No silver bullet

🤏 Shrinking to grow

🔄 Exclusive: Which services churn

🔌 Streaming's anti-cable problem

🦚 Peacock pushes packages

⛹️‍♂️ Live sports edge

🍿 Breaking the binge

The third phase of the streaming wars has arrived. Now that most services are scaled (phase one) and profitable (phase two), media companies must use streaming to accelerate other parts of their businesses where they have a competitive edge against Netflix.

Why it matters: Consumer spending on video has plateaued since the pandemic, and ads aren't expected to meaningfully offset those declines in the near term.

Even Netflix — which has eyed expansions into gaming, licensing and live events — recognizes the growth limitations of a business built solely on streaming revenue.

📈 By the numbers: While direct-to-consumer revenue has consistently grown to become a larger part of each major media company's portfolio over the past five years, most entertainment giants still make most of their money from other businesses. That's not expected to change any time soon, if ever.

Disney's revenue mostly comes from experiences (38%) and sports (18%).

Comcast/NBCUniversal makes most of its money (63%) from internet services and connectivity platforms.

Apple and Amazon view streaming as a way to sell more hardware devices and Prime subscriptions, respectively.

Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery's businesses are still mostly reliant on TV and movies.

Their merger is expected to make them less dependent on television and more formidable in streaming, but they still face heavy competition from Netflix.

Data: Company filings; Note: ViacomCBS rebranded as Paramount Global in 2022 and later combined with Skydance in 2025; Warner Bros. Discovery was created from the merger of WarnerMedia and Discovery in 2022; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Yes, but: For traditional media companies, streaming offers an opportunity to optimize traditional TV ads — which are still relevant to marketers — in a way that Netflix can't.

Paramount, for example, launched streaming fixed units so an ad can appear in a specific position in an episode of a show.

📺 Context: Traditional firms have invested more in ad-supported services like Paramount with Pluto and Fox with Tubi.

"Every major media, tech, streaming company is racing to becoming an AI-powered advertising operating system," Activate CEO Michael Wolf says.

The big picture: Cheaper bundles and ad-supported options have made it easier for consumers to access more services at once, making them loyal to content rather than specific streamers.

"No consumer sits down and says, 'I'm going to stream today,'" Digitas chief media and investment officer Liane Nadeau says. "They want to watch what they want to watch."

State of play: In response, entertainment giants are transforming their streamers into hubs and incubators for franchises that can be monetized outside of the living room through merchandise, licensing and live experiences.

👽 Disney's "The Mandalorian" created a breakout character, Grogu — widely known as Baby Yoda — that has helped sell plush toys, backpacks and clothing along with theme park tickets.

🎶 Netflix's animated hit "Kpop Demon Hunters" led to chart-topping hits, high demand for HUNTR/X merchandise and soon a global concert tour.

🪷 WBD's "The White Lotus" fueled hotel tourism, luxury brand collaborations and plenty of social media conversation and memes.

What to watch: The industry's key performance indicators are shifting.

Disney and Netflix don't even bother touting subscriber counts anymore.

Comcast/NBCU is framing Peacock, which hasn't reached profitability yet, as a "participatory entertainment platform" designed to help fans engage more deeply with content.

1 big thing: No silver bullet

Photo illustration of a glitching image of the Mandalorian and Grogu framed by a progression of rectangles with a screen line pattern.

Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photo: Stephane Cardinale/Corbis via Getty Images

Streaming companies are betting that smaller can be bigger as they invest in shorter videos.

Why it matters: Short-form video is becoming a critical tool for media companies looking to reach younger audiences and attract viewers to their streaming services.

The big picture: Streaming companies once viewed short-form video as simply competition. Now they're actively engaging in the format.

"Whether it's TikTok or Snap or Meta or YouTube, they are also streaming services. It's short-form, but it doesn't make a difference. People are watching them," Activate's Wolf says.

Comscore executive vice president of commercial Tara Gotch says looking only at linear TV or streaming data can obscure the full picture of audience growth. A flagship TV program may be declining on traditional TV while simultaneously growing through digital distribution channels.

"When you take a step back and actually look at the deduplicated reach of that content across all platforms, you may start to get a totally different story," Gotch says.

📱 State of play: Media companies recently have been investing in building vertical video experiences inside their own apps.

Disney introduced "Verts," a vertical video hub in the ESPN app last year. It expanded the format to Disney+ this year, focused on teasing shows to watch. 

Netflix launched its "Clips" feed on its mobile app. The feed provides "a personalized highlight reel that helps you decide what to watch or play next, without endless scrolling."

🤳 What to watch: Streaming companies are commissioning original short-form content designed for mobile viewing.

ViX MicrOs has generated more than 1 billion views since launching last year, TelevisaUnivision's ad sales chief John Kozack says. Its most popular title, "El Regreso de la Heredera Fugitiva," drew more than 160 million views. Viewership has grown 48% quarter over quarter.

NBCU announced last month it's bringing microdramas to Peacock, starting with two Bravo titles called "Campus Confidential: Miami" and "Salon Confessionals with Madison LeCroy."

Fox Entertainment partnered with Dhar Mann Studios for scripted vertical video series.

2. 🤏 Shrinking to grow

Illustration of a glitching hand holding a remote control, framed by and pointing it at a series of shrinking rectangular screen shapes with a screen line pattern.

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

Data: Magid; Note: Note: Big 8 includes Apple TV, Disney+, HBO Max, Hulu, Netflix, Paramount+, Peacock and Amazon Prime Video. Mid-tier general entertainment services include AMC+, Cinemax, Discovery+, MGM+, Starz. Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Niche streaming services — which include apps like Crunchyroll, BritBox, and BET+ — have 60% higher resubscription rates in the U.S. than big general entertainment services like Netflix and Disney+, according to Magid.

✂️ Why it matters: These types of services are episodic, event-driven complements to bigger streamers. While their subscribers are the most likely to churn, they are also most likely to resubscribe.

Churn occurs when a consumer cancels a subscription, or allows their subscription to lapse after a payment type is canceled or a credit card expires.

Zoom in: Compared with mid-tier general entertainment services, such as Starz or AMC+, niche services are 21% more likely to resubscribe at least once after canceling.

Big general entertainment streamers have the highest retention rates at 75%, and they also have the lowest resubscription rates. 

The big picture: The U.S. subscription streaming industry has reached a state of maturity where growth is no longer driven by acquiring net new customers, but rather by stealing incremental share from rivals, per Magid CEO Brent Magid.

This has caused a higher rate of volatility in the streaming market, and a small portion of U.S. subscription streamers drive most of that fluctuation.

That group, which Magid calls "hypers," represents 14% of the U.S. subscription streaming population, but drives 40% of subscription sign-ups and 30% of closures each month. 

Between the lines: "Hypers" are the fastest-growing population of subscription streamers in the U.S., per the data.

On average, this group subscribed to far more services at least once last year (8.4), compared with "mainstream" users (3.6).

🤑 What to watch: While price hikes and new ad-supported tiers are also fueling growth, most big streamers have concluded that moderate churn in response to lucrative price hikes is an acceptable trade-off.

3. 🔄 Exclusive: Which services churn

Data: Axios research; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

The early days of streaming offered relief from expensive cable packages. Now, many consumers are paying more to cut the cord.

Why it matters: Analysts don't foresee a single cable-like bundle emerging from the streaming industry anytime soon.

Instead, TV operating systems and connected TV platforms are making it easier for consumers to navigate multiple subscriptions and discover content in one place, while still paying for several smaller bundles.

State of play: Operating systems like Comcast's Xfinity X1, Google's Android TV and Roku OS have started to build universal search functionality, unified watchlists and livestreaming integrations into their platforms.

Comcast, which owns one of the country's largest connectivity businesses, has taken a very aggressive approach to this strategy.

Last year, it launched StreamStore within Xfinity, allowing consumers to discover, purchase and manage paid subscriptions through a single smart TV interface.

💸 By the numbers: Subscription prices have steadily increased, pushing more consumers toward ad-supported tiers and bundles.

The eight biggest subscription video streaming platforms have, on average, raised prices by $7.31 since they first launched. For the three biggest music streamers, prices have increased by $2 on average.

What to watch: Analysts believe that in order for the video industry to meaningfully grow, its economics would need to favor cooperation via a streamlined bundle instead of competition among individual services. They don't see that happening anytime soon.

4. 🔌 Streaming's anti-cable problem

Data: Axios research; Note: Not repeating with ads or without ads; Not including credit card statement credits. Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Peacock, Starz and HBO Max offer more discounted streaming bundles in the U.S. than other major services, according to an Axios analysis.

Why it matters: Organic subscriber growth is nearly impossible now that the sector has reached a saturation point.

🪙 State of play: Bundles attract cost-conscious consumers and reduce churn, expanding streamers' scale as they prioritize profitability.

Peacock bundled with Apple TV, for example, offers savings of more than 37%. Apple TV costs $12.99 per month and Peacock Premium (with ads) is $10.99 per month — that's $23.98 in total, whereas the bundle is $14.99 per month.

Bundles account for 28% of all new streaming subscriptions, double their share in 2024, according to Antenna data cited by the New York Times.

By the numbers: According to an Axios analysis, there are 65 different bundles among 12 major streaming services available in the U.S.  

Peacock appears in 16 bundles, the most among major streamers, boosted by nine deals within its parent company Comcast's Xfinity packages. Its Apple TV bundle is available as a standalone and through Prime Video.

Netflix and Disney+ each have 10. Netflix's bundles run exclusively through intermediaries, including with Xfinity StreamSaver, T-Mobile, Verizon and Frontier. Disney+ offers its own bundles with Hulu and ESPN and also with HBO Max.

Between the lines: The tally includes bundles offering a streaming service for free, or at a discount, for at least six months.

Fox One was not included due to the scale of its partnerships with multichannel video programming distributors (MVPDs). ESPN has a bundle with Fox One.

Zoom in: Peacock expanded into selective bundle partnerships and channel stores after initially focusing on direct selling, says NBCU president of platform distribution and partnerships Matt Schnaars.

"Like every company who's launching into a new market, you eventually start to think about market expansion," Schnaars says. "There's opportunity now in platforms that aggregate apps and ingested apps to tap into next-level growth."

🤝 Zoom out: Most bundles run through telecom companies like Comcast and Verizon and aggregators like Amazon and Roku rather than direct streamer-to-streamer deals. 

Live TV companies are experimenting with genre packs. For example, DirecTV offers MyEntertainment, which provides Disney+, Hulu and HBO Max.

"Our goal has always been to give viewers access to the content they care about without having to pay for what they don't," DirecTV's chief advertising sales officer Amy Leifer says.

What to watch: Successful deals could yield more direct streamer-to-streamer bundle experiments.

Data from Antenna suggests the Disney+, Hulu and HBO Max bundle outpaced the three-month retention of new sign-ups significantly for each standalone service.

5. 🦚 Peacock pushes packages

Data: eMarketer; Note: The data includes ads that run across live sports TV content, as well as time-shifted content, like DVR recordings of live TV events. Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Sports has emerged as the media industry's clearest growth engine as streaming matures. 

Why it matters: Live sports not only attract subscribers but also fuel premium ad dollars and engagement across companies' broader content ecosystems.

🏀 Follow the money: "Sports as a reach driver and as a, frankly, high-attention viewing appointment is still far and away one of the biggest and the best," Digitas' Nadeau says.

By the numbers: Sports TV advertising is projected to grow from about $19.5 billion this year to nearly $25 billion by 2030, per Emarketer.

While linear TV remains the largest piece of that ad market, connected TV's share is expected to rise from $3.5 billion to more than $7 billion over that same period.

The big picture: For media companies, sports aren't just valuable on their own. They can help power the rest of the business.

Paramount chief revenue officer Jay Askinasi says sports rights serve as a "big funnel" that drives subscriber acquisition, marketing opportunities and viewership across the broader ecosystem.

"The NFL for us on Sundays is the most valuable inventory," Askinasi says. "But it's also a huge feeder for our subsequent programming and the ability for us to market our flywheel."

Sports rights are also helping expand demographics. The average age of new Paramount+ subscribers for the UFC is 15 years younger than the streaming service's existing audience, Askinasi says.

💰 State of play: Streaming companies are spending aggressively on sports rights despite pressure to improve profitability.

Peacock is set to stream more than 8,400 hours of live sports this year, sports commentator Mike Tirico said during NBCUniversal's Upfront presentation. Comcast reported Peacock's losses for the fourth quarter increased 48% year over year as rights fees for the NBA kicked in.

Paramount+ acquired the U.S. rights to UFC last year for $7.7 billion over seven years, adding to its roster of NFL games, major golf tournaments like the Masters, college sports and soccer. 

Netflix has expanded from sports documentary programming like "Formula 1: Drive to Survive" into live events, including NFL games, WWE and the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show.

The bottom line: "We're going to continue to invest in major sports because that's what our audience is and that's what our clients want," TelevisaUnivision's Kozack says. "Our strategy for sports is always on."

6. ⛹️‍♂️ Live sports edge

Data: Parrot Analytics; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

2021 marked the first year that weekly releases outnumbered binge drops across major U.S. subscription streaming services, according to data from Parrot Analytics. 

Why it matters: Binge watching was critical in ushering broad adoption of subscription streaming. Now, even Netflix recognizes that appointment viewing drives fandom and reduces churn.

"The more you can create a pattern to create some sort of engagement to really take up an hour in someone's household each week, I think the more that program ignites the fandom," Digitas' Nadeau says.

Zoom in: The number of full-season binge drops has declined sharply as streamers begin to experiment more with weekly releases and increasingly, new models that offer something in between.

Netflix released the final season of "Cobra Kai" across three drops in 2024 and 2025 after doing full-season binge releases for the previous five seasons. "The Crown" similarly released in two parts instead of all at once.

Recent seasons of shows like "Bridgerton," "Stranger Things," "Wednesday" and "The Witcher" were all released in batches.

The big picture: Separate research from academics at Carnegie Mellon University found that release strategies significantly impact profits.

The study noted a gradual release schedule increases the number of visits to a subscription service, which also exposes consumers to more content.

"They look around and explore the catalog more than they would otherwise," the study's co-author Pedro Ferreira tells Axios. 

The bottom line: Binge drops force streamers to invest more in new content to encourage consumers to return, and that's an expensive problem, per Ferreira.

Staggered releases have proven powerful from an engagement and business perspective.

Axios

Axios Media Trends Executive

June 13, 2026

1 big thing: No silver bullet