The gap in homeownership rates between white and Black Americans could widen further in the coming decades, finds a new analysis from the Urban Institute.

Why it matters: The U.S. is at the starting gates of the Great Wealth Transfer — in which the boomer generation will pass down an estimated $84 trillion between now and 2045 — but only a small share of families will get a sizable inheritance.

Catch up fast: The current 30-point gap between the homeownership rates for Black and white Americans is wider now than it was in 1960, before the passage of civil rights laws prohibiting the housing discrimination that helped create that gulf.

• Even without blatant redlining, the disparity sustained itself as wealth changed hands intergenerationally. Parents who built their wealth by owning homes could pass down houses or money.

State of play: Older white Americans have much more wealth to pass down to the next generation — much of it tied up in their homes. Nearly 83% of white Americans aged 58 and up are homeowners compared with about 59% of Black people aged 58+, per data cited by the Urban Institute.

• Homeownership for those under 58 is lower: 40% for Black households compared to nearly 65% for white households.

How they did it: Using data from a Federal Reserve survey, the researchers look at how much wealth younger families expect to inherit in the coming years.

• They looked at young renter households specifically to estimate how many of these folks could make the leap into homeownership after they receive an inheritance.
• The researchers estimated the number of renter households expecting an inheritance substantial enough to enable them to afford a down payment on a home.

What they found: The Great Wealth Transfer would increase homeownership rates for both Black and white households.

• The increase for young white households is an estimated 7.7 percentage points compared to a 3.4-point increase for Black households.
• The paper projects that the young white homeownership would rise to 72.2% and for young Black families it would increase to 43.4%

The intrigue: The research could be underestimating the effects of wealth transfers on the homeownership gap because the analysis leaves out all the money older Americans — particularly the wealthy — pass on during their lifetime.

• And the researchers note some of that wealth will be spent before it can be passed down on things like medical expenses.

The bottom line: The Great Wealth Transfer isn't so great after all.

Far fewer Black renters under 58 expect to receive an inheritance. And, the expected size of these inheritances are lower.

• The median Black renter who expects an inheritance estimates they'll see $48,000 compared to $200,000 for white renters.

As the S&P 500 hits yet another new record high, all credit must be given to technology stocks — and specifically to Nvidia and the other megacaps that have been driving it higher.

Why it matters: The so-called magnificent seven stocks (Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla) have accounted for about 75% of this year's gains in the S&P 500, per Counterpoint Global — on top of more than half the gains in 2023.

Follow the money: If tech is stripped out of the index, the S&P 500 is still very close to its all-time high on May 17. But on an absolute level, it's significantly less impressive — up 69% over the past five years, compared to a 106% gain once tech stocks are included.

• So far this year the S&P 500 is up 16% overall, and up 9% without technology stocks.

Between the lines: The degree to which the S&P 500 is concentrated in a handful of trillion-dollar companies can be seen either as a worrying development — overexposure to a single sector — or as an encouraging sign that the rest of the market still has a substantial amount of upside.

• Up until now, investors' excitement about AI has mainly manifested in tech stocks. The next phase of the boom could be that the rest of corporate America will be revalued upwards on the basis of broad-based AI-induced productivity improvements.

The bottom line: U.S. stocks have been outperforming in large part because America is home to most of the world's most important technology giants. If the rest of the market starts to catch up, the same dynamic could boost stocks globally, too.