It's increasingly likely that thousands of dockworkers at major ports along the East and Gulf coasts will strike on Oct. 1, those close to the parties tell Axios.

Why it matters: Americans would feel this one. A strike would snarl the economy and presidential politics only weeks before the election.

• If it lasts longer than a few days, a strike raises the prospect of product shortages and higher prices along the lines of the supply chain crisis of 2021 — just in time for the holiday shopping season.
• A strike could cost the economy $5 billion a day, per a JPMorgan analysis.

Between the lines: The situation has the White House in quite the pickle.

• Under the 1947 Taft-Hartley Act, President Biden has the power to step in to avert a strike or stop one once it starts. That's what George W. Bush did in 2002 to avoid a work stoppage at the West Coast ports. Trade groups are begging the White House to step in.
• But Biden bills himself as the most pro-union president in American history. Unions wouldn't look kindly on such a move.
• Meanwhile, voters aren't going to like living in a country kneecapped by a dockworker strike — and they're already in a sour mood on the economy.

Where it stands: So far, the White House has said it won't step in. But once a strike happens, it's hard to see them staying hands-off.

• "We expect the economic impact would be too big to ignore for political purposes and we would be surprised if the strike lasted more than a week," write JPMorgan's transportation analysts.

For the record: "We are monitoring and assessing potential ways to address impacts to U.S. supply chains related to operations at our ports, if necessary," said White House spokesperson Robyn Patterson in a statement.

• "That said, we continue to encourage the parties to continue negotiating towards an agreement that benefits all sides and prevents any disruption."

Flashback: The politics recall a similar snafu in Canada last month. The labor-friendly government declined to step in to prevent a strike of freight rail workers.

• Then, less than 17 hours after workers went on strike, the Canadian government ordered the parties into binding arbitration.
• The work stoppage provided the cover for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's administration to step in.
• It's possible that the situation could unfold similarly in the U.S.

State of play: The parties have not sat down at the negotiating table since early summer.

• Their current agreement expires Monday. The two sides are far apart on pay raises and rules around automation. A strike could start as soon as 12:01am Tuesday.
• "This is very different from most of the other negotiations that I was involved with over the last three years," says John Drake, vice president for transportation, infrastructure, supply chain policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "At this point in time [a strike] will happen."

The 14 ports stretching from Maine to Houston are responsible for more than half of all the goods shipped in containers in and out of the U.S., Bloomberg notes.

Why it matters: A shutdown would affect everything from cars and car parts, to perishable vegetables and fruits — even the inflation-resistant banana — to furniture and all the kinds of things Americans are going to want to buy for the holidays.

• Truck drivers, warehouse workers and factory workers would also feel the slowdown.
• For every day of a strike, it will likely take another five or six days to get the ports operating normally again, experts say.

The big picture: Before the pandemic, supply chain disruptions went largely unnoticed. Now they appear to be happening with some regularity.

• "We just keep seeing these black swan events," says Margaret Kidd, program director of supply chain and logistics technology at the University of Houston.
• After the Covid disruptions, there were shipping issues at the Suez Canal due to war in the Middle East, as well as problems in the Panama Canal because of drought.

The bottom line: Major supply-chain disruptions used to happen maybe twice a decade, says Richard Gehlmann, a principal at Roland Berger, a global consulting firm.

• "It's now almost like it's a constant part of business."

There are roughly 100 billion debit card transactions in the U.S. every year — and one company, Visa, processes more than 60% of them.

Why it matters: Visa charges "supracompetitive prices" for those transactions, per a DOJ complaint filed yesterday against the company.

• That means its prices are significantly higher than would be seen in a truly competitive market — and indeed are significantly higher than the prices charged by its existing competitors.
• Nevertheless, for various reasons outlined in the complaint, merchants continue to use Visa to process the majority of their debit-card transactions.

For the record: "This lawsuit is meritless, and we will defend ourselves vigorously," Visa general counsel Julie Rottenberg said in a statement.

By the numbers: The number of debit card transactions in 2021 grew by 20 billion over 2018, per the Fed's triennial payments study. Over the same period, credit card transactions grew by only 6 billion.

How it works: More than 45% of debit card transactions have to use Visa — they're "non-contestable," in the jargon, which means that because either the issuing bank or the merchant's bank doesn't accept the mandated Visa alternative, Visa is the only option.

• Because Visa has a 100% monopoly on those transactions, it can set an exorbitant "rack rate" on them. The only way for merchants to pay a lower price is to agree to route all or nearly all of their debit transactions to Visa.

Follow the money: "Visa charges over $7 billion in network fees on U.S. debit volume annually, earning Visa $5.6 billion in net revenue," says the complaint.

• "In 2022, Visa earned more revenue from its U.S. debit business than from its U.S. credit business, and more from its debit business in the United States than its debit business in any other region in the world."

The bottom line: Debit is a lot bigger than you probably thought it was.