The S&P 500 was on track to hit a new record on Friday, but then sank when President Trump announced the termination of trade talks with Canada over a controversial digital services tax.

• Within an hour, investors decided not to care, and stocks closed at an all-time high for the first time since February.

Why it matters: Wall Street is largely post-tariff. The market is a forward-looking machine, and it's already priced in better-than-expected trade deals before they are signed.

What they're saying: Headline-driven volatility is a given under this administration, so don't let it affect your portfolio, advisors say. (Example A: Canada scrapped the aforementioned tax last night.)

• Jay Pelosky of TPW Advisors says he pays "no attention" to tariff policy anymore.
• Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, indicated that Trump may be "outsmarting everyone" in a recent note, arguing any extension of the 90-day tariff pause, which Trump has signaled, would decrease uncertainty.
• Lower uncertainty is good news for both businesses and investors.
• Friday's action was "reflecting the improved investor sentiment and overall investor confidence," says Mike Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategies at Horizon Investments.

Zoom in: There are several bullish signals that strategists would rather focus on than tariffs, which fueled the 19% drop in stocks just a couple months ago.

• Expectations are building around the "big, beautiful bill" being passed sooner rather than later, which could be a fresh catalyst.
• Recent declines in the dollar may be a long-term risk, but for now, this could be a cushion that drives earnings beats across the big tech names.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent continues to pitch an economic agenda built on a three-legged stool — tax, trade and deregulation — as investors salivate over the prospect of looser government oversight.

Reality check: Economists caution a slowdown in consumer spending, which is already happening, could worsen as tariff-driven inflation takes full effect.

• It will be another couple of months until we know how much increased tariffs have affected inflation, according to Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist at RSM US.
• "It's summer silly season," says Brusuelas, who cautions investors that FOMO drives positive sentiment while risks remain.
• He argues a reassessment of valuations will come when, not if, the data shows further tariff impacts.

The other side: Some hyper-optimistic strategists may argue a slowdown in consumer spending off the back of higher prices is bullish since there could be a subsequent rebound if trade deals are struck.

• Spending slowed when uncertainty was at a record high. If uncertainty wanes, maybe spending roars right back. The argument clashes directly with the idea that the tariff-driven inflation is just beginning.

The bottom line: Consensus is building around the idea that investors can stomach headline volatility around policy uncertainty, but they can't afford to miss out on the rallies that come after.

While bulls are cheering the stock market record, it's flimsy compared with gains in the rest of the world.

Why it matters: Trump's flip-flop on trade with Canada on Friday is the type of policy volatility foundational to the Sell America trade, which is still driving gains in markets outside of the U.S

• Strategists see more room to run in the shift to international stocks.

By the numbers: Take a look at the performance of some foreign indices year to date.

• The German DAX is up 20%. The Chinese Hang Seng Index is up 24%.
• Even Canadian stocks are mildly outpacing U.S. gains, up nearly 7% this year compared to the 5% gain in the S&P 500.

What they're saying: A rotation out of the U.S. into the rest of the world, particularly to Europe and individual countries offering stimulative economic policies, is the consensus for the second half of this year.

• "The U.S. itself no longer the safe haven that it was in the past 20 years," says Pelosky of TPW Advisors.
• And it's not just that the U.S. is fading. The "aggressive fiscal stimulus" adopted by the rest of the world is set to drive further earnings growth elsewhere, he says.

Yes, but: Thanks to big tech, most banks have maintained an overweight rating on both U.S. and European stocks through year end.

• About half of the gains in the S&P are driven by large-cap tech names.
• You don't have to believe in the entire U.S. to own the S&P. You may just have to believe in the tech trade. That trade is expected to be buoyed by continued earnings growth, cushioned by declines in the U.S. dollar.

The bottom line: As much as investors have talked about going outside of the U.S., they are still clearly bullish on America, driving the S&P to a new record on a day of soft economic data and mixed trade headlines.

Global chief financial officers and investors are bracing for different realities in the second half of 2025, per a new survey from advisory firm Teneo.

Why it matters: The divide between Wall Street and the C-suite — which has better first-hand knowledge of company fundamentals that drive earnings — could be a signal that investors are trading on vibes more than reality.

By the numbers: While 78% of money managers expect the global economy to improve in the back half of the year, per Teneo, only 43% of CFOs agree.

Between the lines: The CFOs surveyed are making significant moves following consistent policy shifts from the Trump administration.

• 86% are adjusting supply chains in response to economic challenges including tariffs, 84% report recent and continued changes to hiring, and nearly 25% are lowering earnings guidance due to policy uncertainty.

Zoom out: The decisions CFOs are making could affect not just individual company profits, but also the economic data driving decisions made by the Federal Reserve.

• 81% of CFOs surveyed report changes to administrative expenses, which include labor. If executives are trimming workers, hours offered, salaries or other personnel spending, that could show up in labor market data.

Yes, but: Capital expenditures remain strong, with half of the CFOs surveyed saying artificial intelligence is the driving force behind increased spending.

• This could be a signal that executives are cutting costs in some parts of the business to fund tech expansion in others.
• Tech disruption was also cited as the main catalyst for mergers and acquisitions, per the 132 global CFOs surveyed.

The intrigue: Only 7% of CFOs ranked buybacks as their first priority in terms of capital allocation, compared with 26% of investors. But S&P 500 buybacks actually hit a quarterly record in Q1 of 2025, per Charles Schwab.

The bottom line: While investors are leaning into the market rally, CFOs may be more cautious, hedging against policy uncertainty or economic slowdown while eyeing AI as an opportunity they can't afford to miss.