Axios PM

December 25, 2025
🎄Merry Christmas afternoon! Today's newsletter, edited by Natalie Daher and Andrew Pantazi, is 777 words, a 3-min. read. Thanks to Sheryl Miller for copy editing.
1 big thing: "Returnuary" is upon us
Christmas doesn't end at the tree. For many, it ends at the return counter, Axios' Kelly Tyko reports.
- Why it matters: Americans return tens of billions of dollars' worth of unwanted Christmas gifts every year, turning good intentions into one of retail's biggest money sinks.
📦 The weeks-long surge — dubbed "Returnuary" — stretches well into January, weighing on return counters and shipping networks.
- Stunning stat: For all of 2025, 20%–25% of annual sales are expected to be returned (including 19% of all online sales) — roughly $1 trillion worth of merchandise, returns platform Seel writes from industry estimates.
The most unwanted (and returned) gifts:
- 🧦 Clothing and shoes: Sweaters, socks (yes, socks again) and other wearables are hard to get right on size, fit and personal style.
- 🧣Accessories: Hats, scarves, jewelry — easy to buy, easy to miss the mark.
- 💻 Electronics and gadgets: Duplicates, defects or devices that don't fit real-life needs.
🔄 Between the lines: Many returned items never make it back onto store shelves.
- "Most are never restocked because brands don't have the infrastructure to process them in a cost-effective way," Emily Hosie, founder and CEO of open-box marketplace REBEL, told Axios.
💬 "The No. 1 reason for returns is that you got the wrong size," Bobby Ghoshal, CEO and co-founder of AI shopping platform Dupe.com, told Axios. "People are really particular about how their items fit."
- "If you're causing your daughter-in-law to run extra errands to the mall with three kids in tow to exchange a sweatshirt, she may not be as grateful as you would expect," Ghoshal said.
🛍️ What's next: Retailers are betting AI can shrink, but not eliminate, the volume of returns.
- 73% of consumers say AI will make them less likely to return products, compared to 69% last year, according to a Talkdesk holiday survey.
2. 🦌 Reindeer population shrinks
It's getting harder to find Rudolph playing reindeer games, and researchers say climate change may be to blame, Axios' Josephine Walker reports.
- The big picture: Reindeer aren't just holiday icons. They're a cornerstone species in Arctic ecosystems, supporting biodiversity by feeding on some plants and shaping how others grow.
📉 By the numbers: The global reindeer (caribou) population has plunged about 67% in three decades, falling from roughly 5.5 million to 1.88 million, according to NOAA's Arctic Report Card.
Reindeer have survived dramatic climate shifts since the Ice Age. But new research suggests today's warming poses an unprecedented threat to Santa's travel companions.
3. ⚡️ Catch me up
- 🎄Pope Leo XIV delivered his first Christmas message, calling for global peace and highlighting suffering in Gaza, Ukraine, Yemen and elsewhere. The U.S.-born pontiff urged sympathy for immigrants worldwide, and for "those who have lost their jobs and those who are looking for work, like so many young people who struggle to find employment." Go deeper.
- 🌊 California's Christmas storm dumped record rainfall across the state, flooding highways, knocking out power to 150,000 customers, and forcing evacuations in multiple counties. Nearly 40 million people remain under flood watches through Friday. Go deeper.
- 🎰 A Powerball player who bought a lucky ticket outside Little Rock, Ark., won $1.82 billion in the Christmas Eve drawing — the second-largest jackpot in U.S. history. It's the first Powerball jackpot winner since September. Get the latest.
- 🇭🇳 Trump-backed candidate Nasry Asfura was declared the winner of Honduras' presidential election, ending weeks of delays and fraud allegations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio quickly congratulated him on the "clear electoral victory." Read more.
4. 🎶 1 music thing: Top 2026 trends
Next year's top tunes will hinge on how labels, platforms and artists balance innovation with retro sounds, Axios' Maxwell Millington writes.
- Execs from iHeart Radio and Amazon Music told Axios which trends they expect to see next year:
1. 🎤 The early 2000s band craze will return.
- Case in point: Netflix released two competition shows in 2025, "Simon Cowell: The Next Act" and "Building the Band." Both focused on creating the next music group sensation.
- The K-pop-influenced girl group Katseye burst onto the scene this year, earning two Grammy nominations and a spot as TikTok's Global Artist of the Year.
2. 👯♂️ Pop A-listers will dominate the charts.
- Olivia Dean, a British soul pop singer-songwriter, "is going to be one of the biggest breakout artists in 2026," predicts Tom Poleman, iHeartMedia's chief programming officer.
- Fans should brace for releases from heavyweights, including Olivia Rodrigo, Harry Styles, Bruno Mars and BTS.
3. ⚠️ AI lines will be drawn: Debates over AI's role in music will intensify — with streaming platforms increasingly forced to take clear stances on how AI is used.
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