this week, led by SailPoint, Karman Holdings, Northpointe Bancshares, and Aardvark Therapeutics. axios.link/40XkXQS

• Real Asset Acquisition, a SPAC led by Peter Ort (Cambium Capital, filed for a $150m IPO. axios.link/40SYRP5

🚑 Sionna Therapeutics, a Waltham, Mass.-based maker of therapies for cystic fibrosis, raised $191m in its IPO and closed up nearly 39% in its first day of trading. The company priced 10.6m shares at $18, versus plans to offer 18m shares at $16-$18, listed on the Nasdaq (SION), and had raised $149m from investors including RA Capital (29.2%), TPG Growth (17.4%), and Atlas Ventures (11.4%). axios.link/4aJoC98

🚑 Crown Laboratories completed its $924m acquisition of Revance Therapeutics (Nasdaq: RVNC), a Nashville maker of anti-wrinkle injections whose backers include Greenspring Associates, Montreux Growth Partners, and Hildred Capital Partners. axios.link/3YJivOa

• Mizuho Financial (NYSE: MFG) is in talks to buy a 63% stake in Indian investment bank Avendus Capital from KKR, per Bloomberg. axios.link/42O0MXS

• PAI Partners is seeking to sell Euro Ethnic Foods, a French grocer that could fetch around €1.5b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/42P3oER

• Shackleton acquired Harrold Financial Planning, a British financial advisor and wealth manager with £300m in AUM. axios.link/3EqIn9q

• Solina, a portfolio company of Astorg, acquired Sokol, a Countryside, Ill.-based maker of savory and sweet sauces, from Burlington Capital. axios.link/3Q7BcWt

⚡ United Energy (HK: 467) acquired Houston-based Apex International, a MENA-focused oil and gas E&P, from Bluewater for $150m. axios.link/4172rGF

🚑 Vitabiotics, a British vitamins purveyor that could be worth around £1b, is reviving sale plans, per Bloomberg. axios.link/415eHYq

• Conduent (Nasdaq: CNDT), a BPO business that spun out of Xerox in 2017, is exploring a sale, per Reuters. Its market cap is around $700m. axios.link/3WSHL2U

🚑 Gerresheimer, a listed German medical packaging firm, hired bankers to explore a sale, per Bloomberg. axios.link/436UqDp

• Hyatt Hotels (NYSE: H) agreed to acquire Playa Hotels & Resorts (Nasdaq: PLYA) for $2.6b in cash, or $13.50 per share. axios.link/4jOMxbs

• Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) is weighing a bid for Formula One's broadcasting rights, per the NY Times. axios.link/3CNczLx

🥂 Pernod Ricard (Paris: PERP) is seeking to sell champagne brand G.H. Mumm, per Reuters. axios.link/4jRIco0

• Guillaume Bayol joined Trilantic Europe as a London-based partner and head of the firm's energy transition fund. He previously was with Oaktree. axios.link/4169jnV

• Ben Meyer is joining Inflexion as a partner and head of North America. He previously was with Hg. axios.link/4hMQaNh

• Sally Shin joined Comcast Ventures as a venture partner. She previously was chief strategy officer at United Masters and, before that, in senior roles at NBC News and CNBC. axios.link/419Bm5Z

• William Blair named managing directors John Ivey and B.T. Remmert as co-heads of tech investment banking. williamblair.com

President Trump on Friday announced that Nippon Steel no longer plans to acquire U.S. Steel, sending shares of the Pittsburgh-based company tumbling nearly 6%.

• Trump, who publicly opposed the deal during his campaign, added that Nippon would instead invest "heavily" in U.S. Steel, without providing any specifics.

But, but, but: Neither Nippon Steel nor U.S. Steel are commenting, nor have they dropped a lawsuit that's designed to overturn former President Biden's block of their deal and launch a new CFIUS review.

The bottom line: All of this comes against the backdrop of Trump also claiming he'll introduce new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S.