Axios Markets

August 25, 2020
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🎙 “Truth will never start out popular in a world more concerned with marketability than righteousness. It will initially suffer ridicule and even violence — yet ultimately it is undeniable. All of humanity is living in a dream world, but suffering real consequences.” - See who said it and why it matters at the bottom.
1 big thing: Why the Dow made its big changes
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
The Dow Jones Industrial Average announced a major shakeup on Monday after the market closed — it booted Pfizer, Raytheon Technologies and ExxonMobil, the oldest member of the index, having joined in 1928. (GE, the last original member of the Dow, was removed two years ago.)
What happened: Salesforce, Amgen and Honeywell will replace those companies to "help diversify the index ... and adding new types of businesses that better reflect the American economy," S&P Dow Jones Indices said in a note announcing the changes.
- The new companies join the Dow on Aug. 31.
Keep it 💯: The changes seem more reflective of a desire for better-performing stocks than more accurate representation of a changing U.S. economy — the Dow will actually have a lower percentage of tech after the additions.
- Because the Dow is a stock-price-weighed index, Apple's four-to-one stock split would have reduced the Dow's weighting of tech stocks from 27.6% to 20.3%.
- “By adding Salesforce, you can come back to 23.1% of the Dow being in technology,” Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, told CNBC.
Facts: The Dow was designed to measure the strength of the U.S. stock market and economy, but in recent years it has been left in the dust by the tech-heavy Nasdaq.
By the numbers: Over the last five years, the Nasdaq has produced almost double the Dow's gain (151% vs. 78%) and over the last year it has returned nearly five times what the Dow has (47% vs. 10%), per FactSet.
- Year to date, the Nasdaq has risen just under 27% while the Dow remains underwater for 2020.
- The Nasdaq 100, which includes the 100 largest non-finance stocks in the index, is up 33% this year.
Between the lines: Despite recently becoming a net oil exporter, U.S. oil companies' stocks have fared poorly and indexes excluding energy and oil names have tended to outperform those that do include them.
- Energy companies made up as much as a quarter of the Dow in the 1980s, and Exxon remained the most valuable company in the U.S. through much of the early 2000s and as recently as 2011, when it hit a market value of just over $400 billion.
- Apple overtook Exxon in 2012, and today has a market cap over $2 trillion while Exxon's market cap has sunk to $175 billion.
- With Exxon's exit on Monday, energy will account for just 2% of the Dow.
The bottom line: Roughly $31.5 billion of assets are benchmarked to the Dow, and $28.2 billion of passively managed funds, compared to $11.2 trillion and $4.6 trillion for the S&P 500, according to Bloomberg.
2. Catch up quick
The Trump administration is considering bypassing normal U.S. regulatory standards to fast-track an experimental coronavirus vaccine from the U.K. ahead of the presidential election. (FT)
Fed chair Jerome Powell is expected to detail the results of a policy review and announce the central bank’s most active efforts ever to stoke inflation at his Jackson Hole speech Thursday. (CNBC)
TikTok and ByteDance have sued to challenge an order from President Trump prohibiting U.S. residents from doing business with TikTok. (Bloomberg)
Apple is acquiring Spaces, a virtual reality firm that recently pivoted from creating theme park attractions to bringing traditional video conferencing software to VR headsets. (Axios)
Accenture plans to cut at least 25,000 jobs globally with an initial wave of job losses targeting the bottom 5% of employees by performance measures. (Australian Financial Review)
3. Economists see long road back for U.S. economy


Data: NABE; Chart: Axios Visuals
The National Association for Business Economics sees a grim future for the U.S. and global growth over the next two years, with more than 60% predicting U.S. GDP will remain below its 2019 level until at least 2022.
- Only one respondent among the organization's 235 surveyed members expects GDP will reclaim its pre-COVID-19 level in 2020.
Why it matters: Initially expected to be a short-term economic stall, consensus is growing among economists that the slowdown triggered by the pandemic is becoming a protracted weight on the economy that will reduce growth and employment for years.
By the numbers: While 41% of panelists expect U.S. jobs growth to return to its February level sometime in 2022, 34% expect that will not occur before 2023, while just 18% anticipate it happening in 2021.
- The median expectation is that 40% of all business closures as a result of the pandemic will be permanent.
What's next: Most respondents see risks to even this dour outlook as being tilted to the downside, with nearly 80% saying there is at least a one-in-four chance of a double-dip recession.
- 63% say there's a one-in-three chance.
- Nearly half (47%) say there's a one-in-two chance of a double-dip recession.
Of note: The historically right-leaning organization favors the Democrat in this year's presidential election on the economy.
- "A majority of respondents believes that former Vice President Biden would be better at promoting U.S. economic growth than President Trump (62% compared to 25%)."
4. IPO gates open wide for tech firms
A host of niche technology firms announced plans to go public on Monday, led by Unity Software, a San Francisco-based company known for its popular video game engine, Axios' Kia Kokalitcheva and Ina Fried report.
Why it matters: The company's move comes at a time when its main rival, Epic Games' Unreal video games engine, is under a cloud as its parent company faces expulsion from the iOS App Store and is in a court battle to avoid losing access to Apple's developer tools.
By the numbers:
- Revenue: Unity is still unprofitable.
- In 2018, it lost $131.6Â million on $380.8Â million in revenue
- In 2019, it lost $163.2Â million on $541.8Â million in revenue
- In the first six months of 2020, it lost $54.2 million on $351.3 million in revenue.
- In the first six months of 2020, Unity had 716 customers contributing more than $100,000 in annual revenue each.
- The company says it has 1.5 million monthly active creators, whose apps are downloaded 3 billion times per month.
- Unity's top shareholders are Sequoia Capital, Silver Lake, and JA Technologies ApS.
The big picture: In addition to Unity, enterprise tech firm Snowflake filed to go public, as did Sumo Logic and JFrog. Online project management service Asana, meanwhile, filed for a direct listing.
- Despite Silicon Valley's spike in interest in the direct listing as an alternative to the traditional IPO, Asana will be only the third company to take that route after Spotify in 2018 and Slack last year.
Thanks for reading!
Quote: “Truth will never start out popular in a world more concerned with marketability than righteousness. It will initially suffer ridicule and even violence — yet ultimately it is undeniable. All of humanity is living in a dream world, but suffering real consequences.”
Why it matters: On Aug. 25, 1998, Lauryn Hill released her debut solo album, "The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill." It went on to win five Grammy Awards including Album of the Year, making it the first hip-hop album to ever receive that award.
- Hill also became the first woman to win five Grammys in one night.
- The album has sold more than 8 million copies in the U.S. and 20 million worldwide.
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