Axios Markets

October 29, 2025
Start preparing the S&P 7,000 hats. Nvidia led the market higher with a slew of announcements and the Federal Reserve is expected to trim interest rates, both of which are key catalysts driving stocks full speed ahead.
- Today: Incomes are now stagnating as layoffs continue to tick up.
- Plus: Federal workers turn to banks for help amid the shutdown.
Let's get into it. All in 960 words in 4 minutes.
1 big thing: Incomes flatline as firms slow spending
Real income growth has slowed to near-decade lows, according to a report from JPMorgan Chase Institute, with young people getting hit the hardest.
Why it matters: As a new wave of companies announce layoffs, a slowdown in income growth is another sign of a softening labor market that could indicate trouble ahead for corporate America.
What they're saying: "Companies might increase wages by less because they're trying to shrink staff," says George Eckerd, research director with JPMorgan Chase Institute, adding that if people don't leave, that is when companies could start laying people off.
- It underscores a broader cooling in the labor market, according to the report, which comes after Amazon laid off 14,000 employees and UPS revealed it cut 48,000 jobs this year.
- The data in the report indicates that even the people who have jobs are struggling to keep pace with inflation.
Between the lines: Wage growth is slowing while inflation continues to rise, which is eroding purchasing power, the data shows.
Threat level: The data indicates that income stagnation is most severe among young people, a demographic that historically provides a signal for the state of the broader labor market.
- Young workers are experiencing the worst income growth since the 2010s as the low-hire, low-fire labor market reduces their pace of job transitions.
- Workers ages 25 to 29 are "underperforming prior generations in terms of the life-cycle income path in recent years," says Chris Wheat, president of the JPMorgan Chase Institute.
Zoom out: This mirrors the unemployment rate for young people, which is above 10%, about double the national average.
- Your 20s are historically the decade with the largest income gains.
- Early career workers tend to switch jobs more frequently while establishing their careers, which leads to higher wages.
- It remains unclear whether young people will have the opportunity to catch up if and when the labor market reaccelerates.
Reality check: It is not as if corporate America is floundering and in need of cost cutting.
- Company earnings indicate 15% aggregate year-over-year growth so far in this third-quarter reporting cycle. Such solid growth came even before the Big Tech companies reported earnings this week.
- Macro research firm TS Lombard says, "Trumpian uncertainty is to blame: for the unusual economic backdrop, as policy uncertainty may be stalling hiring decisions and corporate spending.
The bottom line: Purchasing power is down, especially for young people, as inflation sticks around and companies are in no rush to hire or give raises.
2. Federal workers seek bank loans amid shutdown
USAA has issued more than 90,000 no-interest loans to federal employees affected by the government shutdown, totaling about $328 million. Bank of America is offering credit deferrals and auto loans. Dozens of other banks are offering assistance.
Why it matters: Federal employees are taking banks up on the help in droves, indicating how much assistance workers are seeking after some missed their first full paychecks.
What they're saying: "We've seen a significant number of customers reach out to us on our special care line," a spokesperson with Chase said.
By the numbers: Interest and volume has been "very healthy" at USAA since the relief program began, with total relief hitting just under $350 million, a spokesperson with the bank said.
- Gate City Bank is offering a no-rate loan up to $5,000 with a six-month term where funds are distributed same-day, and the firm has received a steady inflow of interest since the federal spending lapse began.
Between the lines: How long does it take to get one of these loans?
- Baycoast Bank loans range from $1,000 to $15,000 with an estimated turnaround of one to two business days from application approval to funding.
- Civista Bank is offering no-interest loans with no credit check required to be deposited the same day, with the loan amount equal to the customer's most recent paycheck deposit.
The timeline for paying back the loans varies among institutions.
- USAA allows members 60 to 90 days for repayment from the loan issue date, but cites that other institutions require the money back as soon as backpay is issued to the customer.
What to watch: How loan demand develops as the shutdown continues.
- Multiple major banks told Axios they have seen increased demand, but didn't have loan data compiled yet, given the recency of the shutdown.
- Axios reached out to over 20 banks, including every major national bank.
3. Gold flirts with correction territory after record rally


Gold is flirting with correction territory, or a 10% drop from a prior peak, after a record year-to-date rally for the precious metal.
Why it matters: Gold is overbought but underinvested, according to Bank of America, which is endorsing a 60/20/20 portfolio allocation of 60% exposure to stocks, 20% to bonds and 20% to gold.
Reality check: "Gold is the ultimate flight to safety," says Paul Moghtader, a managing director and portfolio manager at Lazard, adding that it was odd to see gold rallying alongside riskier corners of the market before the recent drop.
- The decline in gold alongside the recent rally in stocks is in alignment with the historic performance of both asset classes, and it could allow gold to act as a better hedge if this dislocation continues.
👀 Got tips? Email me at [email protected]. I would love to hear from you about anything that may be of interest for our investor audience.
Thanks to Jeffrey Cane for editing and to Anjelica Tan for copy editing. See you tomorrow!
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