Workers, especially those with a college degree, think the job market is awful, a new Gallup analysis out today finds.

Why it matters: They could be on to something. Although the unemployment rate is relatively low at the moment, hiring has slowed a lot, particularly for professionals.

• Deteriorating worker sentiment can signal that things are about to get much worse.
• "Workers with higher levels of formal education were markedly less optimistic about the job market in 2025 than those with less schooling," writes Sarah Fioroni, a senior research consultant at Gallup.

The big picture: Labor market stress is just one of many looming known unknowns in a chaotic moment for the economy and markets.

• Oil prices are climbing, a private credit tantrum is in play, and AI disruption is everywhere.
• Worries over stagflation are now part of most Wall Street investor notes on the economic outlook.

By the numbers: In separate polling of U.S. adults from Gallup, conducted from Jan. 2-17, just 27% of college grads said now is a good time to find a quality job, compared with 44% of those who didn't graduate from college.

• That's the widest gap on record going back to 2001.
• Until 2024, those with more advanced degrees were more optimistic.
• (The report out this morning finds a similar gap, citing a different survey of U.S. workers, with only 19% of college-educated employees saying it's a good time to find a quality job, compared with 35% of employees without a college degree.)

Zoom in: Sentiment among the college-educated about the job market is at its lowest since 2013.

• That was a time when the U.S. was still slowly climbing back from a recession. The unemployment rate was more than 6%. (This past February, unemployment was at 4.4%.)

Between the lines: But the critical factor to watch is the hiring rate. Outside of the blip we had during the pandemic, hiring is at its worst level since 2013, per federal data.

Where it stands: In white-collar industries, however, hiring is even worse, says Cory Stahle, an economist at Indeed, the jobs site.

• There were 29% fewer job listings for software developers in March than there were before the pandemic, per Indeed data.
• There were 27% fewer marketing jobs — and 36% fewer listings for media and communications roles.
• Job listings in manufacturing, meanwhile, are up. So are help wanted ads for doctors. "You see a real bifurcation," Stahle says.

Zoom out: Professionals are worried over the decline in white-collar hiring, reports of professional sector layoffs and, of course, AI.

What to watch: "If we continue to see fewer jobs available and more people wanting jobs, those things are a recipe for unemployment," Stahle says.

• That's also a recipe for lower economic growth.

"Most educated people I know are pretty freaked about what AI means for their jobs," says Martha Gimbel, executive director and cofounder of the Budget Lab at Yale.

• "We can argue about whether or not that's going to happen, but that's not what fear is about."

Reality check: Firing rates are still relatively low. Gimbel points out that the deteriorating worker sentiment could be part of an overall "vibecession" — when people feel bad about the economy while the overall economy holds up fine.

Gold's lost its luster in the war — prices are now back about to where they were at the start of the year.

Why it matters: This might seem weird, since some investors see the shiny metal — which really has almost no practical use — as a safe haven in times of stress.

Zoom in: Alas, no. At a riskier moment, investors are selling.

• "Gold is right now trading like a risk asset, as it has during most broad risk-off events over the past two decades," Citi analysts wrote in a note yesterday.

Between the lines: It could also be that the prospect of higher yields, driven by inflation concerns, are making it less attractive to hold gold, which doesn't pay any yield.

• Or retail investors, who drove the price up, per Citi research, might be losing interest.

What to watch: One other explanation is cropping up — countries aren't as interested in buying up gold for their exchange reserves at a moment when they need to deal with a massive oil shock.

• "This is the time for oil importers to be spending reserves, not accumulating more—and if they aren't adding reserves, it's much harder for them to buy gold," writes James Mackintosh in the Wall Street Journal.

The stocks of U.S. companies that export liquefied natural gas are surging as the world struggles to make up for lost supply due to the Iran war.

The big picture: 20% of the world's LNG supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and some key infrastructure will be slow to come back online even once it reopens — U.S. suppliers are protected from the situation.

Zoom in: QatarEnergy estimated that damage from Iranian strikes on its Ras Laffan site will take years to fully repair.

• "U.S. LNG exporters should benefit from the tighter macro, as well as the increased diversification," Jefferies analysts said in a note.

The big picture: The U.S. is already the world's largest LNG shipper, and a wave of new supply is coming online in the years ahead from companies like NextDecade.

What they're saying: "All U.S. LNG projects are now in play. Even Alaska," said Ira Joseph, a gas market expert with Columbia University's energy think tank.

• He's referring to the highly uncertain proposed Alaska pipeline and LNG proposal.

What we're watching: There are crosscurrents for U.S. exporters.

• Analysts see higher costs potentially boosting gas-to-coal switching and renewables among Asian and European importers.