Axios Markets

February 11, 2026
🌅 Good morning! There's something for everyone today: Japanese stocks, tote bag commentary and some worrying news on mortgages.
All in 964 words, a 3.5-minute read, but first:
The delayed January employment report will be out at 8:30am ET, and our colleagues at Axios Macro will be all over it.
- The median estimate is that 75,000 jobs were added last month, and the unemployment rate is forecast at 4.4%, per FactSet.
1 big thing: Why Japanese stocks are outshining the U.S. market


The reelection of Japan's popular prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, earlier this week pushed the country's long-languishing stock market to new heights.
Why it matters: The Nikkei is just one of the foreign stock indexes beating the major U.S. benchmarks this year — as investors "Sell America" and look to buy elsewhere in the world.
Catch up quick: The "buy something outside America" trend is more than a year in the making.
- In the first half of last year, more money was going into European markets, while interest rose in emerging markets in the second half, says Indrani De, head of global investment research at FTSE Russell.
- More recently, the Japanese and South Korean stock markets have surged.
By the numbers: The Nikkei 225 is up 49% over the last 12 months, compared with 15% for the S&P 500.
- Even more eye-popping? Check out South Korea:


Zoom in: The Korea Composite Stock Price Index, the KOSPI, tracks the performance of all the common stocks listed on Korea's exchange.
- It's up 110% over the past year, largely because investors see it as a strong AI play. You can buy AI stocks — particularly in the semiconductor space — at a cheaper valuation than in the U.S., De says.
- Two of the biggest names on the KOSPI: Samsung and SK Hynix, which make memory chips
The big picture: It's not that a big rush of money is leaving U.S. markets; instead, investors are just looking to diversify a bit away from the U.S. at the margins, and other markets are doing better.
- The S&P 500 is up just 1.4% this year so far.
- The MSCI ex-U.S. index, a basket of international stocks that excludes American companies, is up nearly 9% — and last year saw record growth.
Zoom out: The weaker dollar is playing a big role here. Foreign investors who buy stocks with dollars see returns that don't look as great when they cash out and convert back into their own currency.
- But Japan's market story is primarily about politics.
Japan first elected Takaichi last October. She's the first woman to serve as the country's prime minister. After just a few months, she called for a snap election — it was a gamble; prediction markets gave her a 50% chance of winning a simple majority.
- On Sunday, she won a two-thirds supermajority.
- The Nikkei 225 hit new records in the days following her win.
Follow the money: The stock market appears to like Takaichi's aggressive spending proposals, including one that would temporarily suspend sales taxes on food for two years.
- That rhymes with the market reaction to President Trump's reelection, a gain that's largely evaporated as his policy choices have roiled the markets.
The bottom line: Stock markets can fall out of love with political leaders fast.
2. 👜 Hope totes
A woman who runs a country is rare, and one who does it while carrying a handbag, even more so.
- But Takaichi grabbed headlines and mindshare last year when she stepped out with a black leather tote bag — the Grace Delight — made by the Japanese company Hamano.
Where it stands: The bag is now on back order.
Flashback: The last elected woman leader widely known for sporting a handbag? Former U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
- It's not just the tote. Takaichi's pink ballpoint pen and even her fave food (allegedly steamed pork buns) have gone viral.
Zoom in: The 64 year old is popular with younger voters, some calling her "Sana," despite her socially conservative beliefs. Though she's hardly a feminist, just the fact that she isn't a man is ginning up excitement.
The bottom line: Typically, if you're powerful, you travel unencumbered — a sign that you have people for that.
- "The more important the person, the smaller the bag," New York Times columnist Vanessa Friedman wrote last fall.
- "Ms. Takaichi is changing the calculus."
3. 🏠Where mortgage delinquencies are rising


File this away in "everything is K-shaped."
- Mortgage delinquencies remain low overall, but they're climbing quickest in poorer neighborhoods where local economies are starting to crack, the New York Fed finds.
Why it matters: Homeowners in low-income neighborhoods are falling behind on mortgage payments, underscoring an economy-wide trend in which richer households remain resilient while poorer households feel the pain.
By the numbers: In aggregate, roughly 1.3% of mortgage balances became seriously delinquent in the fourth quarter of 2025 — a share that's similar to periods outside of the 2008 financial crisis, the New York Fed said.
- But that masks the deterioration under the hood. 90-day delinquency rates have skyrocketed among borrowers in the lowest-income ZIP codes, rising to 3% in the fourth quarter from 0.5% in 2021, when pandemic aid and policies helped struggling homeowners.
- That's a faster rise than in higher-income neighborhoods, where delinquencies are still historically low.
What to watch: The researchers say consumers are falling behind in areas where home prices are falling, though they find a stronger link between the health of regional job markets and delinquencies.
- The counties with the biggest jumps in unemployment also saw mortgage delinquencies worsen over 2025.
- On the flip side, neighborhoods with more stable (or declining) jobless rates saw a smaller rise in mortgage delinquencies.
I'm liking Sana's tote, but not the price point. If you have cheaper suggestions, story ideas or tips to share, I'm [email protected] or reply to this email.
Thanks to Jeffrey Cane for editing and Katie Lewis for copy editing. See you back here tomorrow!
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