In a metro area synonymous with explosive growth in recent decades, Buckeye stands out as the Valley's biggest boomtown.

The big picture: Over the past quarter-century, Buckeye, once a sleepy farming town on the outskirts of metro Phoenix, has become one of the fastest-growing cities not only in Arizona but in the United States.

By the numbers: From 1940 to 2000, Buckeye's population grew from 1,305 to 6,537.

• The early 2000s housing boom inflated the population to nearly 51,000 in 2010 and more than 91,000 in 2020.
• Today, Buckeye has about 120,000 residents, Mayor Eric Orsborn tells Axios.

The intrigue: Rick West, president of the development company Carefree Partners, predicted that Buckeye's population will hit 1.5 million in 50 years.

• The rapidly growing East Valley is hemmed in by federal land and Native American reservations, but there are no such limitations in Buckeye and the West Valley.

Zoom out: Buckeye has more than enough room to grow. Its city limits stretch from near Wittmann in the north almost to Gila Bend in the south.

• Most of its 639-square-mile planning area is uninhabited desert.

1 long road: The Sun Valley Parkway, once known as the "Road to Nowhere," runs north from Interstate 1-10 around the western side of the White Tank Mountains and connects to Bell Road in Surprise.

• The four-lane road weaves through miles of empty desert within Buckeye's city limits, an area that Orsborn said could someday be home to as many as 750,000 people.
• The incoming Teravalis community from development company Howard Hughes that broke ground along Sun Valley Parkway in 2022 could eventually have 300,000 residents.

Explore Buckeye

Buckeye is missing one key ingredient to continue its astounding growth — water.

Catch up quick: In 2023, Gov. Katie Hobbs announced the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) would halt groundwater certifications for new housing subdivisions in rapidly growing Buckeye and Queen Creek.

• State law requires new subdivisions in urban areas to prove they have 100-year water supplies.
• Based on an ADWR study, Arizona no longer grants those certifications in Buckeye based on groundwater alone, largely closing to the door to new housing development.

Why it matters: The policy bombshell means Buckeye must find other water supplies before most homebuilding can resume.

• "We've lost two years' worth of homebuilding and infrastructure being put in place," Orsborn told Axios.

Reality check: There are about 10,000 unbuilt homes in Buckeye that already have 100-year certificates from before the 2023 restrictions.

• Yes, but: Many of those are "stranded," Orsborn said, explaining the certified homes can't be built without new infrastructure that developers can't afford until other new houses are approved.

Between the lines: Orsborn said Buckeye has expanded its water portfolio through methods like recharging wastewater and buying water from the nearby Harquahala basin.

What's next

Farming has been integral to Buckeye since its 1888 founding, but the city's transformation has left its agricultural heritage in peril.

Flashback: Jerry Rovey's family moved to the Valley in 1912, and he was about 14 years old when he moved to Buckeye after famed developer John F. Long bought the family farm in Glendale.

• Carrie Mayfield's husband's family purchased their Buckeye farm in the late '60s, and bought it from their in-laws in 1996.

State of play: In addition to his farm, Rovey works about 3,000 acres of a neighbor's. But that land is slated for development.

Yes, but: There are mixed feelings in the farming community as Buckeye's agricultural property disappear because the city's transformation also presents opportunity.

• Mayfield said many farmers have long struggled, and when they sell to developers they're able to support themselves and leave an inheritance.

The bottom line: Mayfield thinks there's still a future for farming in Buckeye, but not necessarily a long one.

The future of farming

🚨 Eastbound Interstate 10 was closed west of the Valley for more than 16 hours over the weekend after a multi-vehicle accident near Tonopah left four people dead and hospitalized eight others. Department of Public Safety troopers are investigating whether blowing dust was a factor in the collision. (AZcentral)

🌄 Gov. Katie Hobbs said she won't use state resources to minimize long lines at the Grand Canyon caused by the Trump administration's firing of National Park Service workers. (KJZZ)

🏠 A new 200-unit affordable housing complex opened in Buckeye last week. It was funded by Maricopa County with American Rescue Plan Act dollars. (KTAR)

Knowledge is power, and we believe in empowering our community through reliable, local journalism.

Join our membership program for just $50+ a year, and you can support our efforts to keep you in the know of what's happening around town.

• You'll get insider notes and other perks as a thanks.

Together, we can ensure our neighbors stay informed.

As the city's population grows, restaurants, retail and entertainment amenities will follow, but for now, there are plenty of cool spots in town.

• We asked for some recommendations, and here's what we've got.

🍔 The Sheep Camp: Opened in 1984, the Sheep Camp's menu features classic diner staples with a taste of old Buckeye as it was before it became the Valley's fastest-growing suburb.

🌮 Barbon Asadero: This new addition to Buckeye's restaurant scene from the owners of Tacos Barbon touts itself as "not your average taco."

🍨 Gelato Tavern: Indulge your sweet tooth and grab a cup of coffee in historic downtown.

⛰ Skyline Regional Park: Hit the trails and explore nature's beauty from this park at the southern end of the White Tank Mountains.

🐎 Buckeye Equestrian and Events Center: Arizona's Western heritage is alive and well, so come check out some rodeo action.

👚 Screws and Sparkles: Clothing, vintage items and handmade goods in the heart of historic downtown.

👀 Hidden Lake: Buckeye's aquatic hotspot is closed to the public until further notice due to construction of the lake's "next phase," but they say they "have amazing things in the works."

• Orbsorn tells Axios, "They're working on a development that is going to be probably pretty big news moving forward. "