The AI bubble didn't burst on Monday.

Why it matters: What initially looked that morning like a broad selloff in AI stocks turns out in hindsight to have been a more measured recalibration of where the market thinks AI profits are going to flow in the future.

The big picture: The consequences of AI becoming the dominant driver of the global economy are impossible even for a super-intelligence to model, but are certainly more complex than the naive yet highly profitable belief that "Nvidia will be able to retain 90% gross margins more or less indefinitely."

• Nvidia was the defining meme stock of 2024, powered by an army of retail investors working hand-in-glove with their momentum-trade brethren.
• Profitable trades don't last forever, however. The traders always move on eventually, often after having made enormous sums of money.

Follow the money: Nvidia closed yesterday with a market capitalization north of $3 trillion, putting it comfortably in the top three most valuable companies in the world. It's worth 70% more than Saudi Aramco and 24% more than either Alphabet or Amazon.

• That's not what a burst bubble looks like.

Between the lines: The best guide to the highly complex world of AI economics is probably the instantly famous "short case for Nvidia" note that analyst Jeffrey Emanuel posted on Saturday.

• While DeepSeek certainly features in Emanuel's 12,000-word thesis, it's a great deal more complex than the "DeepSeek has singlehandedly disrupted the world of AI" idea that gripped headline writers on Monday.
• It's worth point out that the sell-off came a full week after DeepSeek's R1 AI model was released, and more than a month after the release of the V3 model that competes directly with the likes of OpenAI's GPT-4o.
• Emanuel's thesis is not that DeepSeek on its own is particularly disruptive. Rather, the Chinese AI is a proof of concept: It shows how competitive the space can be, and how much opportunity there is for a broad range of players.

Zoom out: Many companies, including Amazon, Apple and even OpenAI, are investing heavily in trying to build chips that can compete with Nvidia. And while Nvidia's competitive moat has proved extraordinarily strong until now, there are many reasons to believe it will be eroded over time, even by AI tools developed using Nvidia chips.

Where it stands: AI stocks in general didn't have a particularly bad day on Monday, and they certainly didn't have a particularly bad week.

• The market still believes the likes of Meta and Microsoft will spend record amounts of money this year on new data centers filled with Nvidia chips, and is now hopeful those chips will prove to be even more efficient and powerful than originally believed.

The bottom line: If this is what disruption looks like, the AI revolution is going to be remarkably painless.

There's a growing marriage gap in the U.S.: Marriage rates for women without college degrees are falling, while rates for those with four-year degrees are holding steady.

• A fascinating new working paper from researchers at Cornell, Harvard and Yale unpacks the trend.

Why it matters: The drop-off in marriage rates for women without degrees has everything to do with their male counterparts, the researchers find.

How it works: Men without degrees have seen their economic prospects decline over the past few decades, a trend that has been well-documented.

• These financial troubles have led to lower marriage rates for men, and for women without four-year degrees, even as these women have seen their incomes rise.
• In other (potentially outdated) words: a "good" man has become harder to find, at least for women with less than a four-year degree. So they're getting married less.

By the numbers: 71% of women with a bachelor's degree, born in 1980, were married by age 45. That's compared to 52% of women without a degree, per the research.

• The paper looked at government data for women born from 1930 to 1980, and also projected out these numbers through to women born in 1994, and found this trend should continue.

Zoom out: There's been a lot of worrying in recent years that women with degrees would have trouble finding husbands. Fewer men are graduating from college, after all. So who would these ladies marry?

• Turns out that a good-sized share of college-educated woman have always married men without bachelor's degrees, per the research.
• These men tend to be the highest earners among their peers. The non-college educated men, born in 1980, who married college-educated women earned $68,000 a year. That's compared to $46,000 for the other men.
• The pool of men left behind are the ones who are less likely to marry. Their incomes have declined over the years, researchers found.

The bottom line: The declining economic prospects of men are undermining the marriage prospects of women.

Tomorrow is Feb. 1 — the day President Trump said he would impose 25% tariffs on all incoming goods from Canada and Mexico, America's top trading partners, and 10% tariffs on goods from China.

• Trump insisted last night the deadline stands and the tariffs are coming, though he was more vague about oil imports specifically, and the timeline for tariffs on Chinese goods generally.
• But any levies might not take effect right away. It's possible a deal is hashed out and a trade war is avoided, as Bloomberg noted.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported the White House was considering possible off-ramps to avoid tough legal blowback on tariffs.

Why it matters: On the campaign trail, Trump put broad tariffs at the center of his economic pitch. In the White House, he has moved slower than expected, so far using tariffs as leverage to try and score nontrade-related wins, as with Colombia last weekend.

• In the case of Mexico and Canada, Trump wants tighter border controls for immigrants and fentanyl. The FT reports each country is taking steps to tighten up borders.

The intrigue: Officials charged with steering the economy are in limbo. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem told reporters he would spend his weekend "watching the news."

• The Bank of Canada cut interest rates this week, with consideration that such a move would help shield its already ailing economy from tariffs.
• Mexico's central bank questioned whether it should keep cutting rates in the months ahead, given the risk that a U.S. trade war could stoke inflation.
• Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said trade uncertainties were huge, calling the range of possibilities "very, very wide."

What to watch: If Trump moves forward, the tariffs might ignite trade wars across North America with unknown consequences for the economy.

• CEOs are on edge, mentioning tariffs over 100 times in earnings calls already this year.

The bottom line: "Even with a trade deal in place, it seems like nothing is ironclad here," Robert Both, a Toronto-based strategist at TD Bank, tells Axios.